Reports Predict Surge in State College Enrollment

College enrollment in California is rising faster than predicted and the state’s next governor will have to help colleges find room for an extra 538,000 students in coming years, according to two reports released Wednesday.

The reports came, in part, as a rebuttal to a state legislative analyst’s report this year dismissing the notion that a “tidal wave” of students will swamp the state’s colleges and universities by 2005.

Poring over the numbers and methodology, a panel of experts concluded that not only was the initial forecast correct, but that it actually underestimated the coming influx by 73,000 students.

In a companion report, the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education warned in an open “memorandum” to the next governor that he will have to help plan for these students or forsake the state’s long-standing promise of providing college education for all eligible students.

“It’s not that California has a bad plan,” said Patrick M. Callan, the higher education center’s president. “It’s that it doesn’t have a plan at all.”

Indeed, various commissions and think tanks have issued warnings in recent years that the state’s higher education policies need rethinking. They all point out that it would be horrendously expensive--and even unwise--to build the extra community college, California State University and University of California campuses needed to handle the crush of undergraduates. Alternative suggestions include expanding campuses and holding more classes year round.

For now, the future needs of higher education have been overshadowed by the formidable task of fixing the state’s poorly performing elementary and high schools.

David W. Breneman, an educator brought in from the University of Virginia to write the memo to the governor, echoed earlier calls for the state’s colleges and universities to help turn around “the sorry state of K-12 education . . . and improve student performance.”

He questioned the wisdom of building a UC campus just outside Merced. “I’m not sure California needs another research university,” he said. He also suggested that regional clusters of UC, Cal State and community college campuses make it easier for students to transfer courses so they can complete their degrees more quickly.