GOP Registration Edge Takes Suspense Out of Most Races

It is a delightful political position for Dick Ackerman. In the swirl of the campaign season, he doesn’t really have to campaign.

The two-term Republican assemblyman from Fullerton is using lawn signs recycled from his first race. His campaign war room is a room at home. “I have no radio spots, no TV,” he noted. In fact, Ackerman mulled long and hard before grudgingly digging into his political piggy bank to finance a lone district mailer “to keep my name out in front of folks.”

Election day is practically upon us, but you’d hardly know it around the political fiefdoms of Orange County. Aside from a few bitterly fought contests in Central County, the tussle for legislative and congressional seats in America’s most Republican of regions is in many respects a foregone conclusion.

The reason is party registration. In nine of 11 legislative districts and five of six congressional districts attached to Orange County, voters in the Republican ranks dwarf the Democratic electorate. A few examples:

* On Ackerman’s Assembly turf, Republicans hold a 54% to 31% registration edge, giving him an overwhelming advantage over Democratic challenger Frank Legas.

* Assemblyman Bill Campbell (R-Villa Park) enjoys an even cushier ratio: GOP voters outnumber Democrats by more than 2 to 1, making it the most Republican legislative seat in the state.

* Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) can claim a similar distinction among the state’s congressional delegation, with Republican registration at more than 54% compared to just 28% for the Democrats.

The gulf in registration is so great that Republican incumbents such as Ackerman, Campbell and Assemblywoman Marilyn C. Brewer (R-Irvine) don’t even talk about winning or losing. Instead, the legislative trio have a friendly bet over who can capture the biggest share of the vote. The winner gets a dinner out at an eatery specializing in multi-olive martinis.

Brewer, whose only election day foe is Natural Law Party candidate Nat Adam, would seem to have the edge. But even she won’t threaten the mark Ackerman set in 1996 when he didn’t have any ballot opponents.

“Last time, Ackerman got 100% of the vote, and everyone has been trying to catch him ever since,” joked Assemblyman Scott R. Baugh (R-Huntington Beach).

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Baugh, perhaps more than any other candidate in recent history, epitomizes the GOP’s Orange County advantage.

In 1996, he was reelected to a second term--beating his Democrat opponent 57% to 35%. The easy victory was notable only because Baugh was hit during the heat of the election season with a multiple-count felony indictment on charges of campaign wrongdoing from an earlier race.

Though some of the charges have since been dismissed, Baugh still faces two felony and 10 misdemeanor counts stemming from the scandal. But most pundits predict he’ll once again hold the seat easily.

Democratic challenger Marie H. Fennell, a 77-year-old clinical social worker, doesn’t have much campaign cash and can’t command the attention of voters with the crush of political mail needed to mount an effective fight.

She’s trying to make up for it by attending events throughout the 67th Assembly District and aggressively battering Baugh over his positions on health care, wetlands protection and union-backed prevailing wages. Fennell also would like Baugh to address the felony charges.

“I do think it’s important he talk about these things,” Fennell said. “But he’s not even campaigning. He hasn’t put out a single sign. He’s not put out a single brochure.”

That’s only partly true. Baugh’s campaign office has handed out a smattering of brochures left over from the primary to anyone who happens by.

Most of Baugh’s hours are spent toiling on behalf of fellow Republican lawmakers engaged in competitive races elsewhere in the state. His campaign office has become the Southern California focal point for the Assembly GOP caucus, abuzz with activity 18 hours a day. The incumbent plans to give upward of $100,000 from his own campaign war chest to fellow Republicans.

Baugh can practically ignore his own race because of the lopsided numbers: Republicans represent more than 53% of the electorate, while Democrats stand at 31%.

“In many respects, we’re the flip side of the Bay Area or parts of Los Angeles,” Baugh said. “The Bay Area represents a liberal bastion and Orange County represents a conservative bastion.”

In fact, the Republican edge in Orange County pales compared to some of the registration ratios Democrats enjoy elsewhere in the state. Democrats command a better than 2-to-1 registration advantage in 45 of the 172 congressional and legislative districts in California. Republicans have a similar margin in only one seat statewide, Campbell’s 71st Assembly District.

Democrats also have far bigger margins in many districts. In the central Los Angeles 48th Assembly District, for instance, Democrats are nearly 82% of the electorate, Republicans just 5%.

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A lot of the reason behind the surplus of safe Democratic districts is the politics of gerrymandering. Democrats have been in the majority of the California Legislature for much of the century, and thus have controlled the process of redrafting district boundaries at the beginning of each decade.

But human behavior plays an even more significant role. Driven by housing prices as well as cultural, racial and religious factors, people sharing similar values and political views often cluster in the same areas.

“For a variety of reasons, there’s concentrations of certain types of voters in certain areas,” said Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies, a Sacramento think tank. “It would be impossible to establish a district in East Los Angeles where a Republican could be competitive, simply because an overwhelming majority of people there are Democrats. Similarly, it would be very difficult to create a competitive seat in Republican enclaves of Orange County.”

Despite a disadvantage, some Democrats are running hard. In the 45th congressional race, Patricia W. Neal is spending big and getting union help against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), who enjoys a Republican voter registration edge of 50% to 32%.

Meanwhile, Democrat Mike Matsuda is campaigning aggressively in the 68th Assembly District, where the Republican edge is only 43% to 39%. Despite the closer margin, Republican Ken Maddox is considered the front-runner.

But by and large, Orange County’s state and federal seats are considered safe for Republicans.

What sort of lawmakers are produced in such districts? The conventional wisdom among political scientists is that safe seats yield the ideological extremes--liberal Democrats in Democratic enclaves or conservative Republicans if the GOP rules.

That is certainly true in Orange County, where Republican primary candidates routinely jostle to claim the imprimatur as most conservative. The county’s legislative and congressional delegations, composed almost uniformly of rock-ribbed conservatives, reflect decades of such political breeding.

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Though the GOP primaries in Orange County can be brutal fights, once a Republican captures a safe seat they rarely lose it. And sometimes that clout can translate when a candidate runs for higher office.

Assemblyman Bill Morrow, for instance, is a Republican from Oceanside who has represented southern Orange County for the past six years. Forced out of his seat this year by term limits, Morrow ran for the 38th State Senate District seat. But instead of a raucous GOP primary, he managed to skate by without a Republican primary challenger.

On Tuesday, he faces four challengers, including Irvine Democrat Madelene E. Arakelian, who is running a “no-dollar campaign.” And he is expected to cruise to victory.

As a result, Morrow isn’t running hard. No mail. Few lawn signs. But lots of sweat on behalf of GOP candidates in more competitive districts elsewhere in the state.

“Without trying to be too presumptuous or cocky, the practical reality is the Republican strength in most of Orange County is such that it would take phenomenal resources for a Democrat to capture one of these seats,” Morrow said. “And those are resources Democrats wisely choose not to invest.”

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Political Locks

Most legislative and congressional districts in Orange County are dominated by Republican voters, making election a cinch for GOP candidates. Among the most lopsided this season:

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GOP Point District Republican Democrat Edge 47th Congressional 54.46 28.86 25.60 GOP incumbent: Christopher Cox 48th Congressional 53.86 27.55 26.31 GOP incumbent: Ron Packard 38th State Senate 49.94 29.96 19.98 GOP candidate: Bill Morrow 70th Assembly 53.40 28.56 24.84 GOP incumbent: Marilyn C. Brewer 71st Assembly 56.44 27.35 29.09 GOP incumbent: Bill Campbell 72nd Assembly 53.61 30.94 22.67 GOP incumbent: Dick Ackerman

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Note: Other parties’ registration, not shown, ranges from 15.45% to 20.10%

Source: California secretary of state