Poll Has McGrath, Strickland Even in Assembly Race

Democratic candidate Roz McGrath’s low-key campaign is in a virtual dead heat with well-funded Republican Tony Strickland in their race for an open Assembly seat in Ventura County, according to a new Democratic poll.

The poll taken this week shows McGrath, a 51-year-old Somis kindergarten teacher, and Strickland, a 28-year-old legislative aide from Thousand Oaks, in a statistical tie with less than seven weeks remaining before the Nov. 3 election.

The poll of 400 likely voters in the 37th Assembly District--traditionally a Republican stronghold that stretches from Oxnard to Thousand Oaks--found that 31% favored McGrath while 30% supported Strickland.

Six percent favored Reform Party candidate Michael Farris, and 33% of respondents were undecided. Possible margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.

While McGrath staffers described the poll as a representative sampling of district voters, Strickland immediately challenged its validity.

“I think it’s absolutely false,” Strickland said. “It’s a real credibility question. I did better than that in the primary election, where I got 35% or 36%. This seat is a Republican seat. It’s always been a Republican seat, and it always will be a Republican seat.”

Yet, the results are a shot in the arm for McGrath, who is trying to overcome a Republican advantage in registered voters of 3,500 and a shortfall in fund-raising.

An ebullient McGrath said she spent Thursday hustling money by calling potential large contributors, an array of labor and education political action committees--and the leadership of the Democratic Party.

“I think this shows we can definitely win this race,” McGrath said. “I’m probably making 200 calls today to Sacramento because of the results of this poll.”

Although the 37th is generally considered a safe Republican district, Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa said recently that if McGrath could show she has a chance to win, then the Assembly Democratic Caucus would funnel money into her campaign.

Villaraigosa could not be reached for comment Thursday afternoon. But Darry Sragow, campaign manager for the Assembly Democratic Caucus, said the chances of party help for McGrath just increased dramatically.

“The first thing we look at is can our candidate win,” he said. “And if, in a district like this, our candidate is in a statistical dead heat, that is phenomenal news. It’s not a guarantee that we’ll dive into the race with both feet, but we’ll look at it very carefully.

“And if we have a good chance of winning, then we’ll be in that race with everything we can provide.”

McGrath said she thinks large party contributions are on the way. She believes it will take $500,000 to win the seat, which is being vacated by Nao Takasugi (R-Oxnard) because of term limits.

So far she has raised only about $40,000. Strickland spent $189,000 to win a highly competitive five-candidate primary among Republicans. He says he has raised $115,000 since then, and sees no problem in raising much more from pro-business and socially conservative PACs.

McGrath said the poll shows that even Republican voters prefer a more moderate candidate than Strickland, a protege of conservative Assemblyman Tom McClintock (R-Northridge). And they want one with more experience in everyday life than Strickland can claim from his years as an aide for two assemblymen.

“I think the poll shows that, as a conservative Democrat who is a teacher and a farmer, my priorities are more in line with the concerns of Ventura County families than my opponent’s,” she said. “I think basically what people thought was that out of the two candidates one had life experience as an employer and employee working in a school and on a farm and in various nonprofits, compared to a 28-year-old who has very limited experience.”

McGrath was referring to portions of the poll where likely voters responded to a brief statement about both her experience and Strickland’s.

After hearing the descriptions, 38% favored McGrath, 29% were for Strickland and 6% for Farris. The description of Strickland, however, was only two lines long while McGrath’s was three.

Strickland, chief aide to McClintock until he took a leave to run for office last December, said the Democratic poll is not to be taken seriously.

“The best poll is the one on election day, and without the cross-tab [details] it really means nothing,” Strickland said. “We can’t tell who she’s polling. Is it all Democrats. Maybe they polled all of [heavily Democratic] Oxnard. Who knows.”

Strickland’s consultant, Joe Giardiello, said the real test of the Democratic poll will be how the Republican candidate’s own survey holds up against it when results are announced within the next week.

“She says if they show a good poll, then the party will be there for them,” Giardiello said. “What a coincidence. They then come up with a good poll.”

Phil Giarrizzo, a Sacramento consultant for McGrath, said the poll was a good one.

“The sample is absolutely a reflection of all voters in the district. It was fairly and equitably distributed throughout the district and was even a little bit high on Republicans to deal with the potential variation in turnout.”

And the poll was particularly telling in its detail, Giarrizzo said.

The more pollsters told voters about positions of McGrath and Strickland on issues, the more voters favored the more experienced, more moderate McGrath, he said.

“The polarization of Strickland’s positions are very clearly out of step with mainstream thought,” Giarrizzo said, “especially his position on carrying concealed weapons and allowing assault weapons and his opposition to abortion even in the case of rape or incest.”

Likely voters were also told that Strickland was a founding member of the National Rifle Assn.’s Members Council of Ventura County, that he favors publicly funded student vouchers for private schools and that “he believes just about every citizen should be allowed to carry a concealed weapon,” Giarrizzo said.

Strickland, in fact, does not oppose abortion in case of rape or incest, consultant Giardiello said. And he favors the right to carry handguns only for law-abiding citizens after proper application and waiting periods.

The poll statement did give him credit for taking the lead in an effort to eliminate a vehicle tax this year, and pledging to fight to make sure the cuts actually take place.

As for McGrath, voters were told that she is a teacher, a partner in her family’s farm, a fourth-generation county resident. Her positions were described as strongly pro education and pro law enforcement.

After receiving that general description, voters favored McGrath over Strickland 47% to 24% with Farris moving up to 13%.

Strickland consultant Giardiello was not impressed.

“This district is not going to elect an extreme liberal,” he said, noting that over the last week McGrath has started referring to herself as a conservative Democrat, not a moderate.

“Suddenly she realizes if she wants to win she has to change,” he said.