Rethink This One, Russia

Except in the aftermath of the world wars, Washington has had only limited influence on the fate of territorial bits and pieces of Europe. The European powers have sorted out these disputes, with the former Soviet Union often a key player. Now Moscow again has a role in a crisis, this time in Yugoslavia, and how it plays the hand will be closely watched. So far the Russians are standing firmly with Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milosevic, but that position has risks.

Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov did not go to Belgrade this week to give Milosevic a pat on the back. While Slavic and former communist bonds exist between the two countries, Primakov knows that Milosevic can hurt Moscow’s interests, which include increasingly important support from Western institutions at a time of economic straits.

Other connections to the West run through military arrangements in Europe. For instance, revisions in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, which specified NATO and Soviet limits on tanks, artillery and aircraft during the Cold War, are expected to be approved this year. A new accord could be ready for acceptance at a November summit of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, of which Russia is a member.

Another key to Russian cooperation in seeking a solution to the Kosovo crisis is the prospect of an International Monetary Fund rescue package for the stumbling Russian economy. While unrelated, it is bound to cast a shadow on diplomatic efforts to resolve the Yugoslav disaster. In its own interest, Moscow should weigh the long-term importance of Western economic support against its military ties with Belgrade. Russia underlined those ties Wednesday by announcing, disturbingly, that it was sending a reconnaissance ship into the Mediterranean and placing other ships on stand-by.

Nevertheless, there is a clear downside for Russia in standing by Milosevic. Efforts to repolish Moscow’s international image in the post-Cold War world have been dulled by Milosevic’s brutal campaign to rid Kosovo of its ethnic Albanian population through forced emigration and genocide. If Primakov made any effort in Belgrade to curb the Yugoslav military, he clearly failed, and subsequent news from Moscow indicates no decline in support for Milosevic.

Russia should review its backing of a bloody regime. Slavic bonds and a shared communist history cannot possibly justify these atrocities. Moscow should look to its future.