Many Macedonians Fear Being NATO Invasion Route

While public support grows in major NATO countries for sending ground troops into Serbia’s Kosovo province, most people and politicians in Macedonia remain dead set against it.

Macedonians worry that long after NATO pulls out of the region, their small and weak country would suffer the wrath of their neighbor to the north.

Macedonian officials have demanded and been given assurances that NATO forces will not invade Kosovo from Macedonia.

“Our position that Macedonian territory cannot be used for offensive activities toward any neighbor state was affirmed,” Macedonian Foreign Minister Aleksandar Dimitrov told reporters after meeting in Brussels earlier this week with NATO leaders including Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

But Macedonian politicians and political observers are skeptical that such promises will count for much if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization decides to battle Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s forces on the ground.

“We’ve been given a lot of assurances, but we know that if Mr. Clinton gives an order, it will happen,” said Tito Petkovski, a member of the Macedonian parliament.

“Frankly speaking, no one is asking Macedonia,” said Branko Gerovski, editor of Dnevnik, the largest Macedonian daily newspaper. “Sure we have an official statement that we will not allow NATO to use Macedonian territory to send ground troops into Yugoslavia. But I’m sure we cannot stop it.”

In recent weeks, Macedonia has struggled to cope with tens of thousands of ethnic Albanian refugees from Kosovo, a southern province of Serbia, the dominant Yugoslav republic.

Gerovski also pointed to protests that broke out in Macedonia after NATO started bombing Yugoslavia as an indication of the passions that could be unleashed within the nation if a ground war broke out--and that could threaten its stability.

The government is lobbying for Macedonia to become a member of NATO so that it no longer has to worry about its security, but prospects look dim.

NATO officials, while insisting that they plan no invasion, acknowledge that Macedonia would be one of several likely staging areas if one were to take place.

Realistically, political analysts here do not understand how NATO could resist using Macedonia. The roads linking Macedonia to Kosovo are relatively developed because both were part of the old Yugoslav federation.

Albania, on the other hand, cut itself off from the rest of the world for decades, and much of its border area with Yugoslavia is mountainous.

NATO clearly is aware of Macedonia as the obvious route. A NATO study in October looked into bringing troops into Yugoslavia through Macedonia. NATO has already moved 12,230 soldiers into Macedonia--and has 2,000 more en route. The soldiers were deployed here to be ready to go into Kosovo as a peacekeeping force if a peace agreement had been reached last month between Milosevic and Kosovo’s majority ethnic Albanians. Milosevic refused to sign the agreement, prompting NATO to launch its air offensive three weeks ago.

Maj. Trey Cate, a NATO spokesman in Skopje, the Macedonian capital, said NATO does not see Albania as an option for bringing the peacekeeping forces into the region but added that “anything is possible” if NATO wants to do it badly enough.

The logic of sending ground troops through Macedonia has the people and politicians here spooked.

“If NATO ground troops were sent through Macedonia, that would mean that Macedonia would be involved in the war. I’m not just worried about this, I’m scared to death,” Petkovski said. “Milosevic would perceive us as aggressors, as would the Serbian people. That would be unforgivable, and the friendship we share will be destroyed.

“NATO cannot be here through eternity,” Petkovski added. “NATO forces will leave in two to five years, and we’re going to stay here.”

Even if a ground invasion were launched without using Macedonia as an entry point, Macedonia might still be drawn into the conflict because of the large contingent of NATO troops based here.

Politicians here argue that the whole region, and not just Macedonia, is at risk if Macedonia is perceived by Serbian leaders as a participant in a war.

“What the government is trying to do is to raise the awareness of the international community of the possible threat if Serbia attacks Macedonia,” Gerovski said. “It will be very risky for all the region. During this century, there have been four wars in this small country--two Balkan wars and two world wars.”

But most Macedonians, a large percentage of whom have close relatives in Serbia, see no danger.

“Serbia would never attack us, I just know it,” said Vlatko Jokic, 33.