Isolated, Taiwan Risks Altering the Status Quo

After years of shrouding Taiwan’s status in a policy of creative ambiguity, obscuring ambitions toward independence in fuzzy terminology, President Lee Teng-hui wants to make something clear.

“Taiwan is not a renegade province of China,” Lee said last week in one of the most straightforward assertions of his political career. “It is a sovereign state. What’s more, Lee Teng-hui is not the troublemaker.”

The trouble is, ambiguity, not clarity, has long preserved the peace between Taiwan and mainland China, whose rival governments precariously coexist as “two political entities” under “one China.” But China has threatened to use force if Taiwan declares independence, and Beijing believes Lee came dangerously close last month when he termed Taiwan a “special state.”

So if Lee is not a troublemaker, then what is he? And is his move a shrewd maneuver that will win the island diplomatic elbow room or a giant blunder that will draw down the wrath of China and risk American goodwill?

After Lee casually described the cross-strait ties as a “special state-to-state relationship” in an interview with a German broadcaster, China responded with military exercises and Washington dispatched envoys to both Beijing and Taipei to calm things down: Tell us you didn’t really mean it, they whispered, and all will be forgiven. Ironically, by seeking a “clarification,” the U.S. and China actually want Taiwan to retreat to ambiguity once again.

But this time, Lee won’t back down. A letter of “clarification” sent Friday was meant to satisfy officials in Beijing and Washington by reaffirming Taiwan’s desire to eventually rejoin the motherland. But it also underlined Taiwan’s determination to do it on its own terms. Beijing returned the diplomatic letter unopened.

Analysts worry that the face-off might spiral into a repeat of 1996 tensions, in which Beijing peppered the waters off Taiwan with dummy missiles and Washington sent two aircraft carriers to the strait.

President Driven by Single-Minded Mission

China’s newspapers have called Lee “a villain who will leave a stink for a thousand years.” Supporters in Taiwan compare him to a cunning martial arts “kendo master.” Others view him as “an obstinate old man who blew it with his big mouth.” But all agree that he is a man with a single-minded mission to prepare a separate place for Taiwan in the world before his presidency ends in March.

It might be a futile cause: Beijing regards Taiwan as a prodigal province, separated from the motherland since 1949. China won’t recognize Taiwan’s democratically elected government and won’t negotiate directly with Taipei. It insists that there is one China and that Beijing is its ruler. And all but a few dozen countries officially agree.

But that’s exactly why Lee decided to try something different, say his advisors--Taiwan’s attempts at accommodation were only deepening its isolation. Not only was Taiwan losing its dignity by having doors symbolically slammed in its face in deference to Beijing, said Foreign Minister Jason Hu, it was also losing diplomatic ground. “Do you think we should wait until it costs us our survival?” Hu asked.

The economic powerhouse can’t join the World Trade Organization until Beijing does, he laments. It is not a member of the United Nations or nonpolitical bodies like the World Bank, Interpol and the International Red Cross federation. Beijing has blocked it out of all but 16 international organizations, three of which are concerned with tuna fishing.

“Dollar diplomacy,” using monetary investments to win political allegiances, has secured recognition by 29 countries but is becoming more costly and less effective. Taiwan’s newest convert, Papua New Guinea, canceled its decision to establish ties last month after pressure from China and other countries. So Lee decided it was “time for a fresh start,” said the president’s deputy, Lin Bih-jaw.

Other pressures had been building. The U.S. and Beijing were pushing Taipei to advance from functional issues like fishing rights to the political aspects of reunification in talks scheduled for this autumn, and to make a commitment to keep the peace. Lee insisted that if Taiwan comes to the negotiating table, it would be as an equal partner, not a subordinate province.

Lee struggled to find a way to establish Taiwan’s status through precedents in international law. In June, a task force commissioned nearly a year ago to find ways to strengthen Taiwan’s position came up with a “one nation, two states” concept, based on divided countries, such as Germany and Vietnam, that eventually reunified. Rather than consult with Beijing, or even Washington, Lee casually introduced the new “special state” idea in an interview with Germany’s Deutsche Welle radio station on July 9.

Despite the offhand introduction, the world reacted as if Lee had lighted the fuse on a time bomb.

The head of the Mainland Affairs Council, Su Chi, who had been instrumental in formulating the new strategy, was visiting Washington when he heard the news. “I was caught by surprise.”

But, he quickly added, “there is no change in our policy from before.” Though the term “special state” is new, Taiwan’s demands are not. During a groundbreaking visit to China by Taiwan’s top envoy for cross-strait relations, Koo Chen-fu, last year, he told President Jiang Zemin that Taiwan would rejoin the mainland when China is a democracy--a distant prospect--and asked that China treat Taiwan as an equal--an impossibility. China did not respond.

“It is important to set the terms before negotiations,” Su said. “China’s technique is to set up a framework of principles. If you accept this frame, you have already lost half the negotiation.”

But critics worry there is more to lose if there are no talks at all. “[Lee’s] term is limited, so he wants to set a new road for his followers,” said Julian Kuo, a political science professor at Soochow University in Taipei and an advisor to an opposition party. “But now he has sabotaged the talks.”

Taiwanese officials say they don’t know why there has been such a fuss. “We didn’t expect such a large international reaction,” Su said. “We were just stating the reality.”

As the dust clears, though, Taiwan is finding that its situation is less about reality than Realpolitik: Each side of the China-U.S.-Taiwan triangle is carefully balancing its interests. U.S.-China ties have been severely strained over the North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombing of China’s embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in May and American accusations of Chinese espionage. But instead of widening the gap between them, Taiwan’s move gave President Clinton and Jiang a chance to talk again.

Still, while the U.S. has seemed to be edging closer to Beijing in the past year, Washington has continued to send Pentagon advisors almost weekly to Taiwan, and four F-16s were delivered to the island the same week that the latest fracas began. Though American envoys warn Taiwan not to take advantage of U.S. goodwill, Lee is counting on U.S. support if times get tougher.

Stance Draws Backing of Many Taiwanese

Despite the world furor, Lee reaped some benefits at home. By drawing a line in the sand, he has played to his people’s aspirations for international respect. Polls show that the majority of Taiwan’s 23 million people desire autonomy from China--if not outright independence--though most also feel it is not worth a war. If tensions escalate into military action, though, Lee’s bravado will soon seem like recklessness.

Lee’s move also came the same week that his party’s opponents announced their presidential candidacy, and the furor blew them off the front pages. By taking a clear stand, Lee co-opted the position of pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bien and forced his leading rival, the well-liked James Soong, to take the unpopular ground closest to Beijing.

In the long term, though, if Lee would like to leave a legacy of an autonomous--or even independent--Taiwan, he may be going about it the wrong way, analysts say.

“Do we gain anything by pushing the status quo?” asked C.V. Chen, a lawyer who was Taiwan’s first negotiator for the Straits Exchange Foundation. Lee is not winning any concessions from China but merely “inviting the suspicion of someone who is very irrational and very powerful. It is bravery without wisdom.”