Montenegro Demands That Serbia Loosen Its Grip

Risking yet another violent split in Yugoslavia, Montenegro on Thursday demanded a radical loosening of links with its sister republic, Serbia, and failing that, complete independence.

Montenegro’s pro-Western government wants control over federal troops on its soil, foreign affairs and other matters, and the republic threatened to call a referendum on secession from what is left of Yugoslavia if Belgrade refuses.

The ultimatum was laid out by the Montenegrin government in 15 pages of proposed reforms. Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in recent negotiations rejected the republic’s demands for more self-rule in a confederation with Serbia.

Analysts differ on whether Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic will risk provoking a war, but they agree that the dangers are real because Milosevic’s regime is crumbling and he may be desperate.

“My hunch is Djukanovic is clever as a politician, and quite experienced now, and I don’t think he will push it over the edge,” Zarko Korac, an outspoken critic of Milosevic, said in Belgrade, the Yugoslav and Serbian capital.

“He will try to get the most he can get out of the circumstances without complete separation. He isn’t going to cross that Rubicon. Not yet. Maybe sometime in the future,” Korac said.

But Djukanovic, the democratically elected leader of a coalition government, doesn’t sound like he is bluffing either, and analysts say Milosevic has to give up something to avoid a dangerous crisis.

“It’s serious,” Korac said. “It isn’t blackmail.”

Djukanovic said recently that Milosevic would have six weeks to accept the demands in Montenegro’s plan for a “Commonwealth of States of Montenegro and Serbia.”

If his answer is “no,” Djukanovic said he would call a referendum on independence. Other former Yugoslav republics did the same, including Bosnia-Herzegovina just before fighting erupted there in 1992.

Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic said the plan would allow the republic to pursue its own development through closer ties with the rest of Europe without harming Serbia.

Early in his conflict with NATO, Milosevic named a hard-line ally commander of the Yugoslav army in Montenegro to replace a general who had maintained reasonably smooth relations with the republic’s government. Milosevic controls army forces in Montenegro, but Djukanovic controls the police and can claim the support of most Montenegrins.

Vojislav Seselj, an ultranationalist Serbian leader, warned Thursday that the Yugoslav army would stop any move by Montenegro to separate, “like the American [army] would if California tries to go away.”

But even after so much senseless killing in the Balkans, Korac finds it hard to believe that Milosevic, whose parents were Montenegrins, and Djukanovic would start yet another war.

“With Milosevic, you never know,” Korac said. “But to see the Yugoslav or Serbian army shooting at Montenegrins, even for me is very hard to imagine.”

Djukanovic also must be careful because northern Montenegro is traditionally pro-Serbian. Some Milosevic aides, including Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic, are Montenegrins and still claim some support there.

There also is an ethnic Albanian minority whom nationalists in Kosovo, a province of Serbia, dream of uniting with a Greater Albania.

The U.S. has quietly urged Djukanovic not to complicate matters so soon after the war over Kosovo, but Montenegro’s government recently made a veiled invitation for NATO intervention by suggesting that the peacekeepers in the province vacation there.

State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said Thursday that Montenegro’s leaders exhibited a “measured and rational approach to political and economic reform,” which the United States supported.

But the Clinton administration opposed independence for Montenegro.

“We think that they should continue to work within Yugoslavia to ensure their rights are protected,” Rubin said.

Earlier this week, Djukanovic met with Russian Prime Minister Sergei V. Stepashin, which must have left Milosevic, an indicted war crimes suspect, feeling more angry and cornered than ever, Korac said.

Given the risks of another war, and Milosevic’s mounting problems in Serbia, Korac said his “gut feeling is that Djukanovic is going to get most of what he wants.”

One of the most difficult demands will be Montenegro’s insistence on creating its own currency to help free it from Serbia’s economy, which already was collapsing under mismanagement and economic sanctions. North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombs made matters much worse.

Djukanovic also is insisting that the government in Podgorica, Montenegro’s capital, have sole command over federal troops in the republic, which would not allow them to be deployed outside Montenegro.

Montenegro wants to reduce Yugoslavia’s two-chamber parliament to just one, with the number of seats split equally between Serbia and Montenegro.

The weaker central government would be composed of a six-person “Council of Ministers” instead of the current Cabinet, which has more than 20 ministers and is dominated by Milosevic’s allies.

But like Milosevic, who built his political career on managing crises, usually of his own making, Djukanovic also might have more to gain by keeping the confrontation with Belgrade under control rather than pushing for outright independence.

With a population of only 630,000 compared with Serbia’s 10 million, and a tiny economy even next to the crumbling ruins of Serbia’s, Montenegro would have a tough time surviving on its own.

Opposition to Milosevic, including clerics in the Serbian Orthodox Church, appears to be growing stronger by the day, and democrats are convinced that they will soon force him from office.

“If you have a completely democratic Serbia, frankly, how important is Montenegro going to be to the world?” Korac asked.

Korac said Djukanovic is the West’s darling now. “Milosevic is Darth Vader, and everyone seen next to him looks like a moral giant,” he said. “His shadow is so dark, anyone next to him looks like God’s son himself.”