U.S. Warns China Again on Taiwan

The Clinton administration on Friday repeated its warning of grave consequences if China takes military action against Taiwan following high-level hints from Beijing that it may use force to resolve a half-century-old dispute.

Chinese officials began making the rounds in Washington this week, asking what the U.S. response would be to some form of Chinese military action against Taiwan. Most of the contacts were with nongovernmental experts, although at least one administration official was approached.

Administration officials sought to minimize the impact of what they described as little more than psychological warfare. Nevertheless, White House spokesman David Leavy said, “Any effort to resolve the issue of Taiwan by other than peaceful means would be considered a grave concern to the United States.”

Liu Xiaoming, China’s deputy chief of mission at its embassy here and the country’s senior diplomat in the U.S. while Ambassador Li Zhaoxing is attending leadership meetings in China, took the lead in making the inquiries. Maj. Gen. Gong Xianfu, a Chinese military attache, also took part, according to China scholars here.

“The Chinese are making inquiries in order to try to determine what the cost would be to China of delivering some sort of blow to Taiwan,” said Douglas Paal, an expert at the Washington think tank Asia Pacific Policy Center, who was visited by Chinese officials.

He said China seemed to be trying to figure out “what would be the least costly method of taking some action [against Taiwan] in a military sense.”

The Chinese effort might have been designed simply to gather intelligence about what the United States would do in a crisis. U.S. and Taiwan officials believe that China was caught off guard in 1996 when the Clinton administration reacted to a Chinese missile launch by sending two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait in what was the biggest show of U.S. naval power in Asia since the Vietnam War.

“They’re trying to gauge what the American reaction will be to different options they may pursue,” said Robert Manning of the Council on Foreign Relations, another Asia expert whose views were sought by the Chinese.

Although the inquiries were unusually blatant, U.S. officials said they did not seem to indicate a dramatic change in Chinese policy.

“I don’t think there’s anything new in what we’re hearing,” Leavy said. “China has a long-standing position that Taiwan is an internal matter, that they want to see it resolved peacefully, but they don’t rule out the use of force.”

Since the defeated Nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese civil war five decades ago, the Communist government in Beijing has vowed to reunite the island with the mainland, by force if necessary. Almost from the start, the U.S. has sought to discourage military action across the Taiwan Strait. Washington has never ruled out using military force to defend Taiwan, but it has never stated unambiguously that it would go to war to protect the island under any and all circumstances.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a dark-horse candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, called for the administration to send a stern message to Beijing.

“We must be very clear with Beijing,” he said Friday. “They must be made to understand that the use of force would be a serious mistake in judgment, a serious mistake with very grave consequences.”

Some experts suggested that, by making the provocative inquiries, Beijing might have been goading the U.S. to persuade Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to back down from his assertion that Taiwan and China should deal with each other on a “state-to-state” basis.

Others suggested that the Chinese Embassy in Washington and the Foreign Ministry might be trying to gather evidence with which to persuade hard-liners in the Chinese leadership and army that it would be costly and unwise for China to move against Taiwan.

U.S. officials doubt that China has the military capability to mount an invasion of the island.

“The intelligence community has not seen any extraordinary developments or signs that [China] is mobilizing for military action on the Taiwan Strait,” Leavy said.

Among the options China was said to be considering was to seize one of the small Taiwanese-held islands off the Chinese mainland and then to depart quickly, before the U.S. had time to intervene.

Such an action might have little long-term effect, but it would demonstrate China’s military power to Taiwan. However, it might also galvanize U.S. and other international public opinion against China.

Other military options were said to include covert action by Chinese intelligence operatives in Taiwan; deployment of special forces to Taiwan to take out power grids; or a blockade of Taiwan’s harbors.

However, those consulted by the Chinese diplomats, and other Asia experts, generally agreed that China will hold off on any significant actions against Taiwan until after Oct. 1, when the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China will be observed.

And many believe that Beijing might not act after that time because even a small or brief military conflict with Taiwan could have damaging consequences for China.

Moreover, any such action could backfire against China’s interests in Taiwan by harming the chances of independent presidential candidate James Soong, who is thought to be more supportive than other candidates of eventual reunification.

“[Chinese leaders] don’t have any good military options,” Manning said. “This whole thing is a lot of Kabuki.”