Iowa Straw Poll Emerges as High-Stakes Affair

Belying the carnival-like atmosphere of the Iowa straw poll, presidential campaigns could rise or fall on the Saturday night vote. Front-runner George W. Bush’s campaign was particularly confident, and the other candidates acknowledged he was the man to beat.

With free food and free music, the straw poll had the appearance of a political free-for-all. But it is much more than that to nine Republican presidential candidates.

“This is the only thing shaping the race for a while,” said Rich Galen, a GOP political operative who flew from Washington to witness the spectacle. “We’ll have no way to measure what’s going on other than polls and money for months.”

The “straw poll” is an unscientific beauty contest, eerily unpredictable. Not once has the straw poll winner gone on to win the nomination.

Any Iowa resident with a ticket ($25 each, purchased by campaigns for anybody who asks) can cast a vote after a day of free food, live music and curious sideshows--such as the sight of Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson riding his Harley Davidson in support of Bush.

Bush aides said Friday they expected to far exceed their goal of 5,000 votes in the straw poll, and were looking for a big win. A convincing victory would suggest that he can organize at local levels. A weak showing would tarnish the aura of inevitability Bush has so carefully crafted since his landslide reelection in Texas in 1998.

He has spent at least $750,000 on the straw poll, but the figure does not include priceless aid provided by trade associations and state politicians who know how to organize in Iowa.

His campaign will dispatch 100 buses across the state to haul voters to the Ames, Iowa, site. Aides estimate that 300 to 400 of the supporters will be Latino, newcomers to Iowa GOP politics.

“Many of you may have never participated” in Republican events like Saturday’s straw poll, Bush told Latino leaders here Friday. “It’s important that you participate, important that you come.”

Steve Forbes, a millionaire conservative seeking his first elective office, is expected to be competitive with Bush. He must do well to show that his money and message can convert to votes; a poor showing, even in a straw poll, could raise questions about his electability.

“We’re making no predictions on win, place or show,” Forbes said Friday after his bus rolled into the fairground blaring “Stars and Stripes Forever” from a loudspeaker.

Forbes has easily topped the $1 million mark to rent buses, throw parties for supporters, staff phone banks, mail recruitment letters and air television ads. He bought a half-hour of time Friday night for a televised town hall.

Little-known Washington activist Gary Bauer could make a name for himself with a top-tier finish.

Bauer, a former domestic policy advisor in the Reagan White House, has quietly canvassed Iowa churches and plumbed his contacts with the home-schooling community. He hopes to replicate the work of religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, who won the 1987 straw poll in a shocker that demonstrated the below-the-radar power of social conservative voters.

“I think there’s a chance for a shocker,” Bauer said Friday. “There may be a few surprises like a significant number of minorities supporting me. I think it would be a shock if I finished in the top half, considering I don’t have the money like Bush or Forbes, and I’m not a celebrity like Elizabeth Dole.”

Dole is the other big question mark. The former president of the American Red Cross is drawing huge crowds of young and professional women, who may or may not turn out Saturday.

The straw poll likely is Lamar Alexander’s last stand. The former Tennessee governor must finish third, maybe fourth, to remain viable, his supporters say.

Dan Quayle has not made Saturday do-or-die, but his campaign needs a boost.

He likes to say that, as a former vice president, nobody doubts he is ready to be president but they wonder if he could get elected.

Pat Buchanan is competing against Quayle and Bauer to carry the mantle for social conservatives. He was the top conservative candidate in 1992 and 1996, and could show Saturday that he is still a force.

Alan Keyes is a marginal threat to win the nomination, but drew several hundred staunch conservatives to the 1996 Iowa poll.

Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch is a latecomer to the race. He is trying to build his base, beginning with fellow Mormons.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona called the poll a “sham” and refused to participate.