Missile-Defense Tests ‘Scripted,’ Official Says

A top Pentagon official is casting new doubt on the progress of the government’s leading missile-defense technology, saying two recent test-flight successes haven’t established how well the controversial system could handle an actual attack.

The test flights, carried out after six consecutive failures, have been hailed by advocates as evidence that the Army’s $15.4-billion Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system will be able to protect troops on the battlefield from missile attacks.

But Philip E. Coyle III, director of operational test and evaluation for the Pentagon, said the tests were “highly scripted,” and not as challenging as the conditions that THAAD would need to handle to actually knock an incoming missile out of the sky. He said more realistic tests should be conducted before the project moves from the prototype-development stage to engineering of the final system.

In his job, Coyle serves as a sort of quality-control official for the Pentagon. Although his assessment alone is unlikely to derail or delay the program, it provides new ammunition for THAAD’s critics, who have raised similar concerns in the past.

The test flights, which took place in June and earlier this month, led Pentagon officials to accelerate the schedule of the program, an offshoot of former President Reagan’s controversial “Star Wars” initiative.

Last week, one official hailed the tests as “a watershed in the technological history of the United States,” and the Pentagon announced it would skip further prototype testing and move quickly toward final development of the project.

Coyle, however, said the two flight tests, carried out at the Army’s White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico, differed from the conditions of a real attack in key respects.

Because of the relatively small size of the White Sands test area, the Army was required to use a target missile that flew a shorter path, and was thus easier for the missile-defense system to locate.

In addition, the flight test was “shaped and scripted” so the collision would occur in a relatively small area of the sky, so that debris would not fall in areas where it might do damage, he said. And he pointed out that the THAAD missile was a prototype that would not ultimately be used in the system.

He said that the system’s performance could be examined in a more realistic setting if the next test were moved to the far larger Kwajalein Missile Range in the Marshall Islands. Such tests should be made before the Pentagon awards the contract for the final phase to Lockheed Martin Corp., Coyle urged.

At the same time, Coyle said the missile-defense program has made clear progress in recent months.

His remarks were first reported in the current issue of Defense Week, a trade publication. He replied in writing to questions submitted by the publication.

Coyle was said to be too busy for an interview on Monday, but a Pentagon spokeswoman confirmed the substance of his remarks.

Maj. Coennie Woods, a spokeswoman for the Pentagon’s Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, said the group “has no comment on his statements.”

The THAAD system consists of high-powered sophisticated radar for tracking incoming missiles and land-based mobile launchers equipped with interceptor missiles outfitted with the latest generation of sensors. These missiles must, in effect, “hit a bullet with a bullet” by successfully striking an incoming missile in midair while both are traveling at hundreds of miles an hour.

The system would most likely be used on the Korean Peninsula to shield troops against such weapons as North Korea’s No Dong missile--which has a range of 800 miles--and in the Middle East.

The current schedule calls for THAAD to be in operation in 2007, though Pentagon officials are considering ways to accelerate that.

If THAAD works, a similar technology could be used in the far more ambitious “national missile defense” program, which would aim to erect a protective shield over the entire United States.

Coyle’s views in some ways echo the comments of missile-defense system critics. They have argued that the prototype tests don’t replicate the difficult conditions of an actual attack, and have urged more challenging tests.

“He’s saying things we’ve been saying for a long time,” said Luke Warren of the Council for a Livable World, an arms-control advocacy group in Washington. If the tests “aren’t exactly rigged, they are set up not to fail.”

Though the Clinton administration has had mixed feelings about the missile-defense effort, missile defense has gained powerful political momentum in the last year amid news that the North Koreans, as well as several other countries, have been developing more capable missiles.