Feinstein Could Face Run for Her Money, Some Say

Six years ago, the pundits couldn’t stop snickering when anyone suggested that Dianne Feinstein--well-known, experienced, smart and very rich--might face a real challenge winning reelection to the U.S. Senate.

But $41 million later, most of it spent by her unknown but wealthy GOP challenger Michael Huffington, the former mayor of San Francisco survived perhaps the worst political scare of her life, winning another Senate term by one of the narrowest margins in state history.

The 66-year-old Feinstein is expected to win another six-year stint in the Senate next November. But whether it will be easy is very much up for discussion, analysts say.

Feinstein will have no major Democratic opposition in the March primary. The Republican field includes a Silicon Valley congressman, a Riverside County state senator, a San Diego County supervisor and an Orange County businessman.

By the reckoning of most political observers, the GOP front-runner is Rep. Tom Campbell, a Harvard-educated lawyer and Stanford law professor whose politically moderate views are seen as crucial to any candidate hoping to unseat the moderate Feinstein.

“I still think it is hers to lose, but I think Tom gives the Republicans a helluva lot better shot at winning than we had before” Campbell entered the race recently, said Stuart Spencer, longtime Republican consultant and a former senior advisor to Ronald Reagan. “He could make it a horse race.”

Although confident of a Feinstein victory, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said last week that Democrats are not taking anything for granted.

“This race is one of the most important races we will have in the country next year,” Daschle said in an interview. “We know that Dianne has a very strong base throughout California, and I believe she is going into this race stronger than at any time in her career . . . so she may not need a lot of help.

“But she has been an extremely important leader for California and the Democratic caucus,” Daschle said. “And the bottom line is we will do whatever it takes to help her.”

On the Republican side, no one is assuming that the race for the nomination is over. Several veteran political analysts, in fact, have cautioned that Campbell, still viewed with some suspicion by many hard-line conservatives for his pro-choice, pro-gun-control views, must concentrate on winning decisively in March.

“Before he starts attempting to run against Feinstein,” said veteran GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum, “he still has to get the Republican nomination and talk about issues important to that [party] base.”

While known in Northern California, Campbell is hardly recognized in vote-rich Southern California. Moreover, however pragmatic some in the GOP seem to be about nominating a moderate, no one denies that conservatives still hold great sway over a state Republican Party that launched the careers of both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

Indeed, the fight for the heart and soul of the conservatives is being waged by some other challengers, however little-known.

State Sen. Ray Haynes, a staunch anti-abortion, anti-gun-control legislator from Riverside, boldly predicted recently that he will win the party nomination if he can raise $1 million--a testament, perhaps, to his belief that there will be a vast and effective word-of-mouth campaign by his supporters in the religious right.

“He won’t have the money [of Campbell’s campaign],” said Hoffenblum, “but he will have the time to travel the state and the social conservatives will hunt out voters.”

Another conservative lawmaker vying for those voters will be San Diego County Supervisor Bill Horn, a decorated Vietnam veteran and an early entry in the race to unseat Feinstein.

In some ways, the race echoes other recent Senate contests in California.

Campbell ran eight years ago, losing the GOP nomination to conservative Bruce Herschenson after splitting the moderate Republican vote with the late Sonny Bono. Herschenson lost the Senate race to Democrat Barbara Boxer.

Six years ago, Feinstein was considered a shoo-in until the GOP’s Huffington spent almost $30 million of his inherited oil fortune in the costliest Senate race in U.S. history. Feinstein won that contest by less than 170,000 votes out of the almost 8 million cast for her or Huffington.

Silicon Valley millionaire Ron Unz briefly presented the possibility of devoting his considerable riches to a high-cost race. But he recently abandoned his campaign for the GOP nomination after only eight weeks to devote more time to his campaign reform initiative.

And although he had vowed in any case to limit his campaign personal spending to $600,000, the experience of 1994 has most observers convinced that this will again be a hugely expensive race.

Feinstein aides say she has more than $3 million in campaign funds on hand. And she is one of the richest members of the Senate.

While none of the Republican Senate candidates has a personal fortune, party insiders say they expect the GOP to give as much as it legally can--about $3 million--to the Senate race if polls next summer show their candidate pulling within 10 percentage points of Feinstein.

And that, based on recent elections, could easily happen.

“Senate races in California are normally decided by a relatively small margin,” said Democratic consultant Roy Behr. “A double-digit margin like the kind Barbara [Boxer] had in 1998 or Dianne got in 1992 are blowouts by California standards.”

Current polls showing Feinstein with a solid lead “are consistent with the notion that Dianne is in a very strong position,” Behr said. “But ultimately, Senate races in California tend to tighten the closer you get to election day. And this one probably will too.”