Indonesian Violence Pushes Nation to Brink

Almost every day, somewhere in this huge and deeply troubled nation that is lurching toward democracy, there is a riot or an unruly protest or a gang fight, often sparked by no more than a rumor or a street corner argument.

Over the past three months, mobs have sacked 80 police stations throughout Indonesia. Dozens of churches and mosques have been burned. Malls and marketplaces have been destroyed, and several hundred people have been killed, including 95 on the eastern island of Ambon, where Muslims and Christians clashed last month.

And Tuesday, local human rights groups in Aceh province said at least 11 people were dead and 24 still missing after a Feb. 3 independence rally in the town of Idi Cut.

The wave of violence, resulting from a lethal mix of politics, religion and growing poverty, represents a grave challenge to the government of President B. J. Habibie and, political analysts say, may get worse as Indonesia prepares for its first truly free elections in 44 years. Missing from the ballot on June 7, for the first time in more than three decades, will be the name Suharto.

President Suharto, a former general who resigned last May in the wake of student protests, kept the lid on the national caldron with a 32-year dictatorial rule that tolerated no dissent and relied heavily on the military.

His political demise left a power vacuum and unleashed forces that had simmered below the surface.

Separatist movements in East Timor, Aceh and Irian Jaya grew braver. The military, discredited by widespread human rights abuses, grew weaker. Students became emboldened. Tensions between Muslims and Christians and between ethnic Chinese and other Indonesians rose. And the class of urban poor swelled as an economic crisis pushed inflation up to 71% in 1998, saw 80 million Indonesians fall below the poverty line and turned the country into the world’s largest recipient of food aid, according to government statistics.

Suddenly there appeared the fault lines of Balkanization in Indonesia, an archipelago spanning three time zones and more than 17,000 islands populated by 212 million people who represent 300 ethnic groups. In size alone, Indonesia’s impact on the stability and economies of Southeast Asia is immense.

“Maybe there’s an element of wishful thinking on my part,” sociologist Wimar Witoelar said, “but I do not believe we are at the point of a breakdown over the law-and-order problem, and I refuse to accept that we are racists or religious fanatics. A lot of this violence didn’t just happen. It was choreographed.”

Such sentiments, widely held in Indonesia, have been reinforced by reports that 862 young toughs from Jakarta, the capital, arrived in Ambon on two ships a day before riots started there. Other strife-torn areas also have seen the unexplained appearance on the streets of agitators from outside the immediate area.

Early this month, about 200 hooligans from Jakarta were reported to have entered Medan, Indonesia’s second-largest city. The provincial governor was quoted in the Jakarta daily newspaper Kompas as saying they had come to make Medan a “second Ambon.” He urged residents to set up civilian security posts.

“There is so much substantial evidence to suggest these hoodlums are working in an organized way, we have to allow that some of these riots are more than just ordinary people letting off steam,” a Western ambassador said.

Political analysts are of two views over where blame lies. One is that the provocateurs represent hard-core Muslims who want to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state. The other is that they are financed by Suharto loyalists trying to force the cancellation of the elections in order to maintain the status quo. A military takeover in the name of restoring national security could fulfill that objective.

Abdul Rahman Wahid, Indonesia’s spiritual Muslim leader, visited Suharto last month with a message from Gen. Wiranto, the nation’s defense chief: Suharto should use his influence to discourage his loyalists from inciting violence. In return, the army pledged to safeguard his dignity and security.

“Suharto was very glad to hear my request. It gave his morale a boost to know someone still considered his influence,” the cleric said.

The 200 political parties that have sprung up since Suharto was replaced by Habibie, his vice president, are expected to be whittled down to about 20 by June.

The government has banned street rallies during the three-week period leading up to the elections to lessen the chance of violence, and university rectors are recruiting 450,000 students to monitor the polling.

Although Habibie is so tainted by his past association with Suharto that he has no base of power and little public support, he has overseen a remarkable democratization of Indonesia and is firmly committed, Asian and Western diplomats believe, to holding fair and free elections.

He helped craft a new election law that reduces the military’s non-elected seats in parliament to 38 from 75. Radical students complained that the law does not go far enough, and they continue to call for the end of all military political involvement and Habibie’s resignation.

“The election process is not everything we had hoped for, but it’s better than having no election at all,” said Subagio Anam, senior advisor to Megawati Sukarnoputri, one of Habibie’s presidential challengers. “The next election will be better, and the one after that better still. This is a process.”