New York’s in a Sen. Clinton State of Mind

As she ponders an expensive run for U.S. senator from New York, Hillary Rodham Clinton may ultimately lack the stomach or desire to enter the electoral arena. But she will never lack for advice--especially from New Yorkers, who give it free of charge.

Indeed, the Empire State is salivating over the prospect of a Clinton clash in 2000 with Gotham Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who is also considering the race. These days, the first lady is awash in suggestions from friends, foes, media pundits, even real estate agents and fashion consultants:

She should run a positive campaign and ignore the combative Giuliani, some advise; she should ditch the pink pantsuits and wear New York black (“You’re not a Teletubby,” wrote a Daily News columnist); she should drive a Jeep through upstate farm towns and drink beer with the boys; she should rent a large apartment on the Upper Eastside or Westside of Manhattan, and pick a workout gym carefully, depending on whom she wants to impress.

Most of the advice comes from political consultants, who in a series of interviews could barely contain themselves at the thought of such a race.

“This would be a clash of two titans, the most spectacular and memorable contest of our time,” said GOP political consultant Frank Luntz, predicting a razor-thin outcome. “And she [Hillary] would be at the center of it, through the sheer force of her personality.”

The intensity of speculation boiled over this week, when the first lady said she would give the race a close look, and advisors began sounding out a who’s who of New York labor and political leaders. The belief that she might actually run escalated when Mrs. Clinton met at the White House on Friday with longtime Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, whose decision to retire from the Senate in 2000 creates an opening.

Her interest in the race is understandably buoyed by recent public opinion surveys, which show the first lady beating Giuliani in all areas except the suburbs and trouncing him among female voters. According to a Marist Poll released last week, she leads the mayor 49%-38%, with more than 20% of Republicans indicating they would back her over Giuliani, who has won acclaim for his success in cutting New York’s crime rate.

“I’d love to see her run,” said Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who helped manage President Clinton’s New York reelection campaign in 1996. “And that’s because I think she wins going away. She runs as a candidate who will protect Social Security and reform education, and the first time Giuliani comes after her for any personal stuff, it blows up in his face. End of game. End of story.”

Residency Issue Could Pose Problems

But is it that simple? There is, after all, the little matter of residency. Although federal law requires only that a candidate “reside” in a state to run for the Senate, Hillary Clinton--hailing from Illinois, Arkansas and Washington--isn’t exactly a home girl. The carpetbagger issue could hurt, even though it didn’t stop Robert F. Kennedy and James Buckley from renting apartments here before winning Senate campaigns in 1964 and 1970, respectively. Many believe the same would be true of the first lady.

“She’s not from anywhere. She’s from TV and that’s fine,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “New Yorkers respond to celebrity; this is friendly terrain for her.”

Others suggest that the first lady will need to bone up on local issues in a hurry to be a credible candidate. Does she know the difference between White Plains and the White House?

“It’s hard to imagine the regal first lady showing up in Utica, at the Siranac Brewery upstate, and going around with those little yellow hard hats on,” said MSNBC’s John Gibson, laughing at the thought.

The New York media was rough on Hillary Clinton in 1992, when her husband ran in the Democratic primary, and it could have a field day with her again. Veteran consultant Patrick Caddell said the persistent drumbeat for her to enter the Senate race “is typical of New York politics . . . let’s suck somebody in and then beat the hell out of them.”

No Shortage of Advice for Candidates

For now, there are more questions than answers for the first lady, who said she will make a decision later this year. Meanwhile, experts are also showering Giuliani with political advice: Run a positive campaign and never attack her, they tell the hot-tempered mayor; stress that you’re a real New Yorker and she’s not; pose as often as you can with a knish in your hand and a Yankees cap on your head.

“If I was advising Rudy, the theme of the campaign would be ‘Do You Remember?’ reminding people how bad New York was before he became mayor and how much it has improved since then,” said Luntz, who aided in Giuliani’s 1997 reelection campaign. New York voters have “had it up to here with negative campaigns, so Rudy would have to run a truly upbeat race, which is something people here aren’t used to,” added Mike Dawidziak, a Long Island-based political consultant who managed New York campaigns in 1988 and 1992 for former President Bush.

So far, the mayor is marching to his own drummer. He took his first swipe at the first lady on a TV talk show airing today, criticizing her support for a Palestinian homeland.

Thrilled, the New York Post bannered the attack on its front page under the headline “The First Shot.”

Amid the hoopla, it’s easy to forget that the New York race in 2000 has no official candidates.

Political and personal advice continues to pour in for two heavyweights who have been thrust into the arena like 800-pound gorillas--and who may yet pass on the contest.

“Hillary should never underestimate the power of upstate voters,” said former Clinton confidant Dick Morris.

“They’re the key; they hate New York City and they think that, secretly, Giuliani hates it too.”

Switching hats, GOP consultant Dawidziak advised the first lady to forget the issues, ignore demographics and simply be herself.

“It’s all about her personality, which is larger than life, here or anywhere,” he said. “She could run for the Senate, she could sit on bank boards, she could go Hollywood and have Meryl Streep play her in the movies.”

Or she could run somewhere else.

Envious of New York, other states want a piece of the first lady as well. “Yo, Hillary, why not Pennsylvania?” urged a Philadelphia Daily News Editorial. “Arkansas might be more realistic,” said Morris. Try Illinois, suggested Chicago Tribune columnist Mary Schmich, adding:

“New York is too trendy for a down-home girl like you, hon. All those bone-thin women in black surviving on mesclun salad. Ugh! All of us Illinois gals know that bigger is better and pizza is best.”

Times staff writer Elizabeth Shogren contributed to this story.