Nuclear Pact Helps Defuse Tensions in South Asia

LAHORE, Pakistan — The leaders of the world’s two newest nuclear-armed nations agreed Sunday to a series of measures designed to cut the risk of war between the historical rivals.

Prime Ministers Atal Behari Vajpayee of India and Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan capped a cordial weekend summit here, 20 miles from their border, by promising to warn each other of missile tests, swap information on nuclear strategy and refrain from testing any more nuclear weapons.

The two leaders also agreed to take a number of other steps meant to strengthen their troubled relationship--which exploded into an international crisis last spring when both India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons.

Although the two-day meeting brought gushing toasts and effusive remarks, Sharif and Vajpayee made little progress on the central issue that divides their countries--the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir. They promised to try again but conceded Sunday that they have little idea where to begin.

Still, Sunday’s agreements on military matters represented an important first step for the two countries toward managing--if not ending--their conflict. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since they attained independence in 1947, and their newly acquired atomic weapons mean that a future war could escalate into a nuclear exchange.

The measures agreed to Sunday mirrored those that the U.S. and other Western nations have been pushing India and Pakistan to adopt since they first set off underground nuclear explosions in May.

Vajpayee and Sharif emerged from their talks vowing that India and Pakistan have opened an era of friendly relations and that they are ready to ease a rivalry that has helped make their two countries among the poorest in the world.

“Neither Pakistan nor India has gained anything from their conflicts and tensions of the past 50 years,” Sharif said with Vajpayee seated beside him. “We must bring peace to South Asia. We must bring prosperity to our people. We owe this to ourselves and to future generations.”

“We will not allow a war,” Vajpayee said repeatedly during a speech Sunday.

Most of the measures adopted Sunday are aimed at lending some predictability to a dangerous and undefined nuclear standoff. Neither country has yet developed rigorous safeguards for the launching of its nuclear weapons, nor have the two together developed sufficient procedures to defuse tensions in a time of crisis. In a series of recent meetings, U.S. officials have been urging them to adopt the sort of procedures that the United States and the Soviet Union shared during the Cold War--and which took them decades to work out.

U.S. leaders are especially concerned because the United States and Soviet Union did not have an active, violent territorial dispute, while India and Pakistan routinely shell each other in Kashmir. In addition, the proximity of India and Pakistan would reduce the flight times of nuclear-armed missiles and airplanes, and hence increases the likelihood of a miscalculation.

In addition to agreeing to provide advance notice of missile tests, Vajpayee and Sharif pledged to notify each other in the event of an accidental missile launch--or of any other incident that might raise the risk of war.

In agreeing to refrain from testing any more nuclear weapons, India and Pakistan made official what they have been practicing since May. Though each country reserved the right to resume testing if its “supreme interests” are jeopardized, the moratorium agreed to Sunday seemed to increase the likelihood that India and Pakistan will soon join more than 145 other nations in signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Vajpayee and Sharif also agreed to review the “hotlines” between their two countries and to upgrade them if necessary. And the two leaders promised to begin negotiating a pact that would decrease the chances of provocative incidents in the air and on the sea, and to search for other means that could lessen the possibility of armed conflict.

Some Pakistanis said the measures agreed to Sunday demonstrated a growing sense on each side of the awesome destructive power of their new arsenals and of the responsibilities that come with them.

“The euphoria is being substituted by a sense of realism,” said Munir Khan, former chairman of Pakistan’s Atomic Energy Commission. “Both governments realize that they need to have reliable command-and-control systems for these weapons. It took the great powers a long time. India and Pakistan have to go through the same thing.”

The one notable failure in the talks was Kashmir, the Himalayan region that straddles India and Pakistan and is claimed in its entirety by both countries. India and Pakistan fight regular artillery duels along the 450-mile disputed border, and India has long accused Pakistan of supporting an armed insurgency inside Indian Kashmir. Though each side agreed Sunday to refrain from meddling in the internal affairs of the other--and to desist from supporting terrorism--neither Vajpayee nor Sharif gave any indication that he intends to alter his country’s policy on Kashmir.

“It is very difficult for me to say what solution will emerge from Jammu and Kashmir,” Vajpayee said afterward, using the Indian name for the region.

But Vajpayee and Sharif agreed to put aside Kashmir and move on to other issues. That has rarely happened in the past, largely because the Kashmiri cause has strong supporters in each country. Before the weekend summit, both prime ministers were warned by domestic opponents against backing down on Kashmir. The shift toward common ground is likely to anger Kashmir’s proponents in both countries.

“They are skirting the Kashmir issue,” said Muzaffar Shah, a Pakistani physician who was protesting Vajpayee’s visit. “There can be no normalization of relations until the Kashmir issue is resolved.”

In the streets, thousands of Pakistanis demonstrated against the Indian leader’s visit. At least one police officer was killed, and hundreds of people were arrested.

But even with the demonstrations, the protesters seemed outnumbered by well-wishers this weekend. Euphoria and self-congratulation pervaded Lahore: One newspaper commentator compared Vajpayee’s visit to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, and both Vajpayee and Sharif described the visit as “historic” before anything substantive was accomplished.

The important thing, many Indians and Pakistanis said Sunday, was that the two rivals were finally talking.

“The foundation has been laid,” former Pakistani Prime Minister Miraj Khalid said.