Eagle-Eyed View of U.S. Concerns in Asia

It may well be that below the level of secretary of State or Defense the most critical U.S. position for Asia sits not in a stuffy office in Washington but on a windswept hilltop command in Honolulu. There the commander in chief of all U.S. forces in the Pacific has the job of worrying about our security alliances with Japan and South Korea--and about the military capabilities of China and North Korea. For three-plus years this assignment has belonged to Adm. Joseph Prueher. Just before he handed in his Navy retirement papers, and handed over this prestigious command to Adm. Dennis Blair last weekend, Prueher offered us some candid views about Asia.

His chief concern remains the tensions in the South China Sea, where China butts egos with its neighbors over disputed islands. “We are trying to create a busy presence in the South China Sea,” he says. “We’re increasing our military profile, we’re letting us be seen a little bit more.” Prueher sees the U.S. role as keeping would-be combatants separated, thus keeping them from getting too edgy.

His next worry is unpredictable North Korea: “The North Korean ability to sustain a conflict is not strong. But their ability to inflict pain quickly, over a short period, is great.” The admiral is scarcely surprised by China’s inability to control North Korea, which last summer unexpectedly launched a test missile over Japan’s airspace.

Prueher knows that China, with its shaky economy, growing unemployment and burgeoning military might, has its own problems. The admiral, more than most U.S. officials, offers a compelling, nuanced perspective on Beijing that’s less condemnatory than carefully comprehending: “We must respect the true national interests of others, even when they are not our own. With China, we are in for a little more difficult time, more difficult than over the past few years.” Prueher views China’s latest crackdowns on dissidents as symptoms of weakness rather than strength: “Their economic problems are creating a lot of stress. When their leaders lose a bit of stability, or control over an issue, they worry a lot, and it bleeds over to the human rights issue, where we don’t see eye to eye. Still, we must respect China’s legitimate interests.”

One of those interests is Taiwan, which neither China nor America recognizes as an independent nation but that acts like one. Thus the U.S. proposal, supported by Japan, to erect antimissile systems in the region to ward off rogue attacks by the likes of North Korea, has the Chinese howling about Taiwan possibly getting its hands on systems that could neutralize Beijing’s missile advantage. Sighs Prueher, who believes rumors of a huge Chinese missile buildup are overblown: “I can look the Chinese right in the eye when I say it’s not designed to hurt them.” If Prueher can convince the Chinese of that, the president should make him ambassador to China, as, in fact, goes a current Washington rumor.

As for Japan, Prueher is concerned that trade protectionism could poison U.S-Japan relations and thus weaken regional security ties. “We must continue to make sure that we here in Pearl [Harbor] and the people in Tokyo and in Washington understand that the relationship with Japan is the absolute cornerstone of security in Asia,” says Prueher. “With all the conversation about China, Kosovo, the Middle East, and so on, we must tend the Japanese garden better. This is the one relationship that mustn’t go wrong.” Economics and trade deficits, he agrees, are important, but they are not everything.

Also on his worry list is the state of America’s military. “There has been an erosion of our readiness in Asia,” says Prueher. “Sure, our forward deployment forces are as ready as they can be. But I am concerned about the forces under that. We have problems. It’s the rust under the paint that hasn’t broken through yet, but when it does, you know you have a big problem.”

Prueher is very much the modern military man. He prefers the power of patient diplomacy to military intervention. “But,” he adds, “the notion that we can bring our forces out of Asia has been dispelled. Even if we got some kind of de-tensioning on the Korean peninsula or in Asia generally, there’d still be a need for U.S. forces.” It’s a cliche as old as armies, but undoubtedly the best way to keep the peace is to be ready for war.

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Times contributing editor Tom Plate’s column runs Tuesdays. He teaches at UCLA. E-mail: tplate@ucla.edu.