Will Either Side Blink?

We should know soon whether David Stern’s threat was real, whether Michael Jordan will play again and whether it was worth it to push the NBA to the brink of calamity.

With Thursday the deadline for reaching a new collective bargaining agreement, a look at a few of the most pressing questions in what will be one of the most pivotal weeks in NBA history.

Question: They wouldn’t cancel the rest of the season, would they?

Answer: Yes, they would. The threat of losing the entire 1998-99 season is real, with Stern saying many owners are pushing him to pull the plug and teach everyone a lesson about how seriously imperiled the league’s financial health is.

Q: What is the biggest factor in the way of a compromise?

A: The single biggest stumbling block appears to be the union’s insistence upon receiving 57% of the revenues in the final year of a six-year agreement.

Q: Why doesn’t the union drop to 56%?

A: Because the players received 57% last season, and union director Billy Hunter has said that even though the players are willing to take less in the fourth and fifth years, they shouldn’t come out of the sixth year receiving a smaller percentage than they had when they negotiated the deal.

Q: What happens if they settle?

A: First, they’d have to put the agreement on paper and have it ratified--a process that could take about a week. After that, training camps would open, 200 free agents would be on the market, trades could take place and everyone would be placed into an unprecedented scramble before the season started in early February.

Q: What happens if they don’t settle?

A: Everything becomes chaotic. Franchises that are worth an average of $200 million lose value, $1 billion in player salaries goes unpaid, someone tries to start a new league, players try to make money overseas, the union decertifies, the whole mess is fought in court and the fans continue to learn to live without the NBA.

Q: What’s wrong with them?

A: The owners and the commissioner have been waiting several years to regain control of their industry. Kevin Garnett signed for $126 million in 1997, and Allen Iverson might have topped that in 1998. They believe this fight had to be fought at some point to stop the lunacy. The players, meanwhile, know they are the product everyone pays to see and do not want to give back gains they have made over the years.

Q: And finally, what about Jordan?

A: Only Michael knows, and it’ll take a settlement to get him to announce his plans.