If Y2K’s in Your Past, Then Business Is in Order
In grade school, John Conley probably had his science project done while the rest of the class was still at recess.
Years ago, Conley, the information systems manager for PPI Wholesale Office Supplies in Sun Valley, began testing that firm’s proprietary software to make certain the company would not feel the bite of the millennium bug, the dreaded cyber-stalker that may cause computers hither and yon to go into brain lock next New Year’s Eve.
“We took care of all of our programs two years ago,” said Conley, a computer programmer who added that he began building so-called Y2K compliance into his programs more than a decade ago. “We didn’t want to wait until the last minute.”
It would be nice to think that Conley and his 70-employee company are symbolic of most of the San Fernando Valley business community: alert, aware, prepared, watching the glue dry on our papier-mache models of the solar system.
But speaking for those of us just stumbling back into the classroom, still not quite clear on the assignment, my guess is: Probably not.
For the most part, until recently, the rest of the world greeted the whole Year 2000 discussion with the kind of collective “Huh??!!” that accompanies attempts to teach quantum physics to third-graders.
For years, manufacturers have been producing and we’ve been installing software and hardware that could potentially be a problem when date-sensitive devices reach the end of the 1900s.
Now, with just under 12 months to go before we’re all tested on our millennium readiness, companies around the Valley and the globe are scrambling to avoid what some predict could be an entrepreneurial Armageddon.
Think of it as the ultimate class project.
How prepared for Y2K are Valley businesses?
As a group, small and medium-size firms nationwide have been less aggressive about dealing with the problem than larger companies. And the Valley business base is made up primarily of small businesses--nearly 60%, according to the Census Bureau.
Experts say that true to form, many Valley businesses are just now seeking information about the Y2K problem, which--depending on the scenario you buy into--could either be the End of Civilization As We Know It, or the Big Yawn.
But a number of things work in our favor: For one, many small and medium-size companies use off-the-shelf software for their main business operations. Such software is easily upgradeable, experts say, and most software companies have beefed up their Web sites to provide additional information and remedies.
For another, a growing number of the small businesses in the Valley are high-tech start-ups, which puts them in the portion of the class most likely to have at least addressed the problem.
Also, as logic would dictate, the size of the Y2K challenge grows in direct proportion to the size of the firm. But that last factor has convinced some small businesses that this will only be a test for the big kids.
“We are finding that, in the San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys, primarily small and medium-sized companies tend not to be addressing the Y2K problem with the vigor that the larger companies are,” said Richard King, dean of the school of business and management at Woodbury University in Burbank. A number of firms have called the school looking for guidance, he said.
“They’re looking for the large companies to go in solve the problem, and they’ll fall in behind.”
That brings us to Y2K lesson No. 1:
There is no Big Daddy.
“People should be prepared and ask questions and not assume that ‘they’ will take care of things,” said Susan Garland Forte, vice president of the Technolink Assn., a clearing house and trade association for high-tech start-ups. “Who is ‘they?’ ”
Lesson No. 2:
Don’t assume that the bell only tolls for Bill Gates.
“Overall,” said Forte, “it will be the small businesses that will be most affected if they’re not prepared.”
Lesson No. 3:
Don’t assume that the problem is isolated on your desktop.
Even though Conley has given his firm’s in-house software the once-over, he’s now fretting about such low-tech features as fax machines and voice mail.
“The big problem is with our hardware and software vendors,” said Conley, who estimates that his company will spend hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars upgrading computers to guarantee a smooth slide into the next century.
“We’re having to pay for their programmers’ inability to do their job correctly. . . . It’s not a lot of money, but it’s a nuisance,” Conley added. “We’d much rather buy six or seven brand new PCs for the office than fix stuff that shouldn’t be broken.”
Most business experts we questioned anticipate some glitches come 2000, but all eschewed the kind of doomsday prophecies heard last year, in which airplanes were fated to fall from the sky like so many aluminum meteorites.
“The media have sort of hyped up the issue,” King said. “In my opinion, there will not be a major disaster. The world’s not going to fall apart on Jan. 1.”
But there will be challenges that are eminently survivable for those who are prepared. In that vein, here, from our impromptu panel of experts, are some tips to use as a Year 2000 study guide. And remember, there will be a test:
* Contact your vendors now, particularly suppliers overseas. King said there is an “incredible” amount of communication going on between technophiles here and abroad, which he feels lessens the possibility of global glitches. But in general, experts say much of world, including parts of Southeast Asia, lag at least 12 months behind the United States in Y2K preparedness.
Bob Meyler, outgoing chairman of the United Chambers of Commerce of the San Fernando Valley, thinks most small businesses have done “something” about Y2K, even if it’s just to check into software upgrades. But he thinks very few have taken the extra step of contacting suppliers.
* Keep accurate financial records, on paper. Even though banking institutions are among the best prepared, there can be problems with everything from account balances to interest rates.
* Contact the manufacturer of devices from dry-cleaning machines to the phone system. Have them send you, in writing, a detailed list of potential problems and proposed remedies. If they feel there will be no problem, ask for certification.
* Talk to your attorney about any potential liability.
“There are a lot of litigation issues that are going to take place,” said Forte, giving this example: “Our vendors told us they would ship. Well, they didn’t and I had to lay people off. I’m going to sue someone.”
* To the extent that software upgrades are needed, hire a programmer you can trust. Conley sees the current environment as the “perfect opportunity” for potential fraud as frightened business owners sign up for unneeded repairs.
* If you’re concerned about your suppliers’ ability to deliver the goods in 2000, build up extra inventory to carry you through any calendar-induced breaks in your supply line.
“We’re going to have a significant inventory buildup, prior to 2000, that will provide a transitional period to handle” any problems, King said.
* Don’t kick yourself too hard if you’re just now starting to study. For one thing, there’s still time. And it puts you in the company of all of the rest of us who are still trying to figure out what chapter we were supposed to read last week.
Making Contact:
The Small Business Administration is planning to offer seminars in 1999 on Y2K preparedness. Meanwhile, information is available on the SBA Web site at https://www.sba.gov or by calling John Tumpak at the SBA Valley office at (818) 552-3203.
