Ace Popcorn Muncher, Meet No. 1 Numbers Cruncher
A year like ’99 has too much going on to leave our Sneaks peak Whatever to one person, so we went to two from two distinct perspectives--super-fan Harry Knowles, who puts every script tip, casting rumor, production news and test screening report he can get ahold of on his comprehensive Ain’t-It-Cool-News.com Web site, and super-analyst Paul Dergarabedian, who crunches box-office and demographic data as president of the authoritative industry assessor Exhibitor Relations Inc.
THE FORCE: “You should probably start lining up a week before [the new “Star Wars” opens]. I’ll be interested to see how MovieFone will handle it. Not sure if they’ll put seats on sale early.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
“People are planning to camp out a month ahead. I hate the phone services where you can buy tickets early. I love lines. It’s the event--lining up and being with people who also love movies.”
--Harry Knowles
NOTHING BUT STAR WARS: “We may want to sleep in the office the week that ‘Star Wars’ comes out to wait for the grosses to come in. We’re anticipating all-time records--single biggest day, highest per-screen average, biggest three-day weekend. We watch the records, and all of those are going to fall.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
“I’m probably going to get in line five to seven days early and take my computer. I’m going to get a cellular modem so I can update the site from line. By the time I enter the theater, I should be some grade of protoplasm.”
--Harry Knowles
ANYTHING BUT STAR WARS: “When I look at the release schedule, it’s pretty empty around when ‘Star Wars’ comes out, May 21. ‘Wild Wild West’ is in July, Universal does have ‘The Mummy’ in May. ‘Big Daddy,’ an Adam Sandler picture, is June 25. Things start to open up in late June, but people are staying away from the ‘Star Wars’ date.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
“Beyond ‘Star Wars,’ I’m really looking forward to ‘Green Mile’ starring Tom Hanks. And I’m curious as hell to see ‘Eyes Wide Shut’--can’t wait to see if Warners can pull themselves out of the rut they’ve been in.”--Harry Knowles
QUESTION MARKS: “Maybe ‘Eyes Wide Shut,’ the Tom Cruise-Nicole Kidman film for Stanley Kubrick at Warner Bros. I don’t think it will be particularly aimed at a Tom Cruise audience. But just having Tom Cruise is a pretty good insurance policy. But when they put Arnold Schwarzenegger in ‘Junior’ and made him pregnant, his fans didn’t go with that.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
“Can’t imagine Will Smith and Kevin Kline pulling off ‘Wild Wild West.’ That’s casting weirdness I don’t understand. I originally heard that George Clooney and Kevin Spacey were considered, and that would be the right tone. But [director] Barry Sonnenfeld is nothing if not a showman, and I’m eager to see if they can turn my dread into joy. I watched a lot of ‘Wild Wild West’ in my time.”
--Harry Knowles
STAR ASCENDING: “Depending on how ‘The Mummy’ plays, Brendan Fraser could cross out from just being a comedian. ‘Gods and Monsters’ really opens nationally now, and then there’s this adventure with ‘The Mummy’ and then it’s ‘Dudley Do-Right’--and I’ve heard good things about that. So if I were placing money on an actor’s chances, I’d bet on him.”
--Harry Knowles
TIME FOR A CHANGE: “I hear Nic Cage is wanting to do a genre-breaking project, something like how with ‘The Searchers’ John Wayne and John Ford reinvented that genre. He’s reading a lot of scripts--the Man With No Name sort of things. I hope he goes that route. He needs to get out of the run [of action films] he’s on now.”
--Harry Knowles
ART ATTACK: “Clients of ours and just regular people in smaller markets have been calling us saying, ‘We want “Shakespeare in Love” when it first comes out. Why do we have to wait?’ Conventional wisdom is that smaller towns don’t go for those art-house films, but that might be changing. ‘Waking Ned Devine,’ ‘The Full Monty,’ even ‘The Crying Game’ made it more acceptable.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLE: “The older audience hasn’t been served. It was proven with ‘Titanic’ that you can have a film that appeals to all ages and will get older people out of their armchairs. They stay home Saturday and watch CBS. But my parents went to see ‘Titanic.’ But most films aren’t tailored to older audiences.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
“An underserved audience? Maybe people who like intelligent filmmaking? I don’t see Hollywood bringing out a lot of intelligent films. Last I heard they were rewriting the ’13 Days’ script, which I felt was brilliant as it was, but apparently they felt the need to rewrite it.”
--Harry Knowles
THE FUTURE: “Might see more of a value-added situation in regards to tickets. Maybe they’ll do dinner theater some day--pay 20 bucks and get dinner as well as a movie. Already seeing them trying to make it more upscale with cappuccino and bagels and stadium seating. There’s excitement not just about the movies, but the theaters themselves.”
--Paul Dergarabedian
“If anything, the studios will keep aiming at the lowest common denominator. Look for a whole lot of Adam Sandler movies. In a million years I would never cry for another Adam Sandler movie, but they seem to make money.”
--Harry Knowles