Albright Could Assist in Saving Indonesia From Tragedy

I wonder whether Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is fully aware that a great tragedy may be unfolding in Indonesia. The potential for evil involves not just tiny East Timor--the violence-racked province forcibly annexed by Jakarta decades ago--but the entire country. Indonesia stands at the crossroads between a sunny democratic future and its dark, authoritarian past. Even the democratic prospects of the rest of Southeast Asia may hang in the balance. The United States cannot afford to play the role of innocent bystander as nascent Indonesian democracy is murdered. And because of the personalities and issues involved, Albright must become more personally involved before it is too late.

Recall that last month Indonesia held a breakthrough free election. In a process well-monitored by international observers, electors from all over the sprawling nation of more than a thousand islands were selected to form a constituent assembly that is to pick a new government in November. What a moment for citizens of this star-crossed country, with its gigantic population of 210 million--less only than China, India and the United States. And, despite the kaleidescope of more than 100 participating political parties, 160 million registered voters and 300,000 polling places, the people did indeed settle on a favorite: Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of the late Gen. Sukarno and leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party in Struggle. Amazingly, that party reeled in approximately one third of the overall vote. It was clearly a Megawati magic moment, and an unmistakable showing to the exits for incumbent President B.J. Habibie, General Suharto’s chosen successor and the head of the long-dominant Golkar Party.

But does the United States really believe the once-all-powerful Golkar network will bow out gracefully? Isn’t it more probable that Habibie’s people will dip into Golkar’s barrels of cash, many parked in Europe, and corrupt the next part of the process in the fall, denying Megawati her rightful place at the head of the new government? That outcome would be a disaster for Indonesia and the region. Indonesia’s thoughtful ambassador to the United States, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, a Berkeley-educated economist, was in Los Angeles Friday at a timely Asia Society California session. Speaking with careful precision, the diplomat-economist told us: “Total openness of the electoral college is a must. Even the elite know that there could be trouble in the streets if the process is seen to be unfair.”

The first Indonesian woman to have a shot at being president needs America’s interest and Albright’s commitment to help nurture Indonesian democracy. Megawati could also use the financial and moral support of every Western women’s organization concerned with political fairness and the political rights of women. Every signal from the U.S. is crucial but, right now, there really aren’t many. U.S. ambivalence, tacit or otherwise, will open the door to the presidency for almost everyone except Megawati.

There are theocratic and exclusionary forces in Indonesia that could throw the society into reverse. A desperate Habibie is cynically exploiting these elements. He has, behind the scenes, been urging word to be put about that no woman should head an Islamic state, ever. But here Habibie is making a serious error: Even if his alliance with the devil is successful and Megawati is stopped, in the end he will only have succeeded in inflaming those very Islamic forces (which his predecessors Suharto and Sukarno wisely kept bottled up) that will incinerate him and torch every last shred of Indonesian democracy. As an internationally known diplomat well-versed in Indonesian ways told me: “These forces have been sleeping for a long time. Let them stay asleep.”

Albright is sleepwalking if she believes everything is going to be all right in Indonesia. In fact, U.S. indifference will ensure the opposite. Advises a Southeast Asian diplomat: “Do not underestimate U.S. clout. It is enormous right now.” I am convinced that if America’s first woman secretary of state were truly up to speed about the ominous obstacles in front of Megawati--who could and should be Indonesia’s first woman president--there is no way Albright could or would turn the other way. By focusing her attention on Indonesia, quickly and completely, she could make the differece. Indeed, it may be that only someone of her stature can prevent this emerging political tragedy from upending the achievement of the Indonesian people in having pulled off the first half of an unprecedented democratic election.

It would be thoroughly ironic if Megawati’s enemies were to derail democracy on the basis of a vile gender argument while the U.S., with Albright as its chief foreign policy official, looked the other way.