Trade Remains Risky Business for O.C. Shops

A formal trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam won’t necessarily lead to an immediate boom for Orange County’s Vietnamese American entrepreneurs, because doing business with their homeland remains a controversial undertaking in this community of immigrants.

Many of the county’s 200,000-plus Vietnamese Americans served in the South Vietnamese military or were political prisoners. Some fled Vietnam in rickety boats to escape from Communist tyranny and oppression.

“Even though many people are doing [business with Vietnam], they cannot do it openly,” said Giao Bui of the Vietnamese-American Chamber of Commerce. “It’s still very, very difficult.”

Indeed, it is not hard to find food and other products imported from Vietnam in stores throughout Westminster’s Little Saigon. But those who advocate trade with Vietnam have been labeled traitors. Westminster physician Co Pham, a former medic in the South Vietnamese Army, became a lightning rod for protest when in October 1994 he led a 27-member trade delegation to Vietnam.

That kind of recrimination makes many Vietnamese American business owners think twice about taking a vocal stance in favor of normalizing trade relations with their homeland.

“I think Vietnamese businesspeople are still in the ‘wait-and-see mode,’ ” said Bui. “The bureaucracy in Vietnam is difficult to get through. Until full trade relations are in effect, the majority are going to wait.”

With a population of 77 million, Vietnam offers a large market of consumers for U.S. companies, bigger than longtime Western trading partners such as France and Canada. However, Vietnam is a very poor country, with an annual per capita income of about $200.

Despite the controversy surrounding political and economic ties between the two nations, U.S.-Vietnam trade has steadily increased in recent years. In 1996, the U.S. imported $332 million in goods and services from Vietnam, up nearly 67% from 1995. Vietnam bought nearly twice as much from the U.S., importing $616 million, a 144% jump over 1995.

Today, U.S. imports from Vietnam total an estimated $470 million, according to the World Bank. That figure would likely nearly double in the first year of the new trade accord.

About one-third of Vietnam’s gross domestic products comes from mining, construction and utilities. Agriculture, forestry and fishing generate more than one-quarter, and “commerce” is responsible for 16%.

Trade between the United States and Vietnam will increase exponentially with normalization, said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange.

“Vietnam will need lots of agricultural products, which will benefit California,” he said. “And when it comes to high-tech capital goods such as computers, electronic and telecommunications equipment, Orange County could serve as a potential exporter of those goods, which should benefit us in the long-run.”

But having a formal trade agreement in place doesn’t guarantee that business will increase overnight.

“There won’t be a tsunami effect,” said Richard Drobnick, director of USC’s Center for International Business. “Clearly, it will accelerate the process of normalization of relations between U.S. and Vietnam. California firms will certainly be more involved.

“But this will be slow and steady growth,” he said. “The fact is that the Vietnamese consumers are poor so they won’t be buying California wines or Barbie dolls.”

Jay De Long, director of strategic initiatives for the Orange County Business Council, said the agreement would translate into only a blip in Orange County’s economy. “I think it’s a good thing for the ethnic communities here, but I don’t think it will have much of an impact on the major manufacturers or employers in the county,” he said.

The Vietnamese-American Chamber has been at the forefront in advocating normalization of relations over the years, but it remains an uphill battle.

“Trade will lead to democratization and improve conditions in Vietnam in time, just as trade has helped in China and in former Communist countries such as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic,” said Dr. Pham, president of the Vietnamese Chamber of Commerce.

Still, anti-Communist sentiment runs deep, and many remain unconvinced that normalized trade relations will benefit both sides.

“A sad day for humanity,” said a disappointed Diem Do, an anti-Communist activist who has lobbied aggressively against trade privileges.

The United States should formalize trade with Vietnam only if the Southeast Asian country significantly improves its record on human rights, Do said. By normalizing trade relations, America will lose its most effective bargaining chip in trying to coax Vietnam toward democracy, he said.

“Our government isn’t willing to pressure for real change in Vietnam,” Do said. “The Clinton administration is betraying democratic values and is succumbing to the pressure of big business.”