Double Trouble From Those Two-Digit Dates
The source of all these worries is the long-standing computer use of two digits to represent years. The system worked fine as long as all the dates were in the same century, but in 2000 the dates will become ambiguous to some computers.
For example, the digits “00” could stand for either “1900” or “2000,” resulting in a host of possible malfunctions and miscalculations.
The use of two-digit dates harks back to the earliest days of large-scale computing as a way of conserving memory and disk space, which were precious commodities in the 1960s and 1970s but now are common as dirt.
The savings for each data entry was minuscule, but when multiplied by thousands or millions of entries, the aggregate could become substantial. In this respect, the decision to abbreviate dates was not an error at all, but just good common sense, at least from a human perspective.
Many programmers knew there would be problems with this system, but few imagined their programs and chips would survive to 2000. What they missed was the stubbornness with which complex technology clings to life. As these mainframe programs grew larger and more capable, they became almost too complex to be easily or cheaply replaced.
Two-digit dates are now found in countless programs for mainframes and personal computers, as well as inside the programming of many microprocessors used to control such “smart” devices as automated factory machines and power plant equipment.
The global cost estimates for the Year 2000 problem cover an outlandish range, from about $300 billion to as much as $2 trillion if such factors as litigation, risk management and contingency planning are thrown into the equation.
But even the lowest estimates put Y2K in the same league as some of the greatest events and disasters of our time--the Vietnam War (U.S. cost, $755 billion from 1959 to 1975), Hurricane Andrew in 1992 ($40 billion) and the Korean War (U.S. cost, $352.2 billion from 1950 to 1953), to name a few. The Persian Gulf War comes in at a paltry $63 billion. World War II dwarfs them all at $4.1 trillion, according to figures from the Washington-based Center for Defense Information. All cost estimates are adjusted for inflation.
