A Big Step for Indonesia

Monday’s free, fair and largely peaceful parliamentary elections, which appear to have unseated the ruling Golkar Party of former President Suharto, took Indonesia a big step toward democracy. But the election, in which 48 political parties were allowed to participate, is just the beginning of a potentially divisive process of selecting the country’s constitutionally powerful president. And only when that choice is made can the real job of building a democratic Indonesia begin.

The voting was preceded by little or no public debate on issues but marked an expression of popular anger at Suharto’s corrupt regime. The grievances are many. Until his forced resignation in May 1998, Suharto ruled the country with the iron fist of a dictator, drawing on the military and security forces for support. His economic policy, although bringing some prosperity to most of the 205 million Indonesians, was based on the corrupt system of crony capitalism, enriching him, his family and those toeing his line.

The first challenge the new leaders will face is restoring faith in the government. Suharto’s Golkar, although running a distant third in the early ballot count, is unlikely to relinquish power without resorting to its old tricks of buying influence. It has both the wealth and the well-oiled party machine to influence the formation of the new government and the election of a new president in November. So it is essential that the winning parties in the parliamentary election don’t lose their advantage in back-room bargaining.

Whoever forms the new government will also have to earn the trust of outsiders, whose investment is crucial to Indonesia’s economic development. In the financial crisis that swept Southeast Asia last year, Indonesia’s economy shrank by more than 13% and the rupiah lost nearly a third of its value. The crisis plunged some 20 million Indonesians into poverty, forcing one out of every five to live on less than $1 a day. Implementing an economic restructuring program outlined by the International Monetary Fund would go a long way toward restoring investors’ confidence.

The new government will have to deal with ethnic and separatist violence in some outlying provinces, especially Aceh and Irian Jaya, which have been exploited by the central government and left out of decision-making in Jakarta. The incoming regime should also stick to Jakarta’s agreement to let the people of the formerly Portuguese East Timor vote on self-determination in August.

Scant as they are, the early results give a sizable lead to Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Democratic Party-Struggle, with the National Awakening Party of Muslim leader Abdurrahman Wahid trailing. If the trend continues, the two parties, which have formed a fragile alliance, might well have enough votes to form a government, giving Megawati a good chance of being elected president. While not a proven leader, Megawati is immensely popular and represents everything the discredited Golkar did not. She stands for change, and Indonesia needs it.