Prepare as You Might for Any Disaster

Preparing for disaster is like a fine balancing act--prepare too little and you could regret it; prepare too much and you’ve spent a bundle on supplies that just gather dust in the closet.

The year 2000 problem is an even trickier event to prepare for since the range of potential problems is so broad. Nothing could happen, or there could be widespread power outages, computer breakdowns and disruptions to banking and medical facilities.

The possibilities are endless, and the effect of the year 2000 could extend for weeks or even months after Jan. 1 as small problems cascade into one another.

The question is: Which one of all these possibilities are you supposed to plan for?

There is no simple answer. In the end, preparing for the year 2000 has become a highly personal endeavor, dependent on each person’s perception of his or her own vulnerability. Perhaps the best advice is to build a solid foundation of preparations and then improve on it up to your own comfort level.

The best place to start is with the disaster preparedness recommendations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Red Cross--the backbones of disaster agencies.

FEMA believes the year 2000 problem will probably cause only minor problems, and it has no specific advice for preparing, except to say that people should follow its general guidelines for disaster preparedness.

“We’re treating the possibility of year 2000 problems like we would a hurricane or a severe winter storm,” said FEMA spokesman Marc Wolfson. “Everything that we know indicates that we’re not going to have massive disruptions, but we may have some local disruptions.”

FEMA recommends that all households assemble a disaster kit with enough supplies to last at least three days. All the items should be stored in a single container, such as a backpack, duffel bag or covered trash container.

The basic kit should include:

* A three-day supply of water (one gallon per person per day) and food that won’t spoil.

* One change of clothing and footwear per person, and one blanket or sleeping bag per person.

* A first-aid kit that includes your family’s prescription medications.

* Emergency tools, including a battery-powered radio, flashlight and plenty of extra batteries.

* An extra set of car keys and a credit card, cash or traveler’s checks.

* Sanitation supplies.

* Special items for infant, elderly or disabled family members.

* An extra pair of glasses.

Important family documents should be kept in a waterproof container, and a smaller disaster kit should be kept in the trunk of your car.

“This is what we consider to be the minimum level of preparedness,” Wolfson said. “If someone wants to over-prepare, that’s a matter of personal choice.”

The Red Cross’ recommendations are similar to FEMA’s, with the addition of a few extras that are specifically aimed at potential millennium bug problems.

The Red Cross recommendations include:

* A scan of all essential computer-controlled equipment in the home, including fire and security alarm systems, programmable thermostats and electronic locks.

* A stock of disaster supplies to last from several days to a week.

* A minimum of half a tank of gasoline in your car for the New Year’s holidays.

* An alternative cooking device in case of power failure.

The suggestions from FEMA and the Red Cross will be fine for most people, but if you want to be even more prepared, stepping beyond them requires time and money--often lots of both.

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There are plenty of sources that advocate stronger measures, including stockpiling large amounts of cash, gold, fuel and even weapons to meet the new year.

The problem is that preparing for the absolute worst can make the situation worse--the panic can start to overshadow the problem itself. That scenario has begun to worry disaster planners, who fear that rabid stockpiling will become a disaster of its own.

For example, if everyone in the country withdrew their savings and topped off their fuel tanks on New Year’s Eve, the country would literally be brought to a standstill. There just isn’t enough gas or cash to go around.

The government has already announced plans to have extra cash on hand for the New Year’s weekend in case of a run on banks.

The Red Cross is recommending that people gradually increase their supplies over the next few months to avoid a storm on stores and banks at the last moment that could cause panic.

For those who want to venture beyond the basic FEMA and Red Cross guidelines, several survival equipment companies have a wide range of products. These companies have capitalized on the anxiety over the year 2000 problem by selling freeze-dried food, gold coins, bulk vitamins and portable stoves.

Safe-Trek Outfitters of Bozeman, Mont., one of the oldest names in survival food and equipment, has put out a 100-page catalog packed with survival goodies, titled “Y-2K Meltdown?”

Other suppliers that have seen a big boost in business because of the year 2000 include Lehman’s Hardware & Appliance Inc. of Kidron, Ohio, one of the nation’s biggest suppliers of nonelectrical appliances, and Walton Feed Inc. of Montpelier, Idaho.

Some of the products, such as the $4,000 wood-burning cookstove from Lehman’s and the $3,999 pack of survival food that can feed four people for a year, may seem a bit overboard for most people, but the companies offer a full range of products, allowing you to pick what seems appropriate.

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One last area to prepare is your financial records and bills. Many types of complex record keeping are done today by computer, so they are vulnerable to the year 2000 problem.

Most financial institutions, including banks, are required to keep backup copies of critical records stored electronically. Even with some failures, it is unlikely that records would be completely erased.

Nonetheless, FEMA recommends that people keep copies of bills and statements to be on the safe side, adding that keeping copies is a good practice with or without a disaster.

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Year 2000 Resource List

Repair

EDS Vendor 2000: A searchable list of 150,000 products at https://www.vendor2000.com

NSTL YMark2000: Year 2000 testing tool for system hardware at https://www.nstl.com/html/nstl_ymark2000.html

Symantec Free BIOS Test and Fix: Free tool to check system hardware at https://www.symantec.com/sabu/n2000/fs_retail.html

Microsoft Year 2000 Resource Center: Site to order the Microsoft Year 2000 Resource CD-ROM at https://www.microsoft.com/y2k

Microsoft Consumer Year 2000 Resources: https://computingcentral.com/guide/year2000/MSY2k

Microsoft Product Analyzer: Scanning tool for Microsoft applications at https://www.microsoft.com/technet/year2k/pca/pca.htm

Preparedness

Federal Emergency Management Agency Y2K Issues: At https://www.fema.gov/y2k

FEMA’s Y2K for Kids: At https://www.fema.gov/kids/y2k.htm

FEMA’s Preparedness Recommendations: At https://www.fema.gov/pte/prepare.htm

American Red Cross: “Y2K, What You Should Know” at https://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html; and “Disaster Supplies Kit” at https://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/supplies.html

Information

U.S. Government Accounting Office: Reports on the Year 2000 computing crisis at https://www.gao.gov/y2kr.htm

President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion:

At https://www.y2k.gov and toll-free information line at (888) USA-4-Y2K (872-4925)

Small Business Administration: Information and help for Y2K loans at https://www.sba.gov/y2k

News

Year 2000 Information Center

Year 2000 news archive at https://www.year2000.com/y2karticles.html

Year 2000 News: At https://www.year2000news.com

Yahoo! Year 2000 News: At https://headlines.yahoo.com/Full_Coverage/Tech/Year_2000_Problem/

Investments

Securities and Exchange Commission: At https://www.sec.gov/news/home2000.htm

de Jager Year 2K Stock Index: Amex symbol YTK

Bloomberg Year 2000 Index: Bloomberg symbol Y2K

Homestate Year 2000 Fund: Nasdaq symbol HSYTX

Fun

Merant Year 2000 Countdown Clock: Interesting screen saver at https://www.microfocus.com/year2000/year2000.zip