GOP Presidential Aspirants Attempt to Stand Out Amid a Crowded Field

In a world with 100-channel cable systems and Internet sites for every conceivable persuasion, perhaps it makes sense that there could soon be 11 candidates for the next Republican presidential nomination.

No fewer than seven of them turned out over the weekend for the California state Republican convention here. And that list didn’t even include Ohio Rep. John R. Kasich (who’s already signaled he’s running), two-time hopeful Patrick J. Buchanan (who’s due to take the plunge again Tuesday), Texas Gov. George W. Bush (who’s expected to announce an exploratory committee next week) and former American Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole (who is considering her own bid). Whether any of these 11 can win back the White House remains to be seen; but if nothing else, Republicans may soon be able to field a regulation squad for football.

That’s a lot of names competing for limited resources of attention, money and time. Even just the seven in attendance here challenged the stamina of the most die-hard political junkies. Those who spoke near the end of the long parade faced the daunting knowledge that anything they might do had already been done before, and probably better. Arizona Sen. John McCain, who actually spoke first, likened the problem to the wedding-night lament of one of Zsa Zsa Gabor’s later husbands: “I know what I’m supposed to do; I just don’t know how to make it interesting.”

Maybe the best way to understand the dynamics of such a crowded field is to think about your cable box. There are too many channels to count. There is almost no channel whose offerings are not being duplicated somewhere else. And still, with all the choices available, most of us still check out what’s on the networks first.

So too with the Republicans. The sheer number of choices is defining the challenge for all of the candidates not named Bush or Dole. In early polls, only those two have shown broad network-like appeal across the party (and hers may be thin). As the weekend showed, that’s pushing the other contenders toward a cable-like strategy of narrowcasting. Each is now focusing less on building a broad coalition than on finding a specific slice of the electorate large enough to lift him into the finals when the field narrows by early next year.

“It’s so crowded out there, you’ve got to find a niche,” says Brian Kennedy, the senior strategist for former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, who’s due to announce his second bid for the nomination next week.

Two of those who spoke here--anti-abortion crusader Alan Keyes and New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith--are essentially protest candidates running to give voice to the concerns of the most adamant social conservatives. The other five were aiming at broader slices.

The most iconoclastic in that group was McCain. On Friday, he preached civility, inclusion and campaign finance reform--ideas that could make him an attractive general election candidate but didn’t much stir the partisans in the hall. McCain could ultimately appeal to primary voters disenchanted with politics as usual, but since he hasn’t yet congealed that message, the core of his attraction today is his personal heroism as a combat pilot and POW in Vietnam. For now, the man is his own message. Eventually, he’ll need more.

Alexander is also struggling to find his place; indeed, as a candidate, he seems almost a split personality. Good Lamar, the one evident here, speaks thoughtfully about reforming the tax code, the workplace and the public schools to put them “on the side of parents raising small children.” Bad Lamar slashes--with disconcerting enthusiasm--at anyone ahead of him in the polls (the way he’s lashed at Bush recently). Bad Lamar gets more attention from the press, but Good Lamar may have a better chance of finding a niche as the voice of young couples struggling to balance work and home.

Three of the other aspirants who came here are burrowing for a niche on the right. Starting from opposite directions, former Vice President Dan Quayle and publisher Steve Forbes are converging on precisely the same turf.

In the 1990s, Quayle has been best known as a champion of social conservative causes, particularly banning abortion. But now he’s quietly assembled an ambitious agenda on a full range of domestic issues--including a 30% cut in income tax rates, the conversion of all federal education programs into a massive block grant and a consolidation of Cabinet departments.

Forbes is still touting the Reagan-on-fast-forward domestic agenda that he offered in 1996--a single-rate flat tax, large-scale privatization of Social Security and education vouchers. His new element is a much greater emphasis on social concerns--particularly banning abortion. (“The first order of compassion,” Forbes insisted here, “is protecting the unborn.”) Forbes is trying to cut into Quayle’s audience among social conservatives; Quayle is targeting Forbes’ economic conservatives. It’s as if CNBC began airing prayer breakfasts and Pat Robertson started touting stocks on “The 700 Club.”

The biggest problem facing both Forbes and Quayle may be the doubts about their ability to win a general election. That problem is even more acute for Gary Bauer, a leading social conservative who’s also running. Bauer offered an energetic blend of cultural conservatism and economic populism here Saturday, but he’ll face a second problem this week with the thudding return of Buchanan as a competitor for precisely the same limited audience. (That’s as if there were suddenly two 24-hour golf channels competing for viewers.)

Bauer wasn’t the only one worrying about footsteps offstage. While there was surprisingly little activity for Dole, Bush cast a large shadow from afar. Hundreds of delegates signed petitions urging him to run. And as in other states, more than half of the California Republican state legislators--moderates and conservatives alike--have pledged to support him.

That breadth of appeal sets Bush apart as the one true network-sized contender in a field of cable candidates. The key question ahead is whether he can hold that mass audience once he actually steps out and begins broadcasting his own message to the voters.