Defense Project Strains U.S.-China Ties

When North Korea launched a crude satellite-bearing rocket in August, it was not just a remarkable technological achievement by one of the world’s poorest and most isolated nations.

The test-firing of the multistage ballistic missile, which disintegrated over the north Pacific, created a political and military fallout that stretched from Tokyo to Washington to Beijing.

The missile, which streaked just north of Japan’s crowded main island, Honshu, shocked Tokyo into finally committing to joint missile defense research with the United States.

It stunned U.S. officials when it soared more than two-thirds of the distance to Hawaii and Alaska. As a result, the Clinton administration, prodded by Congress, accelerated research on “theater missile defense” systems, or TMD, to shield its forces in Asia.

And that acceleration, plus Beijing’s worries about Japan’s newfound interest in the project and Taiwan’s hopes that it too could benefit from TMD, have eroded the United States’ already prickly relations with China.

To the U.S., North Korea’s test launch means that an unpredictable and potentially hostile regime with suspected chemical and biological weapons, plus the ability to build nuclear arms, could threaten the 100,000 American troops in Asia, and is well on its way to developing a missile that could hit U.S. shores.

Beijing, which maintains close ties to Pyongyang, claims that the U.S. is exaggerating the threat from North Korea to contain China’s growing power in the region. Russia also condemned the proposed U.S. network of satellites, radars and interceptors, in part because it could be used in the Middle East and Europe.

The high-tech hardware for such systems doesn’t yet exist, despite about $60 billion of antimissile research since President Reagan launched “Star Wars” 16 years ago. Yet that has not slowed the race--or the controversy.

At a time when U.S.-China relations are deteriorating on several fronts, Beijing views TMD as an aggressive attempt by the United States to expand its military alliances in Asia and its commitments to defend Taiwan, which China views as a renegade province.

“This is to contain China,” said Sha Zukang, director general of China’s Department of Arms Control and Disarmament. “We don’t want to be the enemy of the U.S. But some people have appointed us as the U.S. enemy.”

U.S. Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen insisted that TMD “in no way poses a threat” to China. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright also tried to reassure China during her recent visit to Beijing, characterizing TMD as “hypothetical.”

China Says It Might Build More Weapons

Chinese officials are furious--and are fighting back. In recent interviews and in increasingly strident public statements, senior officials warned that they might step up their weapons production to overwhelm any antimissile system.

“This will cause a new arms race,” warned He Yafei, a senior Chinese diplomat in Washington and Sha’s former deputy. “This is very destabilizing.”

Even more ominous, China has hinted that it will back out of the Missile Technology Control Regime, an international accord to limit exports of missile technology. China has pledged to adhere to the accord but has not signed it.

A warning shot came in the Feb. 14 issue of the Liberation Army Daily, the newspaper of China’s military. It pointedly warned that “since the United States can diffuse missile technology to Northeast Asia, other countries can naturally also diffuse missile technology to the Middle East, South Asia, and even to America’s backyard.”

TMD advocates in the United States say those threats only prove the need for better missile defense.

“The Chinese hate TMD because it blunts their new weapons,” argued Peter W. Rodman, a China expert at the Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom in Washington.

One of China’s overriding concerns is that TMD will be shared with Taiwan. Put simply, Beijing fears that if Taiwan gets TMD, its leaders may feel sufficiently safe from mainland missiles that they will be emboldened to declare independence.

“If that happens, China will have no choice except to resort to means of force to unify the country,” Sha warned.

The threat is not taken lightly.

Clinton Takes Threats to Taiwan Seriously

In 1996, President Clinton ordered two aircraft carrier groups to patrol the Taiwan Strait after Beijing lobbed unarmed missiles into waters off Taiwan on the eve of the island’s first presidential elections.

Although the crisis abated, U.S. experts say Beijing now has about 100 conventionally armed missiles in bases across from Taiwan, more than double the force three years ago. A recent Pentagon report predicted that China’s current missile buildup will give it an “overwhelming advantage” over Taiwan by 2005.

Washington is committed under law to sell weapons to Taiwan to defend itself, but it has made no firm promises on TMD. For now, Taiwan has been allowed to buy the Modified Air Defense System, an improved version of the U.S. Patriot surface-to-air missile that was used with much fanfare but limited success against Iraqi Scuds during the Persian Gulf War.

South Korea already has Patriot batteries at key military facilities, and Seoul recently announced plans to upgrade as soon as possible.

However, South Korea may benefit least from TMD because its proximity to North Korea leaves little lead time to shoot down incoming missiles.

Beijing apparently will not object if Washington deploys TMD to protect U.S. troops and bases in Asia.

“If you want to defend your forward deployment, we can’t say anything,” said Chen Kai Zeng, vice chairman of the government-linked China Institute for International Strategic Studies.

It is Japan’s interest in TMD that seems to most concern China. Beijing complains bitterly about Tokyo’s interest in the system, warning that such advanced know-how will encourage Tokyo to build offensive missiles and threaten its neighbors.

Although North Korea has been able to hit Japan since 1983 with short-range Nodong missiles, Tokyo repeatedly refused to commit to TMD. However, a public furor erupted after Pyongyang’s rocket flew overhead last summer. In November, Tokyo approved plans for the first time to begin joint research with Washington on seaborne missile defense. It also announced plans to launch its first four spy satellites.

“For this, we thank the North Koreans,” said Toshiro Ozawa, deputy director in Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Indeed, TMD is now the “core issue” for Japanese defense policy, said Masashi Nishihara, professor of international relations at Japan’s National Defense Academy.

Some officials say Tokyo hopes to use TMD as a bargaining chip to get China to reduce its missile force.

“The purpose is to get China to the table,” said Satoshi Morimoto, an analyst at the Nomura Research Institute. “Then we can scrub TMD. North Korea will collapse in a few years anyway.”

Such plans may be premature.

Analysts have been predicting the collapse of North Korea for years. And repeated failures, delays and staggering costs have plagued every proposed antimissile system since 1983.

Research has continued nonstop since then, costing about $4 billion a year, but it has not produced a single new major weapons system.

Other U.S. Weapons Systems Have Failed

The most promising effort would replace aging Patriots with a maneuverable new guided missile. Once deployed, the Patriot PAC-3 system would help protect cities, air bases and other relatively small areas from low-altitude Scud-type missiles.

The U.S. Army’s other chief program, the land-based Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, is more problematic. In theory, high-speed missiles would be cued from satellites to intercept enemy ballistic missiles 25 miles in space. In practice, THAAD has failed five out of five tests and is no longer considered a likely short-term solution.

As a result, additional funds are now being pumped into the U.S. Navy’s rival Theater Wide System. As conceived, modified Aegis cruisers and destroyers, the backbone of the U.S. fleet, could patrol near hot spots and shoot down missiles at varying altitudes. It has failed four out of four tests.

Finally, the Air Force seeks to develop a powerful laser in a modified Boeing 747-400 jet. Still on the drawing board, the airborne super-laser would fire a basketball-sized beam of intense heat on an enemy missile just after it cleared the clouds, causing it to explode and fall back on enemy territory.

Just as they did with Reagan’s original “Star Wars” program, skeptics dismiss the scheme, and much of the antimissile research, as owing more to science fiction than to science.

“It’s very difficult to hit a bullet with a bullet in space,” said Robert Manning, Asia director at the Council on Foreign Relations. “But the bigger problem is that Americans are in a quest for absolute security. And there’s no such thing.”