‘50-50’ Chance for China WTO Deal

U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky said Thursday that she now believes “the chances are 50-50” that the U.S. will reach a deal for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization.

Lower-level officials in the U.S. Trade Representative’s office have been conducting intensive talks with Chinese negotiators in Beijing this week. But Barshefsky said in an interview that China would still have to make further concessions in a number of areas before it would be worthwhile for her to visit China and upgrade the talks.

Moreover, she added, “If I go to China, it would not be to close a deal. It would be to push and to lay out our views.”

Barshefsky’s remarks appeared to be aimed at dampening recent speculation that a far-reaching deal opening the way for China’s entry into the WTO will be concluded when Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji visits Washington in two weeks.

“I don’t see the Zhu visit as some sort of deadline,” Barshefsky told The Times. “My deadline is a commercially meaningful deal.”

China is the only one of the world’s leading trading nations that is not now a member of the WTO, the organization that sets the rules for international trade and that sets up procedures for settling trade disputes.

In general, the Clinton administration has been trying to bring China into the international organizations that set the rules in a number of policy areas, such as those regulating nuclear and missile technology. A deal for China’s WTO entry would be part of that larger effort.

In order to join the WTO, China would have to phase out a number of restrictions on access to its domestic market in a way that might benefit American companies. Some of the disputes between the U.S. and China are over how much time China would be allowed before opening its markets.

Washington and Beijing have talked about a WTO agreement on and off for the last decade without success. But last month, Chinese officials told the Clinton administration that Beijing was interested in concluding a deal at the time of Zhu’s trip here. They said Zhu, the official directly in charge of China’s economy, would personally oversee the negotiations.

Since then, China has offered a number of reforms and economic changes, U.S. trade officials said. For example, Chinese trade officials have gone further than in the past in promising to open China’s telecommunications industry.

However, Barshefsky said Thursday that “there are a number of open issues and gaps, spanning the three huge areas--goods, services and agriculture--that still need to be resolved.

“The question whether an agreement can be reached is up to the Chinese. They would have to take a further very large step. They need to make additional movement in a variety of areas and sectors.”

For China, one of the principal benefits of a WTO deal would be a chance to obtain normal, or most-favored-nation, trade benefits in the U.S. on a permanent basis.