Against All Odds

More than 1,400 players were selected in baseball’s amateur draft last June. More than half of them sign contracts and begin their careers in the minor leagues. Virtually all of them believe they have a chance to make it to the big leagues.

Only about one of 10 probably will, based on a Baseball America study. That survey placed the figure at 10.6% of those who sign professional contracts, including non-drafted free agents and foreign players.

Some will be there for only a short time: a late-season call-up in September when rosters are expanded or as a fill-in for a few games when a player is on the disabled list. The odds are even slimmer for a player to spend as many as three seasons in the majors.

Many will realize after a few years in the minors that their dream won’t become reality.

“So much can happen between the time most players are drafted and when they might have a chance to play in the major leagues,” said Reid Nichols, director of player development for the Texas Rangers. “A lot of things can go wrong, even for players who are high draft picks.”

A top pitching prospect might develop arm or shoulder problems. A player who hit .350 in college with a high-powered aluminum bat suddenly struggles to stay above the Mendoza Line (.200) with a wooden bat. And some players might simply lose interest after their bonuses are in the bank.

No player has gone directly to the majors since John Olerud of the Toronto Blue Jays in 1989. Jim Abbott also did it with the Angels in 1988, but only 15 others have started their careers in the majors since the draft began in 1965.

“There aren’t many shortcuts in baseball,” Nichols said. “A few players move up quickly, but most have to spend some time in the minor leagues. We’re fairly unique from that standpoint, other than maybe in hockey.”

In contrast, the NFL drafted 240 players in 1997, and 78% of them were on 53-man rosters at the start of the season, according to league statistics. Others were kept on practice squads. The NFL has averaged about a 20% turnover rate in recent years, and some teams might keep a rookie on the roster instead of a veteran in a backup role to reduce payroll or to stay under the salary cap.

Gene Washington, who played in the NFL for 11 years and is now its director of football development, says he’s not surprised by the difference between football and baseball.

“In my opinion, hitting a baseball is the most highly skilled thing in sports,” said Washington, a four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers who played football, basketball and baseball at Long Beach Poly High.

“I’m willing to give credit where I think it’s due. The quarterback position is the only thing that comes close to it in pro football, and it’s the mental learning that is necessary there. I can see why it takes more time for a baseball player to hone that skill.”

The success rate also is high in the NBA because it limits its draft to two rounds. Marty Blake, director of NBA scouting, says 84% of the first-round picks and 34% of the second-round picks make an NBA team their first year. Other former college players end up in the Continental Basketball Assn. or go overseas to play, still hoping for an NBA shot.

Some get it. The NBA has a player development contract with the CBA, and a record 105 former CBA players appeared on NBA rosters at some point last season, 32 of them in the playoffs. Most of the call-ups each season are roster fill-ins because of injuries. But some, such as John Starks of the Golden State Warriors, flourish.

“Baseball seldom gets a guy who helps out right away,” Blake said. “It’s a developmental process. We’re also drafting for the future, but sometimes the future is now.”

Professional hockey is more like baseball in that it must project potential over a longer timeline.

Only a few players in the entry draft each year have a realistic chance to make it into the NHL immediately. Of the 26 first-round selections in the 1997 draft, seven were on NHL rosters last season and only three appeared in more than 40 games, according to a league spokesman.

Of the 240-plus players selected in 1997, many are younger prospects from the Canadian junior leagues, but an increasing number of players in recent years have come from Europe. Only about 10% in the 1997 draft were from U.S. colleges.

“In hockey, we draft a lot of kids,” said Pierre Gauthier, general manager of the Mighty Ducks. “So it really takes about five years for us to evaluate a draft. There are fewer and fewer opportunities to get players ready to play right away in our draft. Of the nine players we draft each year, we expect two to three to be prospects after three to five years. But the important thing is getting quality. It’s better to get one good one.”

NHL teams maintain the rights to the players if they don’t sign them, and some might continue playing with their clubs in the Canadian junior leagues or in Europe. The Ducks recently signed Johan Davidsson, four years after taking him in the second round.

Gauthier says NHL teams average about 2 1/2 rookies per year.

While the colleges have become de facto farm systems for the NFL and the NBA, professional baseball has been reluctant to rely as much on them for player development. Aluminum bats are a big reason.

“We think it makes a huge difference for a hitter,” said Brian Sabean, the San Francisco Giants’ general manager. “A batter can do a lot of things wrong with an aluminum bat and still have it result in a base hit. Anybody in the lineup with an aluminum bat is dangerous. We’ve also found that a lot of pitchers don’t develop a true fastball in college. “I’m a great fan of college baseball, but there aren’t as many good college baseball programs around the country as there are good college football and basketball programs.”

Sabean believes that’s one of the reasons why the football and basketball players coming out of college are better prepared. “Put a lot of those college baseball programs in the Northwest League, and they’d have trouble holding their own,” he said. “Selfishly, that’s why we prefer to get a player sooner rather than later.”

In 1997, 29% of the 786 players who signed contracts had just finished high school. Adjusting to the rigors of minor league baseball can be particularly difficult for some 17- and 18-year-olds.

“All of a sudden they’re playing baseball every day and traveling a lot, and they’re not used to it,” Sabean said. “It’s a grind. There are a lot of distractions. If they get married, spouses get involved. And some guys just won’t have the willingness to hang in there. It’s a long, rocky road for a lot of players.”

Minor league baseball also can be a humbling experience.

“That’s why character is so important to us,” Nichols said. “We’d rather have a player with maybe a little less talent, but with the character to get him over the rough spots he’ll experience in the minor leagues. If they’re not able to deal with that, they’ll have a problem.”

Typically, many players are weeded out in double-A. “That’s the biggest step for a lot of players,” said Keith Lieppman, director of player development for the Oakland Athletics. “I’ve seen a lot of players drown in double-A. And usually, if a player has repeated the same league two or three times, his odds of reaching the big leagues diminish quite a bit. After a player spends five years in the minors, he should be in the majors or very close to it. Sometimes an older player will have to show it in three or four.”

Getting to the major leagues is one thing, but staying there is another.

Agent Scott Boras says a study by his office of players drafted from 1983 through 1988 showed that only about 3.5% played as many as three seasons in the majors through the 1997 season. It drops to 1% for six seasons, Boras says.

Bigger signing bonuses have brought a push to advance top prospects more quickly.

“The difference is, the price of poker is getting high,” San Diego Padres General Manager Kevin Towers said. “We’re not making $1,000 mistakes any more, we’re making $1-million ones.”

Sal Bando, the general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, says he has some concerns about the high number of players signed each year. “One of the problems is that we’re spending more money for less talent,” Bando said. “A lot of us are filling out our minor league rosters with non-prospects. I don’t think the quality is what it used to be.”

But major league teams are spending around $10 million a year on scouting and player development, and sometimes a guy drafted to fill out a roster develops beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. Mike Piazza wasn’t drafted until the 62nd round in 1988, and was in the minors for 3 1/2 seasons before he became an all-star catcher for the Dodgers.

“It’s sort of a crapshoot and a lot of it is luck,” Towers said. “There will always be guys like Piazza, who are diamonds in the rough. But if we draft five to seven players who make it to the major leagues, that’s pretty darn good.”

Times staff writer Chris Foster contributed to this story.