Forecasts Looking Up as State Jobless Rate Drops
California’s economic prospects continue to brighten, with joblessness on the decline in April and sharp improvements projected as the year unfolds, a pair of reports showed Friday.
Job growth accelerated in April, driving the state unemployment rate back down to a near-nine-year low of 5.6%, as the state added 26,200 nonfarm jobs in April--double the average of the previous two months, the Employment Development Department said.
And a report by California Finance Department economists projected that California would add about 450,000 jobs this year--far more than previously expected. They predicted that personal incomes, housing starts and retail sales all would either match or exceed last year’s stellar increases.
That report said the revisions were based partly on the state’s very strong personal income tax withholdings in the last few months, which suggest that California’s job growth is even stronger than indicated in the monthly EDD labor reports.
The April job growth was broad-based, geographically and by industries. Hiring was brisk in construction/engineering and health services. And manufacturing posted a small payroll increase last month, reversing five straight months of declines.
The state’s jobless rate was down from 5.8% in March. Unemployment among African Americans in California edged down further, to 9%, from 10% at the start of the year. The rate for Latinos held steady at about 8.5%.
Orange County’s jobless rate dipped to 2.6% last month, from a revised 2.7% in March, although that figure was not adjusted for seasonal variations. Partly because of the exceedingly low unemployment, hiring in the county’s manufacturing and retail sectors has slowed noticeably from last year’s sizzling pace. The latest report, though, suggested continued strength in the big services sector--from attendants at amusement parks to high-paying software engineers.
In April, Orange County’s year-over-year job growth rate was second only to the construction-driven booming economy of Riverside-San Bernardino counties, known as the Inland Empire.
In Los Angeles County, the jobless rate declined from a revised 6.5% in March to 6.2%, the lowest since September 1990. However, the Los Angeles-centered motion picture industry showed continued weakness, declining by a seasonally adjusted 2,500 jobs statewide. Hiring in apparel manufacturing, which also has been eroding lately, was flat.
Still, the region’s economy remains solid, said Joseph Magaddino, chairman of the economics department at Cal State Long Beach. He said his department’s latest series of Southland economic indicators, which includes building permits, help-wanted ads and stock prices of local companies, showed steady gains this year through April. “It looks pretty strong,” he said.
By EDD’s count, California’s job growth in April was running at an annual rate of 2.9%--compared with last year’s growth of 3.6%. But the state’s monthly reports are based on surveys of generally large firms and do not include businesses formed within the last two years.
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Unemployment Dips
Orange County’s unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in April from 2.7% in March.
The 13-month trend:
Apr. ‘98: 2.6%
Apr. ‘99: 2.6%
Figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Employment Development Department
