Zedillo’s Nod to Democracy Could Take Tortuous Twists

Mexico’s Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) has taken a bold step by opening up the selection process of its presidential candidate to a nationwide primary, but, ironically, the process may backfire because a hard-line, anti-democratic candidate could emerge the winner.

The reform is a radical change in the PRI’s standard operating procedures, but does not necessarily portend a happy ending to Mexico’s democratic transition. President Ernesto Zedillo’s proposal is a big reform with a big risk.

Zedillo endorsed the reforms because he needed to rein in unruly PRI politicians, promote party unity and buy time to bolster his own choice for a successor. One of his key political enemies, Tabasco Gov. Roberto Madrazo, had backed the president into a corner. When Zedillo decided to toss out the dedazo--the time-honored tradition whereby the incumbent president hand-picked his successor--Madrazo took him at his word and launched his own presidential bid, without Zedillo’s blessing.

Employing a sophisticated prime-time television campaign, Madrazo has made himself the front-runner among the PRI candidates, the man to beat. But he has also long been the president’s foil. Years ago, Zedillo pushed for Madrazo’s resignation due to illegal spending during his run for the governorship. Madrazo stood up to him, rallied loyal PRI troops in his home state and managed to remain in power.

Clearly, Madrazo is not the president’s man. A believer in the old state-led, populist economic model, Madrazo is antithetical to everything Zedillo and his administration say they stands for and would like to institutionalize: free markets and clean elections.

In one respect, the decision to hold an open primary will have the effect of keeping Madrazo’s campaign in check. According to the new rules, campaigns for the primary cannot start until Aug. 1, which will put a halt to Madrazo’s television blitz at least until then. Zedillo obviously hopes to take the wind out of the unruly governor’s sails and also weaken the fortunes of another early PRI campaigner, former Puebla Gov. Manuel Bartlett.

The reforms also are geared to promote internal unity in a divided party. Over the past year, in elections in key states, the PRI lost when and where it suffered internal divisions. Madrazo and Bartlett had called for a primary and had threatened to bolt from the PRI if their calls were not heeded. Their defection would have virtually guaranteed the unraveling of the ruling party in the forthcoming presidential election. Madrazo and Bartlett had upped the ante. When these dinosaurs and their followers in the PRI metamorphosed into democrats, Zedillo had little choice but to endorse a primary.

By offering a primary on a silver platter, Zedillo has made it virtually impossible for Madrazo and Bartlett to leave the PRI without losing face. Instead of alienating members of the old guard, Zedillo is attempting to tame them.

By calling for a primary that won’t take place until November, Zedillo is buying time that he desperately needs to build a campaign for his personal favorite, Francisco Labastida. Although the president has publicly adopted a “hands off” approach to the selection process, in all likelihood he will try to maneuver behind the scenes to ensure that Labastida, his minister of the Interior, becomes the PRI’s candidate.

A longtime PRI bureaucrat, Labastida is considered gray and harmless enough to bridge the divide between PRI hard-liners and modernizers. Labastida has played by the traditional rules of the game and kept a low profile while waiting for the presidential nod. As a result, he is lagging in the polls.

Between now and the primary, Zedillo will have time to endorse Labastida and help his campaign. The president’s gambit, however, may ultimately backfire. According to the new guidelines, PRI hard-liners like former minister of the Interior Fernando Gutierrez Barrios will be in charge of running the primary. In other words, the rules may have changed but the players have not. Members of the PRI’s traditional machinery at the local level could reject the president’s pressure and instead support Madrazo, whom they consider one of their own. By promoting an open primary, Zedillo may be empowering the dinosaurs instead of the democrats.

The democratization of the one of the oldest dominant parties in the world thus may have unexpected outcomes. Despite its travails and despite opposition gains, the PRI remains the largest, most important party in Mexico. A transparent, aboveboard PRI primary would undoubtedly bolster the party’s credibility and ensure its staying power. But, paradoxically, a primary could propel the PRI back to the days when the party stood for patronage politics and protected markets, and when PRI dinosaurs ran amok.