Best of Possible Futures Now Seems Within Reach

In “Burden of Support,” which he co-wrote in 1988 with Werner Schink and Jorge Chapa, David Hayes-Bautista presented two possible scenarios for Latinos and California in 2030.

In the worst-case scenario, the state was 50% Latino and deeply divided. Whites lived in the suburbs and sent their children to private schools. Little was spent on public education of the Latino population, which was generally younger and poorer. Meanwhile, Latinos, who suffered political attacks, resented supporting the retired and better-off baby boomers.

In the best-case scenario, whites--chiefly the socially conscious baby boomers--recognized Latinos’ strengths and formed a coalition with them, investing in their education and entrepreneurship. As a result, Latinos came to play roles in all sectors of California life, helping the state (anchored largely by Latino labor) become a prosperous player in the Pacific Rim.

Hayes-Bautista admits that the second scenario did not seem very realistic to him or to other scholars when the book first was published. But now he says he can help draw a policy blueprint to achieve it.

“I didn’t know then about the Latino business community, the growth of the middle class, the rise of Latino political power,” he says. “I’m absolutely confident that best-case scenario is ours to lose.”