Investors Await PPI, Retail Sales Reports
Figures on producer prices and retail sales to be released this week will probably point to tame U.S. inflation and possibly a slower pace of growth, sustaining hopes the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates this month, analysts said.
The producer price index, which will be released Wednesday, probably increased 0.1% in October following September’s increase of 1.1%. Outside of food and energy, the PPI also probably increased 0.1%.
The Commerce Department will report retail sales Friday. They probably increased 0.1% in October, following an increase of 0.1% during September, analysts said. Sales gains had been higher earlier in the year, rising as much as 1.3% in January and February, for example. Last week, a number of retailers reported slower October sales, but analysts continue to predict a strong holiday season.
If the reports come in as expected, “you’re going to have the feeling that the barbarians are not at the gate” with rising inflation, said Robert Dederick, an economic consultant at the Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. “The Fed can afford to relax.”
Other reports due this week:
* Wholesale inventories probably increased in September, mirroring an increase in sales, analysts said. The Commerce Department report, set for release Tuesday, is expected to show a 0.4% increase in inventories for the month, following an increase of 0.3% in August, analysts said.
* The import prices index, also coming Tuesday, will probably show an increase of 0.1% for October following September’s increase of 0.7%, analysts said.
* First-time claims for state unemployment benefits probably remained below 300,000 in the week ended Nov. 6. Claims probably rose by 4,000 for the week to a seasonally adjusted 292,000, analysts said. The Labor Department will release the report Wednesday, a day earlier than usual. Federal agencies are closed Thursday for Veterans Day.
* Worker productivity, in a report due Friday, probably staged a rebound in the third quarter, rising at a 2.9% annual rate after increasing at a more restrained 0.6% during the second quarter, analysts said.
* Consumer confidence in the economy probably showed little change in early November, analysts said. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment, to be released Friday, probably increased to 103.9 for the month from 103.2 during October.
