Poll Finds Bush Has Lost His New Hampshire Lead

Texas Gov. George W. Bush is in a dead heat with insurgent Republican rival John McCain in a new poll of the New Hampshire voters who will decide the nation’s first presidential primary in February.

Bush still holds a commanding lead over other GOP presidential candidates in national surveys. But in New Hampshire, the 28-point lead that Bush recorded last Labor Day has vanished.

The latest survey released Thursday by American Research Group of Manchester, N.H., showed 38% of likely GOP voters favoring Bush and 35% favoring McCain, with a 4% margin of error.

The poll was based on 600 voters in this one tiny state, but tremors could be felt on the campaign trail and across the country. Just one day earlier, a separate survey from Dartmouth College rattled the Democratic contest by showing that Vice President Al Gore has regained a lead in New Hampshire over rival Bill Bradley.

Meanwhile, in New York, another poll on Thursday found Bradley stretching his lead over Gore. That Quinnipiac College poll found Bradley with 47% to Gore’s 38% in New York.

Presidential poll season is upon us. In all, there have been at least 37 public surveys of the presidential race since September, 12 of which were in New Hampshire, five in New York and two in Iowa.

Candidates are already either dismissing them as irrelevant or trumpeting them proudly. Experts say the important thing to remember is that although they provide scientifically obtained hard data, they are not important in the long run.

“Polls can be very volatile at this early time,” said Linda Fowler, professor of government at Dartmouth College, who conducted the poll released Wednesday. “They are snapshots.”

McCain’s campaign was naturally jubilant about Thursday’s results. “It’s incredible,” said McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies in Alexandria, Va. “Essentially with little or no advertising, just by John’s campaigning . . . we’ve taken an opponent who everybody thought was the shoo-in and dragged him into a dead even race. I can’t think of anything like this ever happening before.”

Dick Bennett, longtime president of the firm that conducted the poll, said respondents indicated that Bush’s skipping two debates there had cost him, as had his flubbing a quiz on world leaders from Boston reporter Andy Hiller, who is a known figure in New Hampshire.

The Bush camp was dismissive, however.

“Oh, there are a lot of polls out there,” spokeswoman Mindy Tucker said. “The one that counts will be taken on primary day.”

Nevertheless, Bush has significantly stepped up his campaign time and paid advertising in New Hampshire.