‘Toy Story 2’ Sets Table for Record Holiday Weekend

The final Thanksgiving weekend of the 20th century is likely to serve up a record box office feast with the new Disney/Pixar animated film “Toy Story 2” sure to lead the banquet.

Judging from the strong momentum of moviegoing heading into the holiday, the five-day frame--Wednesday through Sunday--is expected to best last year’s record overall take of $182.3 million.

“It looks like we’re on track to have a $200-million-plus record Thanksgiving,” said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations Co.

In addition to the anticipated strong showing of “Toy Story 2,” holiday business is expected to be buoyed by solid second-weekend performances of MGM’s latest James Bond movie, “The World is Not Enough” and Paramount Pictures’ Tim Burton horror film “Sleepy Hollow.”

Those films grossed $35.5 million and just over $30 million, respectively, marking the first time that two movies opened simultaneously with more than $30 million. They helped set a new record for the best pre-Thanksgiving weekend in movie history with an overall box office ante of $117.8 million, up 12% over the same weekend a year ago.

Also expected to add to the Thanksgiving weekend’s box office bonanza is Universal Pictures’ new Arnold Schwarzenegger movie “End Of Days,” which will likely appeal to older hard-core action fans.

It is going to be a top-heavy holiday weekend. The top five Thanksgiving films collectively could gross as much as $150 million for the five days, compared with 1998’s top-five total of $126.8 million, according to industry sources.

Disney is hopeful that “Toy Story 2,” the sequel to its original 1995 blockbuster, will gross $50 million or more over the Thanksgiving holiday.

If so, the studio will beat its own, as well as the movie industry’s, record for the best Thanksgiving opening, which was set by last year’s animated feature “A Bug’s Life” at $45.7 million, over the comparable five days.

Disney movies, in fact, have held a lock on the Thanksgiving parade for the last five years, including 1997’s live-action family film “Flubber” (with an opening gross of $35.9 million), 1996’s live-action family film “101 Dalmatians” ($45 million), 1995’s animated feature “Toy Story” ($39 million) and 1995’s live-action Tim Allen comedy “The Santa Clause” ($27.4).

Sequels typically gross two-thirds, or 60%, of the originals from which they sprang, because some of the originality is lost. But many believe “Toy Story 2” has a good chance of at least matching, if not outperforming, its predecessor, based on its rave reviews and strong pre-release interest.

The original, which first introduced the world to Woody (voiced by Tom Hanks) and Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen) grossed $191 million domestically.

Disney executives believe the final domestic tally of “Toy Story 2,” which adds some new characters to the mix, including Jessie the cowgirl, obsessive toy collector Al McWhiggin, Bullseye the horse and Stinky Pete the Prospector, could reach as high as $250 million.

That would beat the $217.3-million domestic gross of Disney’s 1992 animated hit “Aladdin,” which like “Toy Story” also featured a top comedic box office star--Robin Williams--in the lead role as the Genie. Consequently, both films appealed to older kids and adults as well as youngsters.

Based on how strong it is tracking with parents and women over 25 (who aren’t necessarily mothers), “Toy Story 2” interest resembles the kind of wide appeal normally associated with a live-action buddy comedy rather than an animated kids movie.

Disney, which last Thanksgiving had Paramount’s animated feature “The Rugrats Movie” nipping at its heels (though at $27.4 million it grossed a distant second to “A Bug’s Life”), has to be breathing a sigh of relief now that Warner Bros.’ animated film “Pokemon: The First Movie” plunged 60% in its second weekend after coming on like gangbusters with a $50-million five-day debut.

One of the main engines driving such initially robust ticket sales for the Japanese movie, which could still break the $100-million barrier, was the giveaway Pokemon cards.

But, as Dergarabedian points out, “Pokemon” will “still be a factor over the Thanksgiving weekend,” since kids’ movies tend to fare well over the out-of-school holidays.

And if overall box office expectations for the upcoming holiday don’t fall short, Hollywood will be overflowing in gravy.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Talking Turkey

In 1998, Thanksgiving weekend’s five-day box-office grosses set a record that could be broken this year with a strong lineup of films, led by “Toy Story 2.” Recent grosses, in millions:

*

1998: $182.3 million

*

Source: Exhibitor Relations Inc.