Advertisement

COMPANY TOWN : Seagram Stock Plunges on Growth Concerns : Finances: Analysts fear its music business won’t grow as rapidly as expected in fiscal first half.

Share
From Bloomberg News

Seagram Co. stock fell 9.1% on analysts’ concern that the company’s music business won’t grow as fast as expected in the first half of its fiscal year because of higher Internet-related spending and weak music sales overseas.

The stock fell $4.69 to close at $46.81 on the New York Stock Exchange, after touching $45, the lowest in six months.

Some analysts cut their profit forecasts to reflect weak growth in music in the first half of fiscal 2000; the year ends in June.

Advertisement

Seagram became the world’s largest music company after buying Polygram. Its business results will face tough comparisons to a year ago, and overseas sales are slowing.

Seagram has cut costs by trimming the number of acts on its roster and by other moves, but cash flow won’t benefit until the second half of fiscal 2000, analysts said.

“We’re comfortable that they will be able to demonstrate very strong growth in the music business, but not in the first half of the year,” PaineWebber analyst Christopher Dixon said.

Seagram is expected to generate cash flow from music of about $1 billion for the fiscal year ending in June, up 18% over fiscal 1999, according to Salomon Smith Barney analyst Jill Krutick.

Most of the growth will not occur in the first half of the fiscal year because of spending related to Seagram’s music initiatives on the Internet. Moreover, Seagram’s results for its fiscal first quarter will face tough comparisons to a year ago, when Polygram reported strong cash flow. Music cash flow for the first quarter is expected to rise just 5% to $175 million.

Cash flow--or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization--is used by many analysts to measure the performance of indebted media companies because it focuses on the underlying business and excludes the effect of interest payments and noncash charges such as amortization.

Advertisement

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst Rich Bilotti also lowered his forecasts for music cash flow to $1.01 billion for fiscal 2000 from $1.05 billion, attributing the decrease to weakness in the overseas music market, particularly in Brazil, Germany, Japan and France.

However, Krutick raised her fiscal-2000 forecast for Seagram to a net loss of 10 cents a share from a loss of 23 cents. The change reflects smaller losses from film because of strong ticket sales by Universal Pictures, and management fees for the company’s Islands of Adventure theme park.

Advertisement