The Early Numbers Are In

If one week of ratings are any indication, the new television season is quite literally taking a dramatic turn, as several new drama series have exhibited ratings promise while most fledgling sitcoms look virtually dead on arrival.

This is still somewhat heartening to the major networks, which despite a 3% decline in prime-time viewing for the Big Four compared to “premiere week” a year ago have witnessed some validation of their strategy scheduling 22 new drama series and just 14 sitcoms this fall, reversing the comedy-drama balance of recent years.

On the downside, not only are most new sitcoms foundering, but some returning comedies scheduled at 8:30 or 9:30 p.m. after established programs--including such satellites as ABC’s “It’s like, you know . . . “ and “The Norm Show”--haven’t done a good job retaining their lead-in audience either.

Even NBC’s “Must-See TV” Thursday lineup hasn’t been immune. “Jesse,” which stars Christina Applegate and underwent a creative overhaul after its first year, experienced a record dive from the ratings platform provided by “Friends,” while “Stark Raving Mad”--the new occupant of prime time’s coveted real estate after “Frasier”--chased away more than a quarter of the audience that tuned in for the five-time Emmy winner.

“No network seems to have premiered a comedy on the half-hour [8:30 or 9:30 p.m.] particularly well this season,” NBC Entertainment President Garth Ancier conceded.

By contrast, new one-hour programs have by and large opened respectably, at minimum demonstrating some conceptual interest in the shows. Long-term viability, as always, will ultimately depend on how many of those viewers choose to return in subsequent weeks.

Taking a first glance at the dramas, ABC’s “Once and Again” and “Snoops,” CBS’ sci-fi entry “Now and Again,” “Family Law” and “Judging Amy,” and NBC’s “The West Wing,” “Third Watch,” “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” and “Freaks and Geeks” all posted reasonably good ratings in light of time-slot expectations.

In the wake of languid summer ratings, viewers also answered the post-Labor Day dinner bell to watch popular series. Viewing spiked upward for such returning programs as “The Practice” (which, with a second consecutive best drama Emmy, drew its biggest audience ever Sunday), “JAG,” “Law & Order” and “Providence.”

Among the new comedies, NBC’s “The Mike O’Malley Show” appears seriously wounded following “Will & Grace,” which quickly established its credentials as a second-year hit by beating its principal rival, ABC’s “Dharma & Greg.” NBC is hoping “ER’s” return this week will inspire more people to try “Stark Raving Mad,” whose competition--Fox’s much-ballyhooed Hollywood spoof “Action”--stumbled out of the starting gate as well, despite mostly positive reviews.

In fact, Fox’s decision to challenge “Frasier” with the 6-month-old “Family Guy” appears flawed, as that animated comedy and “Action” attracted only about a fifth as many viewers last week. The pair finished fifth in the 9 o’clock Thursday hour behind the wrestling show “WWF Smackdown!,” which has more than doubled UPN’s average audience that night.

Aided in part by “Saturday Night Live’s” 25th anniversary show, NBC not only won the week but increased its audience compared to the corresponding period a year ago--the only major network to buck the trend toward dwindling ratings.

NBC averaged about 14.5 million viewers, 14.2 million people watched CBS (which received a boost from the Country Music Assn. Awards), ABC averaged 12.2 million and roughly 7.8 million watched Fox, based on Nielsen Media Research estimates.

All told, the networks lost about 1.5 million viewers versus premiere week in 1998, and all four witnessed a fall-off in viewing among adults ages 18 to 49--the broad demographic segment that most directly translates into advertising dollars. NBC, the only network to turn a profit in recent years, held a commanding advantage by that measure, followed by ABC.

If hardly time to pop champagne corks, then, the networks are nevertheless feeling somewhat upbeat given the doom-and-gloom forecasts that filled the summer.

“We are encouraged by the way people are tuning in to network television,” said NBC West Coast President Scott Sassa.

Much of the overall drop was attributable to Fox, which largely sat out premiere week and won’t launch the new seasons of its two most popular series, “Ally McBeal” and “The X-Files,” until Oct. 25 and Nov. 7, respectively. Still, the network already has cause for concern based on weak response generated by its early arrivals, including “Action” and the Wednesday night drama “Get Real.”

With nowhere to go but up, UPN has clearly benefited from the addition of wrestling, which helped boost its audience to an average 3.6 million viewers--a surge of more than 50% from a year ago. The WB also jumped 13% compared to last year’s premiere week, with an average audience of just over 4 million, thanks in part to “7th Heaven,” which even beat NBC’s “Suddenly Susan” and “Veronica’s Closet.”

If programmers decide to remain patient with under-performing programs, it may have to do as much with necessity as benevolence. Most of the networks came into the season with a shortage of backup series in production, severely limiting their options.

Several so-called “reality” shows are waiting in the wings, including NBC’s “World’s Most Amazing Videos,” CBS’ “Candid Camera” and Fox’s “Guinness World Records: Prime Time.” In addition, ABC will preempt numerous programs when the quiz show “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” returns for a 15-day run in November.

NBC and Fox series getting off to slow starts may receive a temporary stay of execution thanks to the Major League Baseball playoffs, which will frequently preempt prime time on those networks during October. Having baseball as competition should also provide the other networks an opportunity to get programs sampled by baseball-averse viewers.

New programs will continue to stagger out through October. ABC’s “Wasteland” and Fox’s “Harsh Realm” make their debut this week, with the WB’s “Roswell,” Fox’s “Ryan Caulfield: Year One” and “Time of Your Life,” the “Party of Five” spinoff starring Jennifer Love Hewitt, still to come.