Likely Leader for Japan Emerges; Obuchi in Coma

As Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi clung to life today, Yoshiro Mori, a 62-year-old stalwart of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, emerged as the man most likely to succeed him.

Obuchi lay comatose and tethered to a respirator after suffering a cerebral hemorrhage. Japanese officials acknowledged that it would be impossible for him to return to his post. Fearing a power vacuum, the LDP scrambled to agree on a successor.

This morning, one of Mori’s rivals for the prime minister’s job, Koichi Kato, threw his support behind Mori, virtually assuring that Mori will become Japan’s next prime minister, state-run NHK television reported.

Mori was a debate partner of Obuchi at prestigious Waseda University, where he also played rugby. Elected to parliament 10 times from his native Ishikawa prefecture, he already has held many of the nation’s top jobs, serving at various times as minister of education, trade and industry, and construction. He is now secretary-general of the LDP.

The Japanese Cabinet was expected to resign en masse within days, a move that also would remove Obuchi from office since his condition does not permit him to resign himself. Both houses of parliament would then convene to vote in a new prime minister. That vote would be largely symbolic, however, since parliament is dominated by the LDP and its ally, the New Komeito party.

It was widely expected that parliament would then be dissolved and early elections called.

Revelations of Obuchi’s critical condition came 17 hours after the nation’s top spokesman announced that the 62-year-old leader was hospitalized suffering from “overwork” and that no other details were available.

The spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki, acknowledged Monday that Obuchi had in fact slipped into a coma two hours before that announcement. Aoki said Obuchi told him to become caretaker prime minister if Obuchi was unable to fulfill his duties.

The lack of official candor angered some Japanese. News of Obuchi’s deteriorating condition worried others. Some economists and business leaders voiced concern about a leadership vacuum when the Japanese economy has yet to emerge from a decade-long slump.

“This is going to be quite serious, because the economy is very fragile,” said Keio University economist Haruo Shimada.

Premier’s Family by His Bedside

At the hospital, Obuchi was receiving medication to raise his low blood pressure and relieve the brain swelling that usually follows cerebral trauma. His second daughter, Yuko, returned from London this morning and was rushed to the hospital. Obuchi’s wife, Chizuko, also was by his side, according to Japanese television reports.

The prime minister was stricken Saturday night after a long week trying to cope with an alienated coalition partner and the eruptions of a Hokkaido volcano. He was brought to a Tokyo hospital at 1 a.m. Sunday and was diagnosed about 2 p.m. as having suffered a stroke and cerebral hemorrhage, Aoki said.

Aoki visited the prime minister at 7 p.m. Sunday and reported that Obuchi was calm and able to have a conversation. But about 9:50 p.m., the prime minister slipped into a coma and was placed on a respirator, Aoki said. About two hours later--22 hours after Obuchi was hospitalized--Aoki told reporters that the prime minister was suffering from “overwork” and fatigue.

It wasn’t until Monday morning that Aoki gave the first public indication of the gravity of the prime minster’s illness, reporting that Obuchi had suffered a stroke and that Aoki had assumed his boss’ duties in keeping with Japanese law. And it was not until 4 p.m. Monday that Aoki finally announced that the prime minister was in a coma.

Grilled by reporters, Aoki said he was waiting for more medical information before he informed the public. He said he understood the doubts caused by his handling of information about Obuchi’s condition.

While some Japanese were appalled by the brazen disinformation, many others said it is generally acceptable in Japanese society to conceal the illness of a key official, and politicians and publicly held corporations frequently do so.

A 57-year-old bank employee, Hisako Nagasaka, said that “the lack of transparency is frightening” but that she can understand why the government would have delayed announcing the bad news. “I don’t feel angry--they must have had a lot of reasons,” she said.

Still, to many Japanese, the incident gave fresh credence to the oft-repeated criticism that the Japanese government is poor at responding to crises. After the Kobe earthquake of 1995, rescue efforts were long delayed, and after the Tokaimura nuclear accident in September, residents were evacuated only belatedly.

“When Obuchi collapsed, they should have been positioned to appoint a stand-in immediately, but Japan was unprepared,” said Yashuhiro Ueda, a 39-year-old editor.

Political analyst Taro Yayama said the lack of a leader could have had serious implications for a nation that lives next door to North Korea, which has missiles. “If a Taepodong missile had come flying over during that 22-hour window, it could have been terrible,” he said.

Government dissembling about a leader’s health has a long tradition. In 1980, when Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira suffered what turned out to be a fatal heart attack, it was announced that he had “a transient irregular pulse caused by overwork.”

According to political analyst Hisayuki Miyake, “They put makeup on him before they let the news agencies take his photograph,” which showed Ohira sitting bolt upright in bed. He died 12 days later. Ohira also reportedly named his chief Cabinet secretary as acting prime minister with only the chief Cabinet secretary as witness.

In 1975, three years after leaving office, former Prime Minister Eisaku Sato suffered a stroke while having dinner with a businessman in a restaurant in Tokyo’s Tsukiji neighborhood.

Doctors feared that it would be too dangerous to move him. So the restaurant closed, and Sato remained there for four days. Sato even had a tracheotomy in the restaurant before being transferred to a hospital, where he ultimately died of a heart attack.

Political analyst Takayoshi Miyagawa said the latest incident is likely to prompt reflection and possibly legislation to establish a deputy prime minister post.

About 38 vital budget-related bills are pending in parliament and need a strong prime minister to shepherd them through, said independent political analyst Hiroshi Takaku.

Nikkei Average Up, Then Back Down

Despite Obuchi’s illness, the Nikkei stock average closed Monday at 20,726.99, up 389.67 points from Friday’s close, in the best finish since Dec. 10, 1996. But Shimada, the economics professor, said the gain was less an expression of Japanese sentiment than a monetary phenomenon caused by bullish foreign investors pouring oceans of dollars and euros into the Japanese equity market.

In early-morning trading today, the Nikkei retreated to 20,563.95, down 163.04 points.

While lawmakers limited their public comments to wishes for a speedy recovery for the genial Obuchi, a well-liked compromise-builder, Japanese television showed a parade of high-ranking LDP officials closeting themselves in meetings to discuss how to manage the situation.

Political cognoscenti in Nagatacho, Tokyo’s Capitol Hill, said the real decision on a successor would be made by two powerful figures, Aoki and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka.

In addition to Mori, Foreign Minister Yohei Kono, 63, also had been considered a leading candidate for prime minister, with Kato seen as a dark horse.

But by Monday afternoon, political analyst Miyagawa, author of a guide to who’s who in Japanese politics, was insisting that the hand-wringing was only for show.

“It’s already been decided that Mori will be the next prime minister, and the only reason they haven’t announced it is they haven’t decided who should [succeed Mori as] LDP secretary-general,” the ruling party’s No. 2 post, Miyagawa said.

Mori is credited with crafting legislation to shore up Japan’s ailing financial sector. But he has his detractors, who say he is indecisive. On the other hand, he also reportedly has fewer enemies than any of the other contenders.