Winds of Change Stirring Hope for a New Era in Syria

In the modern office of an economic consultant, in the dim cubicles of the Hafez Assad Library, at the Syrian Computer Society--all across this ancient, hidebound city--something new and vaguely daring is afoot.

Revolution would be far too strong a word. But change is in the air, a sense that Syria is standing at a threshold and the old certainties are starting to crumble. People are acting more freely, speaking more openly and critically, planning for a different kind of future.

The man who has led Syria for 30 years--the steely, cautious President Hafez Assad--is still in charge, as he demonstrated in a meeting with President Clinton last month when he again rejected any deal with Israel that returns less than 100% of the occupied Golan Heights. But increasingly, eyes are turned to the president’s 35-year-old son and heir apparent, Bashar Assad, who has begun to step with ever-greater confidence into the public eye.

From the outside, Syria often looks like a never-changing monolith. But from within, things are finally afoot: President Assad, apparently with input from his son, appointed a new government March 14 charged with liberalizing the economy. Writers who recently criticized the government’s stranglehold on opinion have been invited to publish again in the official media. Syria is stepping up its efforts to devise an association agreement with the European Union.

Peace Talks, Assad’s Tenure Are Key Issues

To be sure, all of this is taking place under the shadow of two great unknowns: the outcome of peace talks with Israel and the question of how much longer the president will remain in power. The gaunt Assad is 69 and rumored to be in poor health. After the failed summit with Clinton, peace talks with Israel remain stalled, and chances for an agreement this year have dimmed.

But absent peace with Israel and a change at the top, Assad seems to have approved economic changes as well as a cautious introduction of public debate.

“We’re not talking about democracy per se, but I as a person feel things are opening up,” observed one university professor. “People have more freedom of speech. If you read the newspapers, you are going to feel that the papers--all state-owned--have been given a green light to start publishing stories which before were under the carpet.”

Despite that freer atmosphere, the professor, like many in Syria, still felt it safer not to be named.

Change in Syria could have important implications for U.S. interests. The attitude of the leadership in Damascus not only affects the prospects of peace between Syria and Israel but is also paramount in determining the situation in Lebanon, which Syria, in effect, controls.

Syria also packs more than its weight in guiding the level of acceptance of Israel in the Arab world, and Syria’s influence could help the West resolve its long standoff with Iraq and build bridges with the Islamic government of Iran.

But such international questions are of less interest to Syrians than the hope that the next generation of leadership will address economic problems. The country is fairly well-endowed with resources--oil, water and farmland--and its people are known for their commercial acumen. Yet Syria has been plodding for decades, falling farther behind as the West and even most other Arab countries have raced ahead with technological advances and improved living standards. Syria’s exports, for instance, declined 20% in 1999.

Unless something changes radically and quickly, this country of 17 million people will be unable to compete in the global economy. Unemployment is rampant, industries are moribund and inefficient, and only now are Syrians beginning to dabble with such innovations as the mobile telephone, the Internet and even credit cards.

Many are pinning their hopes on the younger Assad to bring Syria into the future. “People in general look with some optimism to his coming to power because they believe he will do something to improve the standard of living,” said one dissident intellectual.

“Dr. Bashar,” as he is usually referred to, has groomed an image of being in favor of progress and technology. He has also spoken of the need for a younger, more up-to-date and cleaner style of government.

Since a 1994 automobile accident killed his older brother, Basil, the ophthalmologist and army colonel has been pulled back into the inner circle of Syrian politics. Bashar Assad has built personal connections to the business community and has used his position as the head of the Syrian Computer Society to establish a corps of experts and technocrats who presumably would assist him if he became president.

The process of grooming Bashar Assad has been slow. But in recent months he has begun granting occasional interviews, mainly to Arabic-language foreign publications; appeared at various economic forums; and accompanied Syrian delegations abroad. In public and private, he denies that a decision about a future office for him has been sealed.

“My ambition is to serve my country, not to be president,” the younger Assad told British journalist Patrick Seale in an interview last month. But he offered the opinion that Syria is badly in need of change, including a more modern administration and a crackdown on corruption.

Westerners Skeptical About Liberalization

Western observers based in Damascus, the capital, tend to be skeptical about some of the increased debate in the media, noting that the liberalization is being orchestrated from the top and in measured doses.

But it was at least a little startling when two Syrians who had courageously written articles for the London-based Al Hayat newspaper decrying restrictions on freedom of opinion were invited last month to begin writing again in the government-owned newspaper, Tishrin.

(One of the writers had quoted an old joke about three Arabs: An Egyptian, a Sudanese and a Syrian were asked their opinions about eating meat. “What’s meat?” asked the Egyptian. “What’s eating?” asked the Sudanese. “What’s an opinion?” asked the Syrian.)

Syrians have always been highly politicized. However, political activity in the country has been largely frozen since 1982, when the armed forces killed thousands of residents--as many as 20,000, some estimate--in the city of Hama. The Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni political organization, had led a rebellion against what it deemed the “infidel” regime headed by President Assad, a member of the minority Alawite sect. After the appalling lesson of Hama, few Syrians have dared to criticize Assad’s leadership.

The rigidity in public discourse was criticized by Hisham Dajani, a writer working in the state library. In an interview, Dajani said he is counting on a peace deal with Israel to be the catalyst for transforming this country.

“I expect many advantages” from an accord, he said. “It will bring a new generation of politicians, a new generation that believes in political and economic reform--and they really want to go faster to the market economy and give a larger margin of liberty to freedom of expression.”

According to Dajani, the younger generation that is eager for economic change and a closer alignment with the global economy includes the sons and grandsons of the old-guard leadership. Even among the old guard, many see the need for reform to bring about prosperity.

“Syria after the peace accord could not continue [being] closed up,” Dajani said. “If they really want great investments to push our ramshackle economy . . . they will have to have more-open policies.”

New Government Among Changes

The naming of a new government to replace the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Mahmoud Zubi, who had held the post since 1987, could well be the beginning of the changes that Dajani and like-minded intellectuals have been looking for in Syria.

Zubi’s successor is Mohammed Mustafa Miro, formerly mayor of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. Miro had won praise as a “Mr. Clean,” for rooting out corruption. Meanwhile, Bashar Assad let it be known that he had made several of the recommendations for the Cabinet.

“We have been waiting for something to happen since the president was reelected,” said Nabil Sukkar, an economic consultant in Damascus, referring to Hafez Assad’s February 1999 electoral victory in which he garnered the traditional 99% landslide. “There is a consensus within the government that there is a need for changes, and definitely there is a political will,” he said.

But any loosening in a society as controlled as Syria’s will probably be cautious.

In conversation, Syrian officials often mention the wrenching political and economic dislocations that Russia, their longtime ally and sponsor, experienced after it shed communism. They see this as an example to be avoided at all costs.

Ultimately, everything depends on how much the president is willing to risk to nudge the country out of its long sleep.

“Syrian society is moving a bit,” remarked a diplomat from his office near a medieval mosque. “But in this country, there is still only one man making decisions.”

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Daniszewski was recently on assignment in Syria.