Confident Bush Says Campaign Is on Track to Carry California

OXNARD — Gov. George W. Bush rolled into California for a two-day train tour Wednesday and vowed that he would carry “the biggest, most powerful state in the union” in the November election.

Speaking from the back of a shiny Amtrak train that will snake him north along the state’s Central Coast, Bush hoped to counter impressions that California is a sure win for Democrats. He told the crowd of about 5,000 that he would visit the state often in the weeks before the election. Wednesday marked Bush’s 14th campaign visit to California and his seventh since the state’s March 7 primary.

“Come November, you mark my words . . . California will be in the Bush-Cheney column,” he said as the crowd erupted in cheers from the railroad tracks below. “We can do it because we’ve got the right issues on our side. We’ve got the right ideas about the future of our country.”

The tour, which took the governor through Santa Barbara, Ventura and San Luis Obispo on Wednesday, will be highlighted today by the arrival of Arizona Sen. John McCain, who will join Bush for stops in Salinas, Stockton and Sacramento.

Karen Hughes, Bush communications director, said this week’s California tour would take the two Republicans to areas of swing and independent voters McCain targeted during the spring when he competed in the GOP primary against Bush.

“These are areas of swing and independent voters that we think Gov. Bush will be able to appeal to in November,” Hughes said before leaving Austin on Wednesday. “And Sen. McCain will help us to reach out to swing and independent voters.”

Democratic strategists called the train tour a head-fake, suggesting that Bush will not invest the significant time and money it would take to compete in such a large state. This week, the Republican National Committee broadcast a television ad attacking Vice President Al Gore in 17 states, but not California.

“They want two things,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who advises Gore. “They want to suck us into spending money [to defend California] and they want to do so without spending their own money. So they’re going to come here a lot.”

California has been friendly territory for Democrats in the last decade. It is also considered a must-win state for a national Democratic candidate because of Republican strengths elsewhere.

Recent polls, however, suggest Gore has not sealed a victory in California. One survey released today found Gore with a narrow lead among the state’s likely voters (40% to 37%). The poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, an independent think tank based in San Francisco, was taken during a one-week period that covered last week’s Republican National Convention, which may have inflated Bush’s support.

“By going into the Los Angeles media market today, we are obviously saying that we think California is a state we can win,” said Hughes, referring to the Ventura County stop. “We don’t want the Democrats to have free rein with the publicity for their convention. We intend to remind the voters of California that we have a better candidate.”

Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst in Washington, said, however, that he suspects Bush knows California is a longshot and he is trying to keep his options open.

“I have no doubt they want to convey the impression that they’re going to play in California,” Rothenberg said. “But it’s hard to believe they’ll really play in California in a big way.”

Bush was introduced Wednesday at the Oxnard Amtrak station by Larry Lavagnino, a Santa Maria city councilman who said he fears having to sell his family’s farmland to cover an estimated $335,000 in estate taxes when his 93-year-old mother dies. The 80-acre farm has been in Lavagnino’s family since 1892.

“This is not fair in America!” Lavagnino, 64, shouted at the cheering, flag-waving crowd. “I’m here to support the man who wants to change all that and eliminate the death tax!”

Bush and his wife, Laura, stepped on to the train’s rear platform as the Beach Boys crooned over loudspeakers and more than a dozen white doves were released over the crowd. The governor sprinkled his speech with Spanish phrases and saluted a small group of Boy Scouts angling for a photo.

Earlier, Bush said he was excited about the trip, particularly about campaigning with McCain, and reiterated his intention to “change the tone” in the White House.

“This race is going to be about who’s best to change the attitude in Washington,” he said. “Clinton-Gore had their chance to lead. They didn’t do it. We will.”

In St. Louis on Wednesday, Bush’s running mate, Dick Cheney, kicked off a three-day tour of Midwestern battleground states. His first stop at Sunshine Ministries, a homeless shelter and drug rehabilitation program, was chosen to underscore the GOP ticket’s plan to provide federal funding to faith-based charities.

“Gov. Bush and I believe that faith-based groups, whether Mormon or Methodist or Muslim, ought to be eligible for public money to advance their good works,” Cheney said after meeting a group of children at the center.

The Gore campaign seized on the event to revive questions about Cheney’s conservative record as a Wyoming congressman in the 1980s, citing votes he cast against funding for homeless programs.

“While it’s good to hear that Dick Cheney is now reaching out to the less fortunate, it’s a shame that his record in Congress does not reflect that concern,” said Ron Klain, a senior advisor to the Gore campaign. “His extreme record shows that, time and time again, Cheney voted against helping the homeless and voted for helping the few and the well-connected.”

Bush campaign spokesman Dan Bartlett said the context of Cheney’s 1987 and 1988 votes on homeless funding was an effort by Republicans “to put our federal finances in order.”

“The attempts by the Al Gore campaign to distort and mislead voters about the Bush-Cheney ticket shows the lengths they will go to tear Gov. Bush down,” Bartlett said.

*

Times staff writer Michael Finnegan in St. Louis contributed to this story.