Gore Still Lags on Leadership Issue

Despite growing public optimism about the nation’s direction, Al Gore heads toward the Democratic National Convention burdened by voter doubts about his leadership and widespread skepticism that he deserves credit for the strong economy, a new Times Poll has found.

The poll suggests that, at this point in the campaign, personal doubts about both Gore and President Clinton are outweighing the traditional tendency of voters to reward the party in the White House for good times. Only half of voters who believe the country is on the right track now say they will vote for Gore--a much smaller percentage of satisfied voters than usually supports the party holding the White House.

In all, the poll found Republican nominee George W. Bush leading Gore by 48% to 39%, with Green Party nominee Ralph Nader (at 3%) and Reform Party contender Pat Buchanan (at 2%) attracting minimal support. Bush’s lead nearly doubles the five-point advantage he held in a Times Poll just before the GOP convention earlier this month.

The survey highlights the complex challenges facing Gore at the Democratic convention this week. At once, Gore must find a way to improve his personal image (which is less favorable than Bush’s, the poll found), unify Democrats (who are now supporting him at a lower rate than Republicans are backing Bush), and reach out to independents (who now prefer Bush by a double-digit margin). Perhaps above all, Gore must find a solution to this year’s paradox of prosperity: the willingness of many Americans content with the country’s direction to vote for change by supporting Bush.

The Times Poll, supervised by poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,227 registered voters from Friday through Sunday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The survey also asked a series of questions that attempted to determine which voters were most likely to turn out in November; in that smaller group of “likely” voters, Bush’s lead expanded slightly to 52% to 40%, with Nader (at 2%) and Buchanan (at 1%) almost vanishing.

Bush’s strong showing may at least partially reflect the continued benefit of the “bounce” he received at the Republican Convention in Philadelphia this month. As that effect recedes, Gore is hoping to gain substantial ground this week with the traditional bounce from his convention.

Voters expressed a generally positive response to Gore’s selection of moderate Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut as his running mate, though the choice didn’t yet seem to be changing the dynamics of the election. Nearly three-fifths of those surveyed thought Lieberman was qualified to serve as president and about half said they had a favorable impression of him; both numbers were comparable to those that voters expressed about Dick Cheney after Bush selected him as his running mate last month.

But only 15% of those polled said Lieberman’s selection made them more likely to support Gore; nearly 8 in 10 said the choice would have no effect. Lieberman’s religion--he is the first Jewish candidate chosen for a national ticket--seemed a nonissue to most respondents: Nearly 8 in 10 said the country was ready for a Jewish vice president.

Bush Holding the Center Better

Democrats point out that at the Republican convention in 1988, Bush’s father, former President George Bush, faced--and met--many of the same challenges confronting Gore. After trailing his rival for most of that campaign year, the elder Bush used his convention to resolve doubts about his leadership and surge into a lead over Democrat Michael S. Dukakis that he never relinquished.

But even with that precedent, the breadth of the difficulties facing Gore on convention eve are still formidable, the poll found.

Most fundamental, Gore is facing an erosion of the electoral coalition that Clinton built in his two victories. Following the pattern in most surveys this year, the new poll shows Bush demonstrating broad-based appeal. At this point, the Texas governor is holding the center, even as he consolidates the Republican base to an extraordinary degree and cuts into Gore’s strength among groups that usually lean Democratic.

Those advantages are evident from several different angles. At the most basic level, Bush has done a much better job of unifying his base than Gore: In the survey, an almost unprecedented 95% of Republicans say they are backing Bush. Just 78% of Democrats now say they will vote for Gore. Bush is attracting 18% of Democratic men--and more than one-fourth of white Democratic men.

Bush also holds a 16 percentage-point lead among independents. He holds a large lead among independents who consider themselves conservative, and is holding Gore to a relatively modest 11 percentage-point advantage among independents who consider themselves liberal or moderate.

Those numbers highlight a central dynamic in the survey: Bush is consistently running better among groups that ordinarily lean Republican (like conservative independents) than Gore is among groups that more typically lean Democratic (like moderate independents).

Bush, for instance, leads Gore by 52% to 37% among men overall--and by fully 2 to 1 among white men. But Gore has been unable to offset that advantage by posting the lead among women that Clinton enjoyed in his two races. The survey finds Bush leading among female voters by 44% to 41%.

When voters are viewed by income, the same disparity occurs. Bush leads by 20 percentage points among voters earning $60,000 a year or more--but Gore only manages a five-point advantage among those earning $20,000 a year or less.

Most ominously for Gore, Bush continues to display considerable strength among union members. Bush is drawing 33% of union members, compared to just 53% for Gore. Clinton carried union members by a 33-point plurality in 1996, according to The Times exit poll.

The second set of challenges for Gore that the poll pinpoints are personal. In the broadest measure, voters are less likely to express favorable opinions about Gore than they are about Bush. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed say they view Gore favorably, while 40% view him unfavorably; for Bush, the comparable numbers are 59% and 33%.

Gore holds a clear lead on two variables: by 56% to 31% voters say he has “the best experience for the job.” And a 13 percentage-point plurality believes Gore has a better grasp of the issues than Bush.

‘Likable’ Factor a Big Plus for Bush

But voters prefer Bush on three other central measures. Bush leads by six percentage points among voters overall (and twice that among independents) when voters are asked which man has the honesty and integrity to serve as president; Bush leads by 17 percentage points when voters were asked which candidate was most likable; and Bush leads by 13 points on the question of which candidate displays stronger qualities of leadership. The perception of Bush as a stronger leader has been one of the most consistent--and consequential--dynamics of the election all More promising for Gore is the issue debate that Democrats hope to sharpen at the convention this week. The survey finds little public support for shifting away from the direction that President Clinton has established. Just 1 in 5 voters say the next president should change a lot of Clinton’s policies; about one-third say “only a few” policies should be changed; and a plurality of nearly 40% say the next president should continue Clinton’s policies.

In another question, fully 58% of voters said they like Clinton’s policies--almost exactly the same percentage (59%) that said they dislike Clinton personally.

On two central policy disputes voters side strongly with Gore as well. By a resounding 5 to 1, voters say the federal budget surplus should be used primarily to pay down the national debt and stabilize Social Security and Medicare (as Gore is urging) rather than primarily for a large tax cut, as Bush has proposed. And when read a description of the two rivals’ competing plans to reform Social Security, 55% say they prefer Gore’s approach; just 32% like Bush’s.

Yet, perhaps in a reflection of the broader doubts about Gore’s strength and leadership, the vice president doesn’t match those advantages when voters are asked which candidate can best handle a series of issues.

Difficulty in Gaining Credit

Voters gave Gore a double-digit advantage over Bush on only one issue: health care. Likewise, Bush held a significant advantage solely on national defense--where voters preferred him over Gore by nearly 3 to 1.

The two men essentially battled to a draw on four other issues: abortion, gun control, Supreme Court appointments and, most strikingly, education. (Bush actually holds a statistically insignificant 42% to 40% lead on education, an issue that usually favors Democrats.)

The good news for Gore is that he leads Bush on two other critical issues: strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and keeping the economy prosperous. The bad news is that Gore’s leads on these questions are modest.

Gore’s slim lead on sustaining prosperity reflects his difficulty in gaining credit for the strong economy. There’s little dispute that the economy is humming: Fully 89% of voters say it’s doing well. But that appreciation hasn’t trickled down to Gore. A plurality (49%) now say Gore deserves no credit for the good times; just 9% say he deserves a lot. Another 34% say he deserves some credit.

That assessment may help explain why Gore continues to struggle despite a rising tide of optimism about the country’s direction. In the survey, 56% of voters say the country is moving in the right direction, while only 36% say it’s off on the wrong track. That finding continues a steady rise in optimism in Times polls since last spring.

But that updraft isn’t helping Gore as much as it should because he’s failing to attract as many satisfied voters as the incumbent party usually does. Typically, the party holding the White House can expect to win as much as three-quarters of voters who say the country is on the right track; in this poll, those contented voters give Gore only a 51% to 37% lead over Bush.

While Gore struggles to grasp onto the most positive elements of Clinton’s legacy, the strong economy and general sense of contentment with the country’s direction he continues to bear the weight of the negative assessments. When those who have an unfavorable view of Gore were asked why, far more named Clinton than any other factor.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Health Care

Democrats will showcase health care issues at tonight’s convention. Panelists in a forum called “American Dialogues” will share their experiences and expertise on issues including AIDS and mental health. Here are the presidential candidates’ positions on the issue.

*

DEMOCRATS

Mental Health

Vice President Al Gore supports expanding access to mental health benefits. A major goal is to assure affordable mental health coverage for children so that mental illness is covered in the same way physical illnesses are covered.

Gore would expand the availability of community mental health services while requiring accountability. He also would provide more mental health services to under-served groups such as homeless veterans, and create return-to-work programs for the mentally ill.

Gore wants to train teachers and general health professionals to help spot symptoms of mental illness and strengthen medical privacy rules to protect against discrimination.

*

AIDS

Gore supports continued investment in research, prevention, care, treatment and finding a vaccine and cure for AIDS. He supports the Ryan White CARE Act, which provides federal assistance to state and local jurisdictions most heavily affected by HIV. He also supports the Housing Opportunities for People with AIDS program and incentives to return those with HIV/AIDS to work.

Gore seeks to protect persons with HIV/AIDS

from discrimination and agrees with a

Supreme Court decision that the

Americans With Disabilities Act

covers people with asymptomatic HIV.

REPUBLICANS

Mental Health

While the George W. Bush campaign has not formulated specific positions on AIDs and mental health, his advisors pointed to his record as governor of Texas, where he signed a 1997 law mandating health insurance plans that offers 45 inpatient days and 60 outpatient visits for serious mental illnesses. During his tenure, funds were appropriated for a new generation of medicines for people with bipolar illnesses and schizophrenia.

Bush supports the Americans With Disabilities Act and has supported job training, supportive housing and other health services for the mentally ill.

*

AIDS

The governor supports pharmaceutical companies’ research and development of AIDS drugs. As part of that support, he proposes a permanent tax credit for research and development.

Bush would double funding of the National Institutes of Health and supports the NIH AIDS research programs and the Ryan White CARE Act.

Sources: Times research; Candidates’ campaigns

Researched by NONA YATES/Los Angeles Times

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Gore vs. Bush

Presidential matchup

*

Among all registered voters:

George W. Bush: 48%

Al Gore: 39%

Pat Buchanan: 2%

Ralph Nader: 3%

Don’t know: 8%

*

Among likely voters:

George W. Bush: 52%

Al Gore: 40%

Pat Buchanan: 1%

Ralph Nader: 2%

Don’t know: 5%

*

Does Al Gore’s selection of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman to be his vice presidential running mate make you more or less likely to vote for Gore or does it have no effect on your vote?

*--*

All registered voters Democrats Republicans

Much more likely 6% 7% 4%

Somewhat more likely 9% 8% 7%

Somewhat less likely 3% 1% 1%

Much less likely 3% 1% 2%

No effect 78% 81% 86%

Don’t know 1% 2% 0%

*--*

*

Regardless of whether Lieberman’s religion would affect your own vote, do you think his selection as Gore’s vice presidential running mate will help Gore’s chances of winning, hurt his chances of winning or have no effect on the presidential race?

Help: 36%

Hurt: 11%

No effect: 38%

Don’t know: 15%

*

Do you think that Lieberman is qualified to step in and become the president of the United States, or not?

Qualified: 58%

Not qualified:9%

Don’t know: 33%

*

Do you think that this country is ready to have someone Jewish serve as vice president, or not?

Ready: 78%

Not ready: 8%

Don’t know: 14%

*

Do you think that anti-Semitism in the United States is currently a very serious problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a problem or not a problem at all?

Serious problem: 17%

Somewhat of a problem: 46%

Not much of a problem: 22%

Not a problem at all: 6%

Don’t know: 9%

*

What is your impression of

*--*

Joseph I. Lieberman Dick Cheney Al Gore George W. Bush Favorable 50% 52% 54% 59% Unfavorable 8 16 40 33 Haven’t heard enough to say 38 29 4 5 Don’t know 4 3 2 3

*--*

*

Top 3 reasons given by voters who have a favorable impression of Al Gore: (accepted up to two answers)

Experience: 21%

He’s a good Democrat: 15

His stand on issues: 13

*

Top 3 reasons given by voters who have an unfavorable impression of Al Gore: (accepted up to two answers)

Clinton association: 29%

Not trustworthy: 18

Flip-flops on issues: 13

*

Top 3 reasons given by voters who have a favorable impression of George W. Bush: (accepted up to two answers)

His record in Texas: 14%

His stand on issues: 14

Trustworthy: 13

*

Top 3 reasons given by voters who have an unfavorable impression of George W. Bush: (accepted up to two answers)

His stand on issues: 13%

Not trustworthy: 11

His father’s legacy: 11

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What issue or problem is most important for the next president to address?(accepted up to two answers) (top 3 responses shown):

Education: 25%

Social Security: 19

Health care: 16

*

At the Republican convention, there was talk of a new Republican Party, one that welcomes people of all races, colors and beliefs. Do you believe that the Republican Party has changed and that there is a new more inclusive Republican Party, or do you think the talk at the convention was just politics as usual, with the candidates trying to get elected?

New inclusive party: 27%

Politics as usual: 63

Don’t know: 10

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Notes: All results shown are among registered voters, unless otherwise indicated.

“-” indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or not all answer categories are shown.

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Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,227 registered voters nationwide, including 728 voters most likely to vote, by telephone Aug. 11--13, 2000. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Gore vs. Bush,

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