IN PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

1. WISCONSIN

Coach: Barry Alvarez, 11th season

1999 record: 10-2, 7-1

Case for: Throw the ball at your own peril when Jamar Fletcher is on the field. He might be the country’s best cover cornerback and has run back five interceptions for touchdowns, a Big Ten record. And, if linebackers Bryson Thompson and Nick Greisen can step into big shoes (Thompson’s belonged to his brother Donnell), the defense is solid. No, make that spectacular.

Case against: Saying a team might be better without Dayne might be a reach, but the Badgers should be more fun to watch. At least Bollinger will have more to do than just hand the ball off, which he did often. Wisconsin ran for 3,305 yards, passed for only 1,701 last season. But lest you think Bollinger is going to have carte blanche, know that the Badgers will still be a running/option team, just with new faces and the Heisman a memory.

If it all breaks right: Wisconsin beats Michigan for only the second time in Ann Arbor since 1962, then somehow gets past Ohio State the next week, skips the Rose Bowl and goes on to Miami, where bigger things await.

2. MICHIGAN

Coach: Lloyd Carr, 6th season

1999 record: 9-2, 6-2

Case for: OK, Drew Henson has the arm for the out pattern. It’s just a third-to-first throw, and Henson made plenty of those this season with double-A Norwich and, after he was traded by the Yankees to Cincinnati, Chattanooga. And Henson can operate behind an offensive line that includes probable first-round NFL picks in Steve Hutchinson, Maurice Williams and Jeff Backus; hand to Anthony Thomas, the best returning running back in the Big Ten; and throw to wideout David Terrell, who is almost as good as he says he is, and he says, “I can do everything.”

Case against: Three of the four starters in the defensive secondary are back, a good-news-bad-news situation. James Whitley, Todd Howard and DeWayne Patmon have experience, but they were called “The Suspects.” The caller? Coach Lloyd Carr, and the 2,546 passing yards the Wolverines gave up last season is Exhibit A for anybody’s offense.

If it all breaks right: Michigan uses its Big House advantage to win the Big Ten showdown against Wisconsin on Sept. 30, then doesn’t let down the next week at Purdue.

3. PENN STATE

Coach: Joe Paterno, 35th season

1999 record: 10-3, 5-3

Case for: Paterno needs only seven victories to catch Bear Bryant as the winningest coach in Division I history, and you have to figure there are more than seven wins in the Nittany Lion schedule. You also have to figure there is a 31st bowl game for him too, because bowl time is when Paterno is at his best. No, not just because he has won 20. It’s because it offers a whole new group of reporters to hear his stories.

Case against: It’s the one being prosecuted by the Hoboken, N.J., police against quarterback Rashard Casey for his May 14 arrest on charges of joining two friends in beating an off-duty cop unconscious. Casey says the charges are “nonsense” but can’t say anything else because Penn State officials are limiting reporters’ questions of him to “football and related matters.”

If it all breaks right: Penn State replaces nine defensive starters and adapts to the scheme of Tom Bradley, who replaced Jerry Sandusky. Not that it will be all that different. Bradley has coached the secondary for 22 years under Sandusky, who retired after 32 years as defensive coordinator.

4. OHIO STATE

Coach: John Cooper, 13th season

1999 record: 6-6, 3-5

Case for: Ken Yon Rambo, once a troubled freshman from Long Beach, now is a mature senior looking for leadership responsibility and ways to show he is the real deal at wideout. He has even spent the last couple of weeks campaigning to be the Buckeyes’ captain, a lousy job if their chemistry is no better than last season. But a captaincy won’t get him more touchdown passes than the six he caught last season. It’s something new offensive coordinator Chuck Stobart is there to do.

Case against: Quarterback Steve Bellisari spent last season’s first two games playing behind Austin Moherman, then ran Moherman out of town. But Bellisari, now a junior, completed only 45.1% of his passes, lowest for a Buckeye starting quarterback since 1973. And he was only a combined 14 of 37 in defeats by Penn State and Michigan State.

If it all breaks right: Bellisari runs the new offense well enough to keep Ohio State from being beaten, well enough to save Cooper’s job (he is the Big Ten coach on the hottest seat after a breakeven, no-bowl season) and well enough to beat Michigan.

5. ILLINOIS

Coach: Ron Turner, fourth season

1999 record: 8-4, 4-4

Case for: Turner’s teams score in carload lots, but going 0-11 and 3-8 in his first two seasons didn’t exactly bring the throng back to Champaign. Last season’s 8-4 record did, in large part because it was accomplished with the highest-scoring offense in school history. A 63-21 rout of Virginia in the Micronpc.com Bowl, whatever that is, has helped generate a 60% increase in season ticket sales. Suddenly, there is a home-field advantage, helpful because Illinois hosts Michigan and Ohio State.

Case against: The Illini is going to have to outscore folks, because the Illinois defense is going to struggle to stop anybody. New cornerbacks Eugene Wilson, Trayvon Waller and Anthony Hurd are going to have to get help from a pass rush that depends on the blitz.

If it all breaks right: Quarterback Kurt Kittner doesn’t learn to throw interceptions (he threw only five, against 24 touchdown passes last season), and the Illini plays Michigan and Ohio State as well at home as it did on the road. Last season, Illinois beat both away from home, the first time a Big Ten team has accomplished that feat since 1951.

6. PURDUE

Coach: Joe Tiller, fourth season

1999 record: 7-5, 4-4

Case for: Once on a short-passing leash held by Tiller and his pass-first, run-if-you-have-to attack, Drew Brees has slipped the leash enough to throw for 8,124 yards and 64 touchdowns, and folks around West Lafayette, Ind., held their collective breaths last spring until he told them that the NFL could wait another year for him. The question now is if the Heisman Trophy folks are will send him onto the NFL with their trinket.

Case against: The defense gave up 25 points per game last season, which oddly enough was what the Boilermaker offense scored in the Outback Bowl, running up a 25-0 lead over Georgia. Then came the greatest meltdown in Division I bowl history, and the Bulldogs punched gaping holes in the Boilers en route to a 28-25 win. The Purdue’s defense looks even weaker, with only one returning linebacker, one returning back.

If it all breaks right: Brees gets enough support from Montrell Lowe to keep defenses more honest than the eight- and nine-back sets he faced a year ago. And Purdue isn’t crushed by Notre Dame and Penn State on the road in September.

7. MICHIGAN STATE

Coach: Bobby Williams, first year

1999 record: 10-2, 6-2

Case for: T.J. Duckett was the winner of the Ron Dayne eat-alike contest a year ago when he blew up to 275-plus pounds, a lot of it on room service hamburgers at the Citrus Bowl. Since then Duckett, a converted linebacker, has slimmed down to 251 pounds and has run a 4.4 40, establishing himself as the fastest big man in the land. He also figures to give Michigan’s Anthony Thomas a run for the best back in the Big Ten. Duckett’s chief backup is a wonderfully misnamed 220-pounder, Little John Flowers

Case against: Nick Saban sized up the situation in East Lansing and lit out for Baton Rouge, where he takes on the daunting--though lucrative--task of coaching at LSU. He left Duckett for Williams, but also left an inexperience quarterback in Ryan Van Dyke and a Plaxico Burress-less group of receivers.

If it all breaks right: Duckett doesn’t find that Domino’s phone number, and the Spartans make so much hay in the first five games that their last six--against Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and Penn State--don’t keep them out of a bowl game.

8. INDIANA

Coach: Cam Cameron, fourth season

1999 record: 4-7, 3-5

Case for: Quarterback Antwaan Randle El, a junior, reached 3,000 passing yards and 1,500 running yards faster than any player in NCAA history (19 games) and was the first Big Ten player to reach 5,000 yards of total offense as a sophomore. He spent some of his freshman year playing basketball for Bob Knight, some of last spring playing played baseball for the Hoosiers. What’s left? Well, there’s winning, something that hasn’t happened at Indiana in quite a while. And has never happened under Cameron.

Case against: Indiana gave up 35.1 points a game last season, which is a lot to ask Randle El to overcome. The defense has a new coordinator (James Bell, hired from Wake Forest), and Indiana moved some athletes from offense to help Bell out. His fond hope is for free safety Greg Yeldell to return to the form he exhibited two seasons ago, when he intercepted five passes.

If it all breaks right: Randle El doesn’t get killed behind a green offensive line and receivers catch the balls he throws their way for a change. And the Hoosiers start fast--very fast.

9. MINNESOTA

Coach: Glen Mason, fourth season.

1999 record: 8-4, 5-3

Case for: When defensive end Karon Riley lay facedown and still on the grass after a hit during practice Aug. 16, Minnesotans held their collective breaths. The Gophers’ defense is built around Riley’s pass rush, which makes him the defensive backs’ best friend. It also earned him a league-leading 16 sacks last season, and that helped Minnesota’s defense hold the opposition to a 46.7% completion ratio.

Case against: Minnesota’s smash-mouth offense would be right at home in the Big Ten--if it was still 1972. The Gophers broke some offensive records last season, but have lost quarterback Billy Cockerham and tailback Thomas Hamner. In their places are freshman quarterback Asad Abdul-Khaliq and freshman back Thomas Tapeh. The line is strong. Let the mouth smashing begin!

If it all breaks right: The Gophers dispense with Louisiana Monroe, Ohio University and Baylor, no great chore, and Abdul-Khaliq doesn’t self-distruct en route. Wins over those three, plus Northwestern and Iowa mean only one more victory is needed for a bowl game.

10. IOWA

Coach: Kirk Ferentz, second season

1999 record: 1-10, 0-8

Case for: Nobody will talk about why Khalil Hill was suspended all last season, but everybody’s talking about his being back to return kicks and catch passes from Scott Mullen. Hill was the Hawkeyes’ leading receiver as a freshman and ran back two punts for touchdowns two seasons ago. He offers Iowa a deep threat they didn’t have last season. That could help Ladell Betts, who gained 857 of the 1,028 rushing yards a year ago.

Case against: There are several, but the best can be made for an offensive line that gave up 29 sacks last season. Iowa was 97th on offense, averaging 300.3 yards a game; 105th in scoring offense, at 14.1 points a team. A defense that earned only 18 sacks; that was beaten on the final play three times and that gave up 23 rushes and 42 passes of more than 20 yards last season has to play better.

If it all breaks right: Iowa merely survives what is one of the nation’s toughest schedules, featuring nonconference games against Nebraska, Kansas State and Iowa State, and manages to beat Northwestern at Iowa City on Nov. 11.

11. NORTHWESTERN

Coach: Randy Walker, second season

1999 record: 3-8, 1-7

Case for: Damien Anderson ran for 1,128 yards last season on a team that had (1) no passing attack to speak of and (2) not much of an offensive line. Four of those linemen are back, bloodied but unbowed, and they might get some help from a no-huddle, spread offense that Walker has installed. Anderson also figures to get relief from quarterback Zak Kustok, who can’t be as bad as he looked last season. Kustok threw twice as many interceptions (six) as touchdown passes.

Case against: So 10 defensive starters are back. But they are the same starters who were outscored, 100-10, in the last three games of last season. The same starters that gave up more than 4,000 yards. The same starters who intercepted only seven passes all season. Kevin Bentley led the Big Ten with 13.5 tackles a game last season, but he has to get some help for the Wildcats to stop anybody.

If it all breaks right: The Wildcats aren’t embarrassed with losses to Northern Illinois and/or Duke in their first two games.

Look Who’s Back

1999 standings and returning starters:

*--*

Conf. Overall Starters W L W L Offense Defense Wisconsin 7 1 10 2 8 return 8 return Michigan St. 6 2 10 2 5 return 6 return Michigan 6 2 10 2 7 return 5 return Penn State 5 3 10 3 7 return 2 return Minnesota 5 3 8 4 4 return 8 return Illinois 4 4 8 4 9 return 4 return Purdue 4 4 7 5 8 return 5 return Ohio State 3 5 6 6 6 return 7 return Indiana 3 5 4 7 8 return 9 return Northwestern 1 7 3 8 7 return 9 return Iowa 0 8 1 10 7 return 6 return

*--*

RETURNING CONFERENCE LEADERS

RUSHING

Anthony Thomas, Michigan

TCB: 283

NYG: 1,257

Avg.: 4.4

TD: 16

Damien Anderson, Northwestern

TCB: 305

NYG: 1,128

Avg.: 3.7

TD: 3

Ladell Betts, Iowa

TCB: 189

NYG: 857

Avg.: 4.5

TD: 5

Levron Williams, Indiana

TCB: 118

NYG: 817

Avg.: 6.9

TD: 4

Antwaan Randle El, Indiana

TCB: 224

NYG: 788

Avg.: 3.5

TD: 13

PASSING

Drew Brees, Purdue

Att: 494

Comp: 301

Yds: 3,531

Int: 11

TD: 21

Kurt Kittner, Illinois

Att: 396

Comp: 216

Yds: 2,702

Int: 5

TD: 24

Antwaan Randle El, Indiana

Att: 279

Comp: 150

Yds: 2,277

Int: 7

TD: 17

Steve Bellisari, Ohio State

Att: 224

Comp: 101

Yds: 1,616

Int: 9

TD: 12

Scott Mullen, Iowa

Att: 226

Comp: 126

Yds: 1,415

Int: 7

TD: 5

RECEIVING

David Terrell, Michigan State

REC: 61

YDS: 888

TD: 4

Ken-Yon Rambo, Ohio State

REC: 41

YDS: 833

TD: 6

Edward Drummond, Penn State

REC: 36

YDS: 697

TD: 6

Kevin Kasper, Iowa

REC: 60

YDS: 664

TD: 3

Reggie Germany, Ohio State

REC: 43

YDS: 656

TD: 1