North Korea Sees Role for U.S. Troops

In the past few weeks, North Korea has reportedly abandoned its opposition to American “imperialism” and now “welcomes” American soldiers on Korean soil. The United States should seize this opportunity to lay the basis for the permanent stationing of large American ground forces in Korea after unification.

Historically, North Korea has always called for the expulsion of the 37,000 service personnel who serve in South Korea. This month, however, it seems that the North has made an about-face and that country’s dictator, Kim Jong Il, now welcomes the deployment of American armed forces in Korea.

These reports must be taken with a grain of salt. In July, Kim played a practical joke on his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin. Kim told Putin that North Korea would give up its ballistic missiles if another country were willing to launch North Korean satellites. The Russian, seeking to bolster his credentials as a peacemaker, told the entire world about it, only to have his balloon deflated by Kim this month when he mentioned to journalists from the South that he was not really serious about it.

This being said, it may be true that North Korea is serious about abandoning its long-standing opposition to having American soldiers on the peninsula. How could this be possible?

The U.S. Army and Air Force units in Korea once were an obstacle to North Korea’s plans to unify the peninsula through invasion of the South. But today, North Korea cannot even dream of waging a successful attack on the South because its military is far too decrepit and the North will not get any Russian or Chinese help. What the North can aspire to is to avoid a quick merger with the South, which would result in the absorption of Kim’s country by the richer and more populated South.

What Pyongyang needs is detente, so that the South and its rich allies provide assistance to the North in exchange for minor concessions that do not put the regime’s survival at risk. In the longer run, Kim may hope for some sort of loose confederation where he and his clique retain power in the North.

The United States is not a threat to Kim’s detente policy. Regardless of Washington’s preferences, if South Korea wants to engage the North with aid, the United States will not impede Seoul’s policies and is even likely to go along with them.

Other countries, however, may be viewed as a threat by the North. China, to whom Korea was formally a tributary state for centuries, may have ambitions on the peninsula, especially on the North. The history of Chinese aggression against communist neighbors (the Soviet Union and Vietnam) is surely well known to the North Koreans. In addition, China could at one point sacrifice North Korea’s interests for the sake of its relations with the South or some other country.

Russia is weak but is unstable and unpredictable and thus potentially dangerous. Japan, Korea’s former colonial power, is still suspect in many Koreans’ eyes.

The rivalries that beset relations among China, Russia and Japan could focus on influence over Korea and leave the peninsula at the mercy of the ambitions of the larger powers that surround it. As the weakest nation in Northeast Asia, North Korea is particularly vulnerable to any conflict in the region.

Compared to the regional powers, the United States is a benign power. It harbors no territorial designs, and its location and military strength allow it to deter all potential competitors for influence on the peninsula. Thus, North Korea is more likely to be able to survive if the Americans stay in Korea because Washington can keep the peace in the region and will not seek to undermine inter-Korean reconciliation.

The U.S. should take advantage of North Korea’s reported change of heart. As the perception of the North Korean threat diminishes in Seoul--and Washington--there will be growing pressure to trim, or even remove, U.S. forces from Korea. This would be catastrophic for the U.S. position in Asia and for the countries in the region because the U.S. military deployment in Asia is the linchpin of regional stability and prosperity. Getting North Korea’s “blessing” for the U.S. forces would undermine the arguments of the South Korean opponents of U.S. forces. It would also bring about the transformation of the rationale for the U.S. presence--from deterrence of the North to regional stability. Thus, when North Korea collapses, which is quite possible in the coming decade, it will be far easier to keep American soldiers in a unified Korea.