‘Millionaire’ Shows Its Age as ABC’s Ratings Lead Falters

ABC looks very much like a mere mortal television network again--and its once-invincible champion, Regis Philbin, at best a demigod--if the down-to-the-wire vote tally from the November rating sweeps is any indication.

In an outcome few would have predicted even a few months ago, ABC eked out a prime-time victory over NBC for the four-week viewing survey that officially concluded Wednesday by a Gore-Bush-type margin. That’s an upset, given that Philbin and “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” carried ABC to lopsided prime-time ratings wins for every sweeps battle--in May, February and last November--conducted since the quiz show made its debut in August 1999, seemingly becoming the network’s final answer to all its ratings needs.

With ABC’s average audience down 8% compared with a year ago--to roughly 14 million viewers, as estimated by Nielsen Media Research, about 100,000 ahead of NBC’s total during any given minute in prime time--network officials somewhat testily denied that they had put too many eggs in “Millionaire’s” basket.

“If the question is, ‘Do we think it’s on too much right now?’ the answer is, ‘No, we don’t,’ ” Lloyd Braun, co-chairman of the ABC Entertainment Television Group, told reporters earlier this week.

Still, ABC is clearly more reliant on “Millionaire,” which expanded to four editions per week this fall. Though the assumption was the franchise had to spiral downward sooner or later, the descent has come faster than most observers could have anticipated.

Moreover, the program is losing younger viewers at a faster clip than its older audience, allowing NBC to claim a commanding victory among adults age 18 to 49, the demographic primarily used as currency when selling advertising time. As a sign of that aging process, ABC’s median viewer age this season--meaning an equal number of people above and below that line are tuning in--has risen to 46, from under 42 over the corresponding period a year ago. (CBS remains the oldest-skewing network, with a median age of 52, compared with 45 and 39 for NBC and Fox, respectively.)

Braun pointed out that “Millionaire” remains enormously profitable, but if the gravy train slows appreciably more, ABC needs to start planting seeds for the future soon. So far, the network’s four new programs--including “The Geena Davis Show” and medical drama “Gideon’s Crossing”--have yielded a disappointing ratings harvest, despite the hope introducing fewer shows this fall would give them a better opportunity to succeed.

CBS also found itself with little to crow about in terms of the sweeps. Although the network’s ratings success over the summer with “Survivor” helped launch its crop of new shows, including the surprise hits “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation” and “Yes, Dear,” the network appears to have squandered much of its “Survivor”-fueled momentum with younger viewers, leaving it waiting for a second edition of that so-called reality series and the Super Bowl to jump-start its lineup come January.

“We feel like the second part of the year, we’re going to be much stronger,” said CBS Television President Leslie Moonves.

CBS’ main standout in terms of year-to-year audience growth is “Everybody Loves Raymond,” which--averaging in excess of 20 million viewers--is not only up 20% from last November but also ranks behind only “Friends” among prime-time sitcoms.

Like ABC, NBC has established little in the way of new series, but several of its long-running shows continue to impress ratings-wise, along with the sophomore class of “The West Wing,” “Third Watch” and “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit.”

“The West Wing,” in particular, has blossomed in the wake of its Emmy win as best dramatic series. The White House-set series averaged more than 18 million viewers in November, putting its Nielsen polling numbers 40%, and over 5 million viewers, ahead of the same stretch last year.

NBC’s “Frasier” has also flourished despite being sent packing to Tuesday, averaging over 18 million viewers last month--a mere 8% decline versus a year ago, when the show kept Thursday night company with “Friends” and “ER.” In its eighth season, the show is beating its principal competitor, ABC’s “Dharma & Greg,” by a margin of almost 5 million viewers.

Time-Slot Domination

Thanks to “ER” and the two “Law & Order” series, NBC also dominated from 10:30 to 11 p.m., the most important window to TV stations, which use sweeps results to set advertising rates. That half-hour is key, because it funnels viewers directly into late local newscasts.

“It’s a big thing for our local affiliates,” said NBC West Coast President Scott Sassa, noting that late news can account for nearly 50% of a station’s revenue.

Buoyed by those stalwarts, NBC was the only major network to enjoy a year-to-year prime-time ratings increase. CBS, at 12.1 million viewers, is off 11%, and Fox took a small dip to roughly 9.9 million.

Though Fox lagged behind year-ago sweeps levels, the network has achieved gains for the season thanks to its sitcom “That ‘70s Show,” new dramas “Dark Angel” and “Boston Public” and the network’s durable Sunday lineup.

Besides NBC, the only broadcast outlets to achieve ratings gains were the WB and UPN. Though final numbers for those networks were delayed by Nielsen processing errors, each built its audience by about 8%, to a projected 4.5 million and 4.2 million viewers, respectively.

For the WB (part-owned by Tribune Co., which owns the Los Angeles Times), the fall has represented a rebound period after a poor 1999-2000 campaign, with its family drama “7th Heaven” ranking as the most-watched program on either of the upstart networks, its viewing family increasing by more than 20% over last year. UPN, meanwhile, has essentially solidified the power boost provided a year ago by wrestling’s “WWF Smackdown!”

Overall, prime-time viewing of the four major networks dropped 5%, or by 2.5 million viewers, compared with November 1999.

Election Fuels Viewership Surge

Granted, at least part of that decrease is attributable to a viewership surge for all-news cable networks due to the presidential election and its aftermath. CNN saw its prime-time audience in November grow by 150%, to 1.6 million viewers nightly, while Fox News Channel and MSNBC also posted sizable gains to 1 million and 900,000 viewers, respectively, since election day.

Daytime programs such as NBC’s “Today” and “Meet the Press” obviously benefited from post-election turmoil as well, along with topical late-night fare from “Saturday Night Live” (up almost 30% versus year-ago viewing) to ABC’s “Politically Incorrect With Bill Maher.”

Notably, all three of the month’s much-hyped miniseries--CBS’ O.J. Simpson defense team saga “American Tragedy” and the biographical “Jackie Bouvier Kennedy Onassis,” plus NBC’s biblical epic “In the Beginning”--were ratings washouts. ABC enjoyed the most success in the movie arena with the “Wonderful World of Disney’s” “Santa Who?,” “The Growing Pains Movie” and a remake of “The Miracle Worker”--no doubt a welcome development at Disney headquarters in Burbank, after the studio-promoting showcase struggled last season.