Full Count Would Yield Win for Gore, Paper Says

Democrat Al Gore would have beaten Republican George W. Bush in Florida and would now be president-elect if all the state’s contested ballots had been error-free and completely counted, according to an analysis of voting patterns published Sunday.

The Miami Herald said the analysis it commissioned indicated that the Democratic vice president would have won a flawless Florida election by 23,000 votes, capturing the state’s key 25 electoral college votes, which now are officially held by Bush, the Republican governor of Texas.

Florida officials certified Bush on Nov. 26 as the winner of the Nov. 7 presidential election, with a 537-vote advantage out of 6 million cast in the state.

For the analysis, the newspaper said its reporters collected data for all of Florida’s 5,885 voting precincts, including absentee ballots and those disqualified for such reasons as showing no vote for president or more than one vote for president.

The extra 185,000 uncounted votes were then shared out to Gore, Bush and third-party candidates, according to ratios drawn from the official tabulations in each precinct. The newspaper said the analysis assumed all ballots included a vote for president, an idea hotly questioned by Republicans.

The newspaper quoted Republicans, who insist the bitter postelection struggle has been clearly settled in Bush’s favor, as saying the analysis carried out by journalism professor Stephen Doig of Arizona State University was “statistical voodoo.”

Doig told the newspaper that Gore’s victory statewide would narrow to 1,443 votes but still would hold up even if as many as 90% of the 185,000 uncounted ballots were excluded on the assumption those voters were ignoring the presidential election and were voting for only state and local offices.