Battery Power Lagging in Clean-Air Contest
California air regulators are proposing a major shift in their strategy for smog-free cars: downplaying battery power in favor of other technologies that may not be as clean, but have more long-run potential for commercial and environmental success.
The new proposal effectively ends the idea--once held out as the solution for California smog--of hundreds of thousands of battery powered cars humming down the freeways. Instead, more consideration will be given to other clean technologies, such as fuel cells, hybrids and natural gas engines.
Under new guidelines that the state Air Resources Board plans to unveil today, pure zero-emission vehicles [ZEVs] will occupy a dramatically diminished position in the 10-year-old program, which was created to ensure their widespread use by 2003.
In 1990, the board mandated that 10% of all vehicles be zero emission by 2003. That was amended earlier this year to 4% pure ZEV and 6% hybrids. Now, under the proposal, it would be changed to 2% pure zero emission, 2% hybrids and fuel cells, and 6% extremely clean gas and other vehicles.
The changes offer auto makers generous incentives to pursue such technologies in lieu of battery cars. Clean cars are critical to achieving healthful air in the Southland, where 70% of the smog comes from tailpipes.
“We have not given up on batteries, but the timetable has been turned back due to lack of progress on batteries in the mid-1990s,” said Air Resources Board spokesman Jerry Martin. “These other technologies have moved faster and caught up, so we are recommending that the zero-emission [vehicle] rule make room for them.”
Between 4,650 and 9,300 of the new cars sold in California over the next three years will have no tailpipe exhaust, depending on incentives auto makers choose. While that is more than are in use today, it is far fewer than the 22,000 vehicles the state air board committed to in September and a fraction of the more than 100,000 electric cars envisioned when the program began in 1990.
Changes to the program are expected to save the auto industry as much as $400 million in compliance costs, according to the air board.
Auto makers and battery experts say limited range and high cost hamper electric cars. A battery car costs about $22,000 more than a comparable gasoline model and typically travels just 70 miles on a charge, though some can go farther, according to officials.
Just two months ago, the nine-member air board told auto makers that 4% of new cars they sell in California in 2003 must be smog-free, while another 6% must be hyper-clean gasoline models. But the board also directed its staff to hold workshops and meetings with the auto makers to find ways to make a smooth transition to the new technologies.
The auto industry, which has opposed the California mandate from its inception, argued that the regulators were forcing it to sell inferior products that people don’t want, at a loss.
Instead, industry officials asked for greater allowance for other technologies, including methanol-powered fuel cells, gasoline-electric hybrid motors, natural gas engines, advanced emissions control systems and miniature electric vehicles. Many of those technologies are the direct result of innovations made in the quest for a car that produces no tailpipe exhaust.
The electric-vehicle program has suffered from fits and starts for years. Mass production was scheduled to have begun in 1998, but industry opposition and concerns about battery performance led the air board and the auto makers to reach a deal that put 2,300 battery cars on California highways.
But production has since ceased as auto makers shifted attention to other technologies, including some that hold the promise of freeing autos from internal combustion engines and petroleum fuel.
“ARB politically doesn’t want to back off the [zero emission] mandate and lose face,” said Greg Dana, vice president for environmental affairs at the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, which represents 13 major car builders. “Even if they have a small number of [such vehicles], they can say we didn’t back off completely. Do these [battery] cars have a long-term viable position in the marketplace? We don’t think so.”
The air board will consider the proposed revisions to the electric-vehicle regulation when it meets Jan. 25.
The proposed changes are not likely to please environmentalists or the auto industry completely. Detroit believes too many battery-powered cars are still required, while environmentalists say the program is at risk of including too few to make the cars affordable.
The state program “is forcing auto makers to produce more and more cars that have less environmental impact,” said V. John White, a lobbyist who represents the Sierra Club. “We wouldn’t have all these other technologies if it weren’t for the ZEV mandate. The regulation is working just fine.”
However, Janet Hathaway of the Natural Resources Defense Council said that unless at least 10,000 electric cars are required each year, mass production will never reach a level to bring down the costs of the battery cars.
Cecile Martin, deputy executive director for the nonprofit California Electric Transportation Coalition, said it is critical that the air board at least begin to get more electric cars on the road.
“Any way you look at this, it has been an extremely positive program,” Martin said. “The main thing is to get the program to begin, be successful and grow over time.”
To accommodate that concern, the Air Resources Board staff proposes to expand the program to require that as many as 16% of new cars sold in 2018 meet the zero-emission vehicle standards.
Under the air board proposal, as many as 2% of the new cars sold in California in 2003 that would have been battery powered under the existing requirements could be permitted to run on gasoline-battery electric motors, fuel cells or “super ultra low emissions” gasoline engines. So-called plug-in hybrid cars have two drive trains, one that runs on batteries for use around town, another powered by gasoline for long trips.
Meanwhile, Ford, DaimlerChrysler and Toyota are experimenting with cars and light trucks powered by fuel cells that convert gasoline or methanol to electricity with low emissions. Progress on those engines is advancing rapidly, and industry officials say they could be available for motorists by the end of the decade.
Moreover, those motors are widely seen as a step toward a hydrogen-powered car, which produces no emissions.
“We are really excited about the fuel cells,” Dana said. “They have real potential to replace the internal combustion engine. There is a light at the end of tunnel on these engines.”
Of the 2% of cars required to be nonpolluting, at least one manufacturer seeks to meet that mandate by selling limited duty battery cars. Called “city cars,” Ford’s Think vehicles will cost about $20,000 and do perhaps 60 miles per hour. They resemble the mini-cars of Europe and can be used in California primarily for short-range urban trips. As many as 23,500 of them could be offered for sale or lease.
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Developing Technology
A new California proposal would give less consideration to battery-powered cars to combat smog and more attention to other clean technologies, such as fuel cells, hybrids and natural gas engines.
