Premier’s Reelection Strategy Could Easily Backfire

Twelve days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak told associates that he was going before parliament to announce his resignation. He changed his mind at the last minute and instead called early general elections, saying it was the right and honorable thing to do to save the country.

On Saturday night, Barak changed course again and shocked all of Israel by announcing that he would quit his post after all.

What happened in 12 days?

With deadly violence and political turmoil continuing to rage unabated, Barak watched his popularity plummet. Polls showed that he would lose his reelection bid by devastating margins. His efforts to form an emergency unity government with the opposition were repeatedly rebuffed. He was making no visible headway in attempts to negotiate an end to fighting with the Palestinians.

“I am not blind to the state of emergency,” Barak responded to a reporter’s question Saturday night.

Barak’s resignation will trigger a special election, only for the prime minister’s post, in 60 days. He will run against the candidate or candidates chosen by other parties represented in the parliament, or Knesset.

Because his action moves the election so far forward, it was widely seen here as a preemptive strike to defuse challenges from within his own political party and from the right-wing opposition’s Benjamin Netanyahu.

But it could easily backfire.

Beyond the internal political machinations, Barak’s resignation is another nail in his government’s coffin. After rising to power in a landslide just a year and a half ago, the highly decorated former army commander is today perceived by many of his onetime supporters as a tragic disappointment. Not only could he not make peace with the Palestinians, they say, but he is also now unable to end war.

And on the right, Barak is accused of sacrificing Israeli security in his crusade to coax Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat into a political agreement. Saturday night, as news of his resignation spread, right-wing Jewish settlers demonstrating outside Netanyahu’s home cheered and said the decision was a year overdue.

The uncertainty of the political situation bodes ill for any additional efforts to negotiate with the Palestinians, who on Saturday were referring to the anticipated 60-day election campaign as a timeout from the pursuit of peace.

Barak insisted that he will use the next 60 days to press for a settlement with the Palestinians, but few analysts here believe that he will make any progress. The entire Israeli system is likely to be, at best, distracted. And Barak may feel the need to woo voters by acting especially tough in cracking down on the revolt.

In fact, there was speculation that Barak’s decision to advance elections and avoid facing Netanyahu signaled his realization that he will not achieve a peace deal, which is seen as the only asset that could help him defeat Netanyahu.

The election move is a gamble. Under the law governing this kind of special election, only seated members of the Knesset can run for prime minister. This would disqualify Netanyahu, a former prime minister--whose candidacy Barak most dreads--and leave him facing Likud leader Ariel Sharon, whom he stands a chance of defeating.

Likud politicians accused Barak of a bald exploitation of legal loopholes to manipulate his power.

“Barak’s trick is kosher,” said Likud Knesset member Uzi Landau. “But it stinks.”

At the same time, a quick election will discourage other legislators who had been contemplating a mini-coup within Barak’s own Labor Party, which has been governing under the name One Israel. Several members of Labor’s pro-peace left wing have criticized Barak harshly in recent days and suggested that they would pick one of their own to run against him. Now they have little time to do so.

Yet Knesset members said Saturday night that they would look for ways to change the laws, making it possible for Netanyahu to run, or go ahead with pending legislation to dissolve the Knesset and hold general elections.

“It’s a risky strategy,” Israeli political scientist David Newman said of Barak’s resignation, “but he felt he was at a dead end now.”

There are other risks: If Barak does win an election held only for prime minister, he will still be saddled with the unruly, intransigent Knesset that has bedeviled his legislative initiatives and made it nearly impossible for him to govern.

The potential advantage is that if he wins, he will have a refreshed mandate, a renewed authority--in theory at least.

Barak, aides said, wanted to sever the prime ministerial race from a wider general election because the former will involve a simpler campaign and allow him to focus attention on his own position and policies.

“By saying, ‘I’m running only on my own mandate,’ Barak is removing the burden [of a Knesset election] from his shoulder,” said Yaron Ezrahi, a political scientist who is close to Barak.

Moving more swiftly to elections gives Barak an initial advantage, Ezrahi said, because Likud and other opposition groups have only begun to organize, raise money and prepare to campaign. Barak, on the other hand, “started running this evening,” Ezrahi said.

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Israel Under Barak

Key political developments in Israel since Prime Minister Ehud Barak was elected:

* May 17, 1999: Ehud Barak is elected prime minister in a landslide, calls vote a mandate for peace, says agreement with Palestinians is his top priority.

* September 1999: Barak and Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat revive negotiations, announce ambitious plans for full-fledged peace by Sept. 13, 2000.

* Dec. 15, 1999: Israel-Syria peace talks launched at highest-ever level.

* January 2000: Talks with Syria collapse over Syrian demand that Israel first commit to withdrawing from entire Golan Heights.

* February 2000: Arafat breaks off talks with Barak.

* March 9, 2000: Barak and Arafat meet at Sharm el Sheik, Egypt, and revive talks.

* May 24, 2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after a two-decade occupation.

* July 9, 2000: Barak’s coalition government unravels as several factions leave over the prime minister’s plan to offer new concessions to the Palestinians.

* July 11, 2000: President Clinton convenes “Camp David II” talks in Maryland. After more than two weeks of intense negotiations, summit ends with no agreement; Barak and Arafat agree to press on with their talks.

* Sept. 28, 2000: Israel’s hawkish opposition leader, Ariel Sharon, visits Jerusalem shrine holy to Jews and Muslims; violent clashes erupt later that day.

* Oct. 17, 2000: Barak and Arafat agree to urge an end to violence at a summit in Egypt mediated by Clinton, but agreement fails to take hold and fighting continues.

* Nov. 28, 2000: With his minority government in tatters, Barak agrees to hold new elections for prime minister and parliament, probably in the spring.

* Dec. 9, 2000: Barak announces intention to resign, says new election will be held in 60 days.

Source: Associated Press