Bush Has Legitimacy, but It’s Fragile

Most Americans say they are now prepared to support George W. Bush as president, even though a solid plurality believes that--if the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed the vote count to continue--Al Gore would have won Florida and the presidency, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

From virtually every angle, the poll underscores the challenge Bush will face in broadening his base of support after the closest presidential contest in more than a century.

Only a slight majority of Americans believes that Bush won the presidency legitimately, the survey found. Likewise, only a slight majority believes that after the controversy Bush can effectively unite the country.

And solid majorities believe he should compromise with congressional Democrats rather than try to push through his campaign proposals to cut income tax rates, fundamentally restructure Social Security and reconfigure federal education programs.

The survey also found enormous ambivalence about the U.S. Supreme Court after last week’s dramatic ruling that ended ballot recounts in Florida and paved the way for Bush’s victory. While half of Americans believe the court’s decision was not based on partisan loyalties, a slightly larger majority--53%--says it agrees with the dissenting four justices who wanted to complete the recount in Florida.

In some ways, the survey suggests that the country is more polarized now than it was during the presidential campaign. If nothing else, the long battle over Florida has turned both parties into hardened camps. Virtually all Republicans now say that they have a favorable impression of Bush, the poll found. But fully two-thirds of Democrats say they view the new president unfavorably--a more hostile assessment than he often received during the campaign.

As on election day, attitudes toward the two candidates and the election’s aftermath divide sharply along the lines of race and gender. Men are more likely than women both to view Bush as the legitimate winner and to regard him favorably. Nonwhites are far more likely than whites to question Bush’s legitimacy and to view him unfavorably. All of these findings suggest that Bush has not yet persuaded the voters who were most skeptical toward him on election day to give him a second look.

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 865 adults nationwide from Thursday through Saturday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Only 28% View Furor Over Election as Minor

One message that rings clear through the survey is the desire for changes in the way the nation conducts--and reports--elections. Americans clearly view the Florida quagmire as a serious concern: Only 28% said that the controversy over the election’s outcome was just a minor problem.

After the election night debacle when the television networks first called Florida for Gore, then called it for Bush, then reversed field again and labeled it too close to call, almost three-fourths of those polled said that the networks should not try to predict the winner of any state until all the polls have closed across the nation.

And after a five-week diet of hanging chads, dimples and butterfly ballots, more than 9 in 10 Americans--including about equal percentages of Democrats, Republicans and independents--say the federal government should require that all “states use the same standardized vote counting system for national elections.”

More radically, 61% of those surveyed said that the nation should junk the electoral college and elect as president the candidate who wins the most popular votes. Not surprisingly, 80% of Democrats think that way now, compared with half that many Republicans.

One positive effect from the photo-finish election may be to convince more Americans that it is worth their while to vote: 30% of those surveyed said that the outcome of this election makes it more likely that they will vote in 2004, while just 6% said it makes them less likely. (Just over 3 in 5 said the controversy would make no difference.)

Almost every participant in the enervating postelection struggle received mixed reviews from the public in the poll. Americans divided almost exactly in half on whether Gore’s campaign handled the Florida controversy appropriately. Bush’s team received slightly better marks, with 55% approving of the way his side handled the struggle. The Florida Supreme Court received a sharp thumbs-down, with 56% saying they disapproved of the role it played; just 35% approved. The media received equivocal grades too: 48% said the media had been unbiased in reporting on the Florida election mess, but 43% considered the news media to have been tilted toward one side or the other.

Even the U.S. Supreme Court, often lauded as above politics, emerged from the Florida controversy with its robes sullied. Overall impressions of the high court remain favorable, with 50% of Americans saying they view it positively and just 31% rating it unfavorably.

But its ruling last week terminating the recount clearly raised concerns. Only 51% of those surveyed said they considered the decision truly nonpartisan; 42% (and two-thirds of Democrats) said it was motivated by political favoritism. More fundamentally, by 53% to 45%, a majority of Americans disagreed with the ruling and said that vote counting should have been allowed to continue.

Split Perspectives Over Supreme Court

Racial divisions on both of those questions were ominous. Most whites agreed with the decision and consider the court above politics. But more than 8 in 10 nonwhites opposed the decision and fully two-thirds considered the court motivated by partisanship.

A surprisingly large number of Americans also said that Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, who voted with the majority to end the recount, should have recused themselves--in Scalia’s case because his son works with a law firm that represented Bush during the controversy, and Thomas because his wife has worked with the Bush transition team. Almost half of those polled said both men should have stepped aside--an unlikely prospect that may now take its place in the long list of “what ifs” left behind by this once-in-a-lifetime election.

On the largest questions, the poll found that the country remains as evenly--and utterly--divided between Bush and Gore as it was on election day. Asked, regardless of who they supported on Nov. 7, how they would vote today, 46% of registered voters said they would pick Gore and 45% Bush--a split comparable to Gore’s razor-thin popular vote victory on election day.

Similarly, asked whether Bush or Gore had shown himself more fit for the White House in the way he has handled the controversy, 44% chose Gore and 42% named Bush.

On each of these questions, election day divisions endure. Most women say that Gore has shown himself better suited for the presidency since election day; most men say Bush. Most whites chose Bush. Fully 7 in 10 nonwhites picked Gore.

An overwhelming three-fourths of Americans say they will support Bush now that Gore has conceded. But doubts about Bush’s victory remain widespread. Asked whether Bush won the presidency legitimately, just 52% say yes; 38% say no. (Nine in 10 Republicans say that Bush won legitimately, but 7 in 10 Democrats say he didn’t. Independents, by 52% to 37%, consider Bush’s victory legitimate.)

At the same time, a plurality of voters believes that, if all the votes in Florida had been counted, it would be Gore who now would be naming Cabinet secretaries. Asked who would have won if the Supreme Court had allowed the recount to continue, 44% said Gore, 33% said Bush and 23% said they did not know. In a measure of the suspicion Bush will face in the opposition party, three-fourths of Democrats said that they believed Gore would have won in a full count. Only three-fifths of Republicans were as confident about Bush’s prospects.

Moreover, large numbers of Democrats and independents believe that Bush’s credibility as president will be damaged if outside groups gain access to the disputed ballots and conclude, through further unofficial recounts, that Gore won the most votes in Florida. More than one-fourth of all Americans (including 43% of Democrats) believe Bush would be badly damaged by such a revelation. An additional 32% said that he would be somewhat damaged. Only about one-third of Americans believe Bush would not be hurt at all.

Even without such a recount, nearly three-fifths of Americans say the controversy over the outcome will make it much harder for Bush to accomplish his goals and keep his campaign promises. Only 52% are confident that he will be an effective leader; 38% are dubious.

One encouraging sign for Bush: His overall favorability rating has inched ahead of Gore’s. Fully 57% of Americans now say they have a favorable impression of the incoming president, while 38% view him unfavorably. That’s slightly better than Gore’s overall rating, with 53% viewing him favorably and 41% unfavorably.

Strong Doubts About Bipartisanship

Still, amid signals from Bush that he intends to emphasize the agenda he ran on, the poll sends up a clear yellow flag. In the survey, most Americans indicated that they are eager for the two parties to cooperate and compromise--but are dubious that they will. Slightly more Americans believe the close election will produce gridlock rather than cooperation. But there is no question that most would prefer the latter.

For instance, with the Senate split 50-50 between the two major parties, almost three-fifths of those surveyed said that the two sides should split leadership responsibilities evenly, as Senate Democrats are proposing. And substantial majorities want Bush to compromise on some of his key campaign priorities.

Asked whether Bush should “push ahead” with his $1.3-trillion tax cut proposal or “compromise with Democrats on the issue of tax cuts,” nearly two-thirds of Americans say he should give ground. (Even Republicans split almost exactly in half, with 47% urging compromise.) On his proposal to divert part of the Social Security payroll tax into individual accounts that workers could invest for their own retirement, 1 in 4 Americans said that he should push ahead. Seven in 10 said he should compromise.

Bush’s plan to give states greater flexibility in spending federal education dollars in return for greater local accountability fares better, but only slightly: 36% said he should push ahead with that plan, while 57% said he should compromise.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Times Poll

Will you support George W. Bush as the next president?

Will support him: 77%

Will not support him: 15%

Don’t know: 8%

*

Did Bush win the election legitimately?

Legitimately: 52%

Not legitimately: 38%

Don’t know: 10%

*

How much confidence do you have that your vote for president was counted?

(Among those who voted)

A lot: 64%

Some: 24%

None: 12%

Don’t know: 3%

Among U.S. adults

Source: L.A. Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

After the Election

Americans believe that the controversy over the presidential election outcome will make it harer for President-elect George W. Bush to accomplish his goals.

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The Election

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following handled the election situation in Florida?

*--*

APPROVE DISAPPROVE Al Gore’s campaign 49% 46% George W. Bush’s campaign 55% 39% Florida Supreme Court 35% 56% U.S. Supreme Court 47% 44%

*--*

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* If the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed all the disputed ballots in Florida to be counted, who do you think would have ended up with the most votes?

Gore: 44%

Bush: 33%

Don’t know: 23%

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* Do you believe the U.S. Supreme Court acted in a nonpartisan way when it ruled in a way that meant ballots would not be counted in Florida, or did the court show political favoritism?

Nonpartisan: 51%

Favoritism: 42%

Don’t know: 7%

*

* Do you believe the Florida Supreme Court acted in a nonpartisan way when it ruled that ballots could be recounted in Florida, or did the court show political favoritism?

Nonpartisan: 49%

Favoritism: 40%

Don’t know: 11%

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* The media and other private groups have requested access to the Florida ballots under the Freedom of Information Act. If independent recounts showed that Gore got the most votes, do you think that Bush’s presidency would be damaged?

Would not be damaged: 33%

Would be badly damaged: 27%

Would be somewhat damaged: 32%

Don’t know: 8%

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Looking Ahead

* Will the close election and the controversy over its outcome make it easier or harder for Bush to accomplish his goals and keep his campaign promises, or will it not make any difference?

Easier: 6%

Harder: 58%

No difference: 31%

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* Will Bush be able to unite the country enough to lead effectively or will his ability to lead be damaged?

Will be able to lead effectively: 52%

Ability to lead will be badly damaged: 11%

Ability to lead will be somewhat damaged: 27%

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* Will the election controversy diminish the president’s influence among world leaders?

Will diminish influence: 31%

Will not diminish influence: 61%

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* In the next Congress, the Senate will be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats and there will be a nearly-even split in the House of Representatives. Do you think the close presidential election will result in the political parties working together to get things done or will it mean four years of gridlock?

Work together: 43%

Gridlock: 46%

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* During the presidential campaign, George W. Bush proposed a $1.3-trillion dollar tax cut over 10 years while his opponent, Al Gore, proposed a combination of smaller tax cuts, decreasing the debt and strengthening social programs. Since a nearly equal number of people voted for both candidates in the most recent election, do you think Bush should push ahead with his tax cut plan once he is president or do you think he should compromise with the Democrats on the issue of tax cuts?

Push ahead: 29%

Compromise: 65%

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* During the presidential campaign, George W. Bush proposed changes to Social Security that included diverting money out of the public fund into private investments. His opponent, Al Gore, proposed shoring up the Social Security fund and allowing additional private retirement investments. Since a nearly equal number of people voted for both candidates in the most recent election, do you think Bush should push ahead with his plans for Social Security once he is president or do you think he should compromise with the Democrats on the issue of Social Security?

Push ahead: 24%

Compromise: 69%

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* During the presidential campaign, George W. Bush proposed changes to the system of public education, including a national voucher plan and mandatory testing. His opponent, Al Gore, also proposed testing but would have increased funding to public schools and opposed going to a voucher system. Since a nearly equal number of people voted for both candidates in the most recent election, do you think Bush should push ahead with his plans for public education once he is president or do you think he should compromise with the Democrats on the issue of public education?

Push ahead: 36%

Compromise: 57%

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Notes: Among U.S. adults. Numbers may not total 100% where “Don’t know” responses are not shown.

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll contacted 865 adults nationwide by telephone Thursday through Saturday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.