Israel’s Electoral Mess

Benjamin Netanyahu says he won’t try to regain the post of Israeli prime minister that he lost last year, contending it’s senseless to run unless parliamentary elections are also held to bring some order out of what has become an “ungovernable” mess. Netanyahu’s decision leaves the field in the scheduled Feb. 6 election to Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who defeated Netanyahu handily 19 months ago but now trails him badly in the polls, and Ariel Sharon, the hawkish leader of the right-wing Likud Party.

Shimon Peres, a former prime minister, still may challenge Barak from the left. Barak’s standing in the polls is dismally low, and it’s possible Peres could outpoll him and enter into a runoff against Sharon. However, Peres, who is 77 and has been in public life since the founding of the Israeli state more than 50 years ago, is a perpetual loser in national elections and probably regarded by most Israelis as too dovish for what the times require.

Netanyahu might yet change his mind and run. A special law rammed through the Knesset would allow him to run even though he doesn’t have a parliamentary seat. In or out of the race, he’s right about the political paralysis that only new parliamentary elections might resolve. Americans look for bipartisanship in their nearly evenly divided new Congress; Israelis have burdened themselves with a Knesset in which 16 squabbling parties are represented. The inevitable result for Israel is that small, narrowly based parties exercise disproportionate power. It’s not a new problem in Israel, but never has it been more politically disabling or come at a more sensitive time.

Barak’s political fortunes can improve if negotiations are restarted with the Palestinians and show some evidence of moving ahead. The two sides are meeting separately with U.S. officials in Washington this week, the first encouraging sign since the latest round of Mideast violence erupted in late September. It’s possible that bilateral talks could follow, with Barak reportedly ready to offer concessions that include handing over 95% of the West Bank to Palestinian control along with de facto sovereignty over Islamic holy sites on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount.

Israel’s right-wing politicians fiercely oppose these concessions. Barak hopes that if he can present voters with tangible progress in the peace talks he can be reelected. As always, he needs cooperation from his negotiating partners, and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has already said he’s not inclined to do Barak any favors. Perhaps the prospect of Ariel Sharon as Israel’s next prime minister will prompt a reassessment.