Arizona Democrats May Gain Clout From Remapping

Long a bastion of conservative Republican politics, Arizona is prepared for a dramatic reshaping of its political landscape.

Arizona is among four states that will gain two seats in Congress because of population increases over the past decade. As a result, the state will send eight people to the House of Representatives in the 2002 election.

Overall, the U.S. population rose to 281,421,906, up 13.2% from 1990, according to the census figures released Thursday.

The first numbers from the 2000 national count provided a few surprises--North Carolina picked up a House seat although Indiana and Michigan unexpectedly lost representatives. And Florida and Georgia fared better than some experts had predicted, each gaining two seats.

But the figures also confirmed a decade-long trend of a population shift from the North and Midwest to the South and West.

For a winner like Arizona, the increase may seem like a victory for the Republican Party, which holds five of the state’s six current congressional seats and controls the state Legislature. But for the first time, state lawmakers will not control the process of redrawing Arizona’s congressional map. The boundaries will be set by an independent commission.

Many Democrats argue that independent redistricting will improve the party’s chances at winning House seats throughout the state.

“People think you get two new seats, you don’t. You get eight new seats,” state Democratic Party Chairman Mark Fleisher said. “It’s going to be a whole new ball game. They couldn’t slice up the pie with eight and give us only one.”

According to the census, Arizona has added 1.5 million people since 1990, giving it a population of 5,130,632. That’s a 40% increase, the second-fastest growth rate in the country, behind Nevada.

Democrats see the post-census redistricting as an opportunity for Arizona’s congressional delegation to better reflect the state’s population, which they say has become more diverse and less conservative.

Many of Arizona’s new residents, including a booming immigrant population, are moderate or liberal, observers say.

Consider that President-elect Bush won the state with only a narrow margin over Democrat Al Gore, despite the support of Republican Gov. Jane Dee Hull and Sen. John McCain.

And four years ago, Bill Clinton became the first Democrat to carry Arizona in a presidential election since Harry Truman.

Still, the majority of Arizona’s elected officials are Republicans. Things could change in 2002, when the new seats are added.

In November, voters approved creating an Independent Redistricting Commission to draw Arizona’s new political boundaries. That job used to be done by the Legislature, which often sought to protect Republican incumbents and cluster Democrats into just a few districts.

If the five-member commission creates more so-called swing districts that are closely split between Republicans and Democrats, minorities and moderates are expected to get more attention from candidates.

“I think you’re going to see a shift to people who can draw from both sides,” said Daniel Lewis, a Navajo Indian who is a senior vice president at Bank of America.

Political Effect of Population Shifts Are Hard to Predict

As for the ultimate impact of the redistricting, Bruce Merrill, an Arizona State University pollster, echoes the view of many political observers.

“I don’t think anybody really knows what’s going to happen,” Merrill said.

Besides Arizona, other states are gaining congressional seats: California gains one to have 53 seats; Colorado gains one to have seven seats; and Florida gains two to have 25 seats.

Other winners: Georgia gains two to have 13 seats; Nevada gains one to have three seats; North Carolina gains one to have 13 seats; and Texas gains two to have 32 seats.

Connecticut loses one to leave five seats; Illinois loses one to leave 19 seats; Indiana loses one to leave nine seats; Michigan loses one to leave 15 seats; and Mississippi loses one to leave four seats.

Other losing states: New York loses two to leave 29 seats; Ohio loses one to leave 18 seats; Oklahoma loses one to leave five seats; Pennsylvania loses two to leave 19 seats; and Wisconsin loses one to leave eight seats.