GOP Senate Candidates Hope Debate Ignites Campaign

With the March 7 primary just weeks away, the sleepy Republican race for the U.S. Senate nomination may get a jolt of caffeine tonight.

The top three GOP candidates hope their first debate, at a state Republican gathering in Burlingame, will help them break through a heavy fog of voter disinterest.

“This might be the only attention the campaign gets,” said Rep. Tom Campbell of San Jose, the GOP front-runner.

Lacking the star power and big bucks that captivated Californians in past Senate contests, the Republicans are desperate for any attention grabber to help in the uphill battle to unseat Democrat Dianne Feinstein. But the absence of live television coverage--and the potentially overshadowing presence of presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain, fresh from his New Hampshire victory--will probably dampen the debate’s impact.

Campbell, an abortion rights, pro-gun-control moderate from Silicon Valley, will face two Southern California challengers warring for the title of “most conservative.” Campbell believes his moderate social views and fiscal conservatism mirror the beliefs of most California voters and would be a one-two punch capable of knocking out the moderate Feinstein in November.

His Republican rivals, San Diego County Supervisor Bill Horn and state Sen. Ray Haynes of Riverside, aim their political venom at Campbell first, Feinstein second.

“The question the Republican Party needs to ask itself is: Are we afraid of what we believe, or are we going to capitulate to the left as Campbell has done?” said Haynes, whose Christian, anti-gun-control agenda has been the bedrock of his state legislative career.

Haynes’ recent campaign has consisted primarily of pouncing, in press releases and on his Web site, on what he calls Campbell’s “left-wing” agenda. Topping the list is Campbell’s opposition to state Proposition 22, an initiative that would ban recognition of gay marriages in California and one that Haynes supports. Campbell says that the measure is unnecessary, and that a person’s sexual preference is nobody’s business.

Campbell also supports taxation of e-commerce, which Haynes and Horn adamantly oppose. To exempt Internet purchases from sales tax, while levying the tax on the same items when sold in stores, would drain California’s tax base, Campbell argues.

“I look forward to going after him,” said Horn, an avocado grower running on core conservative ideals: lower taxes, deregulation and rebuilding American military strength.

Larry Gerston, a political scientist at San Jose State University, said Campbell is in a perfect spot.

Many California Republicans will forgive Campbell’s divergent social views because of his very strong record as a fiscal conservative on tax and budget issues, Gerston said. He added that Campbell’s vocal call for President Clinton’s impeachment during the Monica Lewinsky scandal will score some points.

Campbell’s nemesis in the GOP--the Christian right--will probably split its votes between Horn and Haynes, negating its impact in the primary, he said. “The extreme right wing wants to kill this guy, and they’ll turn out to be the perfect foil for him,” Gerston said.

Some GOP campaign advisors want to agree--but harbor doubts. Campbell’s maverick tendencies have dismayed many Republicans, moderate and conservative. Two months ago, Campbell proposed giving cities the authority to distribute illegal drugs to combat crime--and was ripped into by both Feinstein’s campaign and his GOP rivals.

Campbell also defied the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives this past term and supported sweeping campaign finance reform. The legislation called for a ban on unrestricted “soft money” contributions to political parties, and would maintain limits on individual campaign contributions to candidates. Feinstein supported similar legislation in the U.S. Senate.

“I think many Republicans had high hopes for Campbell because he seems so articulate. But he doesn’t seem to depict good political judgment,” said GOP consultant Arnie Steinberg. “He stakes out positions that seem almost inflammatory to the Republican base.”

Both Haynes and Horn say that loyal Republicans won’t vote for Campbell, and that he can’t beat Feinstein without their support.

That was definitely the case with Campbell’s 1992 U.S. Senate bid, when he clashed with conservative Los Angeles radio and television commentator Bruce Herschensohn and the late Rep. Sonny Bono.

Herschensohn attacked Campbell as a liberal and scored an upset victory for the Republican nomination--only to be beaten by Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in the general election.

This time around, California has a blanket primary, allowing voters to cast ballots for candidates of any political party March 7.

Campbell campaigned for that very change after his 1992 defeat, and believes his knack for bucking the Republican mainstream will entice enough votes from moderate Democrats and independents to deliver him the GOP nomination.

“I’m not going to run to the right in this debate,” Campbell said. “The more criticism I get from my opponents, the better. They actually do me a favor.”

As for Horn, his biggest drawback is his political inexperience: He’s never run for office outside San Diego County, said Ann Shanahan-Walsh, a GOP political consultant from San Diego. His campaign issues--a strong national defense, elimination of the IRS and a tough stance against China--also are too stale for California’s progressive Republicans, she said.

“Horn tends to see issues in very narrow terms,” Shanahan-Walsh said. “Quite frankly, I was astounded when he got into the race. He’s always been considered a lightweight down here.”

She expects Campbell to make mincemeat out of both challengers tonight.

Campbell, a Harvard-educated lawyer and Stanford law professor, displayed a razor-sharp intellect during his debates with Herschensohn in the 1992 race--though he sometimes sliced himself as deeply as he did his opponent, Shanahan-Walsh said.

“Herschensohn was nowhere his intellectual equal, and Tom does not suffer fools well,” she said. “But Campbell lost a lot of credibility because he became unbelievably arrogant.”