He Might Be Just Like Dad--and Lose

George W. Bush’s snub of last weekend’s California Republican convention represents arrogance rooted in the belief that his control of the party machinery ultimately guarantees him the presidential nomination. However, if the GOP establishment continues trying to protect its questionable investment by propping up the paper tiger from Texas, it is doing Al Gore the biggest favor since Naomi Wolf switched him into cooler clothes.

It should be clear to party bosses that the man suspected by some to be an empty suit pre-New Hampshire, is now, post-New Hampshire, the emperor without clothes. They should admit about Bush what they know in their hearts, that in the words used by Gertrude Stein to describe Oakland, “There is no there there.”

I say this as one Republican who is outraged by the stupidity of the national party hierarchy in anointing an untested politician as the nominee before a single caucus or primary vote was cast. These are the same geniuses who squandered the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress and whose current strategy is to stand for nothing, for fear of criticism by the Democrats.

Campaigns have a feel, and so far Bush’s feels like that of his father’s in 1992, the reelection effort that turned the words “campaign strategy” into an oxymoron. President Bush behaved as though automatic reelection was an entitlement and the campaign a nuisance to be endured. His son has been campaigning as if the nomination is his by inheritance and the primaries a formality to be dispensed with.

The compassionate conservative has proved a calamitous communicator, with speeches that are flat and uninspiring. One senses that the Bush camp wouldn’t recognize a soaring phrase or elegant passage if it came wrapped around a wad of campaign cash. His people seem afraid to insert “applause lines” into his speeches because the clapping might wake up audience members who have fallen asleep.

He does excel at one thing, but there’s more to leadership than shaking hands and slapping backs. His skill around people ends if there’s a threat of questions, as evidenced by his holding zero town hall meetings in New Hampshire, compared with John McCain’s 114.

Like many Republicans, I too at first saw W as our ticket back to the White House, but that was before alarm bells went off. I was disappointed when he avoided the first two New Hampshire debates, a play-it-safe and ultimately counter-productive tactic that slighted New Hampshirites with long memories.

When he finally did debate, we found out why he’d been afraid to show up sooner. I was upset when he accused congressional Republicans of “balancing the budget on the backs of the poor,” the exact demonizing language used by Democrats for years. And I was angry when he attacked former judge and cultural watchdog Robert Bork, a gratuitous slap at a conservative intellectual giant by a campaign that would drown in a think tank.

Bush is now on the attack in South Carolina, trying to persuade voters in the upcoming primary that McCain is actually the establishment candidate, even though W has the endorsement of 44 senators and the party bosses. So far, he has not been as adept at convincing people he’s ready to be president as his Austin crowd has been at fooling the GOP hierarchy into believing his victory is inevitable.

President Bush didn’t know how accurate he was in referring to his son as “boy” at a campaign rally. The race for the GOP nomination is indeed between “boy” Bush and “man” McCain. In fact, “McCain is the man” might not be a bad campaign slogan for the ex-POW who stood up to his captors in Vietnam, compared with an opponent who canceled an election eve event in New Hampshire out of fear that protesters might show up.

The person whose decisions led to the New Hampshire debacle, Bush guru Karl Rove, fancies himself another Lee Atwater, the now-deceased brilliant strategist behind the 1988 campaign of Bush the elder. The spinning Atwater is doing in his grave tops the campaign spin put out by Rove thus far.

This outburst ends my 13-year association with the Bushes and will cost me friends. Yet more Republicans need to say out loud what they know inside: A nominee Bush would be crushed by Gore. For any hope of victory, McCain must carry his banner of honor, courage and truth on behalf of the GOP this fall.